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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 31 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Effective Fiscal-Monetary Interactions in Severe Recessions
Mr. Jiaqian Chen
,
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
,
Carlos Goncalves
,
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
,
Martina Hengge
,
Zoltan Jakab
, and
Jesper Lindé
The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent need for policy support have called the traditional separation between fiscal and monetary policies into question. Based on simulations of an open economy DSGE model calibrated to emerging and advance economies and case study evidence, the analysis shows when constraints are binding a more integrated approach of looking at policies can lead to a better policy mix and ultimately better macroeconomic outcomes under certain circumstances. Nonetheless, such an approach entails risks, necessitating a clear assessment of each country’s circumstances as well as safeguards to protect the credibility of the existing institutional framework.
Keywords:
monetary policy rate; government spending hike; recession scenario; rate in Botswana; hike in liquidity trap; open economy; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Fiscal stimulus; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Caught in the Crosswinds: The Experiences of Selected Economies Responding to External Volatility with Multiple Policy Levers
Ms. Ghada Fayad
A case study approach is used to assess the multi-pronged policy response of seven small financially open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes to external shocks following the global financial crisis. FX intervention was frequently used— including during outflow episodes to prevent disorderly depreciation and preserve financial stability. Monetary policy often considered both financial and external stability. Capital flow management measures were sometimes calibrated symmetrically over the cycle while macroprudential measures were mostly deployed during inflow episodes. Assessment of the macroeconomic conditions paints an inconclusive picture on the benefits or costs of such policies, suggesting the need for further analysis.
Keywords:
emerging markets; monetary and exchange rate policies; inflation targeting; foreign exchange intervention; capital flows; macroprudential measures.; WP; monetary policy decision; exchange rate volatility; inflation targeting regime; monetary policy independence; FX turnover BIS data; macroprudential measures; inflation expectation; depreciation pressure; Inflation; Exchange rates; Financial sector stability; Depreciation; Central bank policy rate; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
,
Mr. Jaewoo Lee
, and
Umang Rawat
Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; real interest rate; rate of interest; demographics; interest rates; capital account openness; world interest rate; interest rate adjustment; dependency ratio; real interest rate increase; adjustment to saving; interest rate environment; aging speed; Real interest rates; Aging; Demographic change; Long term interest rates; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Asean-5 Cluster Report: Evolution of Monetary Policy Frameworks
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper examines the evolution of monetary policy frameworks of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-5 economies, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policies in advanced economies. Monetary policy frameworks of the ASEAN-5 economies have on the whole performed well since the crisis, delivering both price and financial stability during a period of significant domestic and regional transformation and global macroeconomic and financial turmoil. Not surprisingly, therefore, successful outcomes in most cases entailed significant changes to operating frameworks and refinement of policy objectives.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; monetary policy; interest rate; economy; monetary policy framework; monetary management; foreign exchange; corridor band; policy rate; economies well; monetary policy autonomy; monetary policy strategy; exchange rates corridor band; monetary policy independence; policy interest rate corridor; monetary policy response; Exchange rate flexibility; Exchange rates; Monetary policy frameworks; Capital inflows; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Issuance of Central Bank Securities: International Experiences and Guidelines
Mr. Simon T Gray
and
Ms. Runchana Pongsaparn
The paper discusses the reasons for central bank (CB) issuance of securities, and reasons for choosing different approaches e.g. in maturities and target market. It provides evidence on the range of different approaches taken by those CBs which do issue, as well as suggesting reasons why some CBs do not; and provides operational guidelines on the major building blocks of the issuance of CB securities.
Keywords:
WP; CB Securities; market; liquidity; coupon bond; proceeds
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Monetary Tightening: Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises
Mr. Julio Escolano
,
Ms. Christina Kolerus
, and
Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana
This paper finds that tightening global financial conditions can worsen emerging economies’ public debt dynamics through an increasing interest rate-growth differential, particularly if coupled with high global risk aversion. Latin America and emerging Europe are the regions most likely to be adversely affected. In addition, historical evidence—analyzed by means of a Poisson count model—suggests that the frequency of sovereign debt crises increases in emerging economies at the early stage of U.S. monetary tightening cycles, at times in which the term spread also rises. The timing may be related to abrupt switches of expectations about the future course of policy in the early stages of tightening cycles.
Keywords:
WP; debt crisis; Debt dynamics; emerging markets; sovereign debt crisis; unconventional; EM interest rates; EMS Interest Rate Growth Differential; growth differential; non-resident debt; EM debt dynamics; debt fundamentals; Bond yields; Yield curve; Monetary tightening; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2010 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund
The Thai economy has demonstrated its strength in its rapid rebound from the global crisis. But the loss of its former dynamism has slowed trend growth and left it largely dependent on exports. Executive Directors encourage an infrastructure-led growth strategy to make a difference to Thailand’s medium-term outlook. The significant obstacles to this strategy is that large infrastructure projects are particularly complex, with difficulties at the design, contracting, and implementation phases. An infrastructure-led growth strategy would also require budgetary resources and strengthening the medium-term fiscal framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy response; fiscal policy; stimulus package; fiscal policy space; sizeable fiscal policy; FSMP II; committee's decision; Exports; Central bank policy rate; Public sector; Credit; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth
Mr. Shekhar Aiyar
and
Mr. Ivan Tchakarov
External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to the US has fallen in recent years, the US remains Thailand's largest export destination. We use a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the possible impact of a U.S. slowdown on Thai growth. We find that a 1 percent slowdown in U.S. growth in 2008-relative to the baseline forecast-could have an upper-bound impact on Thai GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; Phillips curve
Cover IMF Working Papers
Testing Real Interest Parity in Emerging Markets
Mr. Abhisek Banerjee
and
Mr. Manmohan Singh
The paper finds significant deviations between short-term emerging market real interest rates and world real interest rates primarily due to the inflationary expectations of the local investor base. We test for long-run real interest convergence in emerging markets using a time varying panel unit root test proposed by Pesaran to capture the improved macro-economic fundamentals since early 1990s. We also estimate the speed of convergence in the presence of a shock. The paper suggests that real interest rates in the emerging markets show some convergence in the long run but real interest parity does not hold. Our results also find that the speed of adjustment of real rates to a shock is estimated to differ significantly across the emerging markets. Measured by their half-life, some emerging markets in Asia, E.Europe and S.Africa, where real interest rates are generally low, take much longer to adjust than where real interest rates are generally high (Latin America, Turkey). From a policy perspective, encouraging foreign investors to take direct exposure at the short end of the local debt market could lower the real interest rates in some emerging markets.
Keywords:
WP; real interest rate differential; investor; nominal interest rate
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Interest Rates in Business Cycle Fluctuations in Emerging Market Countries: The Case of Thailand
Mr. Ivan Tchakarov
and
Mr. Selim A Elekdag
Emerging market countries have enjoyed an exceptionally favorable economic environment throughout 2004, 2005, and early 2006. In particular, accommodative U.S. monetary policy in recent years has helped create an environment of low interest rates in international capital markets. However, if world interest rates were to take a sudden upward course, this would lead to less hospitable financing conditions for emerging market countries. The purpose of this paper is to measure the effects of world interest rate shocks on real activity in Thailand. The analysis incorporates balance sheet related credit market frictions into the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM) and finds that Thailand would best minimize the adverse effects of rising world interest rates if it were to follow a flexible exchange rate regime.
Keywords:
WP; price; real interest rate; nominal interest rate; yield; Thailand