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Ms. Deniz O Igan
and
Zhibo Tan
Exploiting a granular panel dataset that breaks down capital inflows into FDI, portfolio and other categories, and distinguishes between credit to the household sector and to the corporate sector, we investigate the association between capital inflows and credit growth. We find that non-FDI capital inflows boost credit growth and increase the likelihood of credit booms in both household and corporate sectors. For household credit growth, the composition of capital inflows appears to be more important than financial system characteristics. In contrast, for corporate credit growth, both the composition and the financial system matter. Regardless of sectors and financial systems, net other inflows are always linked to rapid credit growth. Firm-level data corroborate these findings and hint at a causal link: net other inflows are related to more rapid credit growth for firms that rely more heavily on external financing. Further explorations on how capital flows translate into more credit indicate that both demand and supply side factors play a role.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

The Global Financial Stability Report (GSFR), published twice a year by the IMF, provides timely analysis of developments in mature and emerging market countries and seeks to identify potential fault lines in the global financial system that could lead to crisis. The GFSR aims to deepen its readers’ understanding of global capital flows, which play a critical role as an engine of world economic growth. Along with the IMF’s semiannual World Economic Outlook, the GFSR is a key vehicle for the IMF’s multilateral surveillance. The Global Financial Stability Report was created to provide a more frequent assessment of global financial markets and to address emerging market financing in a global context. The report focuses on current conditions in global financial markets, highlighting issues of financial imbalances, and of a structural nature, that could pose risks to financial market stability and sustained market access by emerging market borrowers. The GFSR focuses on relevant contemporary issues, not attempting to be a comprehensive survey of all potential risks. It also draws out the financial ramifications of economic imbalances highlighted by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. It regularly contains, as a special feature, articles on structural or systemic issues relevant to international financial stability.