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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This issue of the IMF Research Perspective looks at the inter-connectedness of the world economic system and how diverse shocks can affect global supply chains. The articles in this issue track the way COVID-19 triggered disruptions in the supply chain and explains why trade networks are so difficult to disentangle. However, the pandemic is not the only event affecting global supply chains; cross-border spillovers of technology wars and natural disasters are other factors to consider. The overarching message from these articles is clear: there is a need for international cooperation to deal with the consequences of these shocks—whether it is ending the COVID-19 pandemic or mitigating climate change.
Tao Sun
This paper analyzes the transmission of global liquidity to the ASEAN-5 countries (ASEAN-5), including the impact on financial landscapes and risks to financial stability. It finds that global liquidity transmission and changing financial landscapes have contributed to increases in risks to financial stability in ASEAN-5. Therefore, policymakers in ASEAN-5 should prepare for possible liquidity tightening, strengthen regulation of nonbanks, and establish a comprehensive financial stability framework. A number of couontries are well-advanced in this process.
Mr. Simon T Gray
and
Ms. Runchana Pongsaparn
The paper discusses the reasons for central bank (CB) issuance of securities, and reasons for choosing different approaches e.g. in maturities and target market. It provides evidence on the range of different approaches taken by those CBs which do issue, as well as suggesting reasons why some CBs do not; and provides operational guidelines on the major building blocks of the issuance of CB securities.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note on Monetary Liquidity Frameworks on Malaysia’s inflation analyzes that it has returned to a more stable path, after some wider fluctuations before and during the global financial crisis. On the liability side, Malaysian banks’ liquidity is based largely on deposits. The increase in foreign reserves at the Central Bank is a major driver of the growth of the Bank Negara Malaysia’s balance sheet. Monetary operations with Islamic banks are carried out through specific Shariah-compliant instruments.
Mr. Charles Enoch
,
Mr. Dewitt D Marston
, and
Mr. Michael W Taylor

Abstract

Since the mid-1990s, economic observers have kept a watchful eye on the financial sector because of its potential to spark economic crises. Banks in particular have come under close scrutiny. This book offers guidance on setting up regulatory and supervisory regimes that can help to prevent crises, and on dealing with turmoil, should a crisis erupt. It contains a collection of essays on a wide range of issues useful to bolstering the banking and financial sector.

Mr. Arto Kovanen
,
Mr. Olivier M Frecaut
,
Ms. Barbara E Baldwin
, and
Mr. Charles Enoch
This study looks at the first two years of the banking crisis that erupted in Indonesia in late 1997. It finds that the banking sector was weak at the outset, and that governance problems intensified the crisis and seriously delayed its resolution. Although a strategy was put in place over the initial months, protracted delays in implementation led to an explosion in the costs of resolution. By end-1999, the critical elements to reconstruct the banking system were in place, and the political transition seemed completed; but, in a continuing unsettled environment, the new authorities still faced daunting challenges. This study looks at the first two years of the banking crisis that erupted in Indonesia in late 1997. It finds that the banking sector was weak at the outset, and that governance problems intensified the crisis and seriously delayed its resolution. Although a strategy was put in place over the initial months, protracted delays in implementation led to an explosion in the costs of resolution. By end-1999, the critical elements to reconstruct the banking system were in place, and the political transition seemed completed; but, in a continuing unsettled environment, the new authorities still faced daunting challenges. This study looks at the first two years of the banking crisis that erupted in Indonesia in late 1997. It finds that the banking sector was weak at the outset, and that governance problems intensified the crisis and seriously delayed its resolution. Although a strategy was put in place over the initial months, protracted delays in implementation led to an explosion in the costs of resolution. By end-1999, the critical elements to reconstruct the banking system were in place, and the political transition seemed completed; but, in a continuing unsettled environment, the new authorities still faced daunting challenges.
Mr. Paul R Masson
The paper surveys the types of models producing multiple equilibria in financial markets. It argues that such models are consistent with observed phenomena, such as the greater volatility of financial asset prices than of macroeconomic fundamentals. Alternative explanations are compared with the stylized facts concerning capital flows, portfolio shifts, and exchange rate crises. Implications for crisis prediction and prevention are then discussed.
Mr. Se-Jik Kim
and
Mr. Mark R. Stone
Different levels of corporate leverage are used in this paper to help explain the wide range of post-crisis output adjustment across East Asia. In the model developed here, highly leveraged firms facing a cutoff of capital inflows are threatened by bankruptcy. These firms respond by eliminating investment and selling their capital goods-at a discount-to try to stay afloat. Lower investment and wasteful capital sales shrink the aggregate capital stock, trigger deflationary pressures, and contract overall output. The available data are broadly consistent with the assumptions and predictions of the model.