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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

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Cover IMF Working Papers
External Financing Dependence and Corporate Saving in ASEAN5
Xin Li
Using firm-level data on ASEAN5, this paper studies the differential effects of macro-financial and structural factors on corporate saving behavior through the lens of external financing dependence. The finding suggests that non-financial corporations in ASEAN5 have been subject to binding financial constraints over the past two decades. Greater capital account openness or exchange rate depreciation reduces the average saving rate of industries with low dependence on external funds, while it increases the saving rate of industries with high dependence on external funds. The effects are greater for export-oriented industries. An improvement in banking sector competition, banks’ lending efficiency, or policy clarity is associated with lower saving rate of firms across the board.
Keywords:
ASEAN countries; corporate saving; external financing need; export-orientation; financial constraint; capital account openness; exchange rate depreciation.; WP; saving rate; high-tech company; Level analysis; tech firm; firm's use; precautionary saving theory; saving behavior; use of external finance; exchange rate depreciation; Financial sector development; Commercial banks; Capital flows; Currencies; Precautionary savings; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Myanmar: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation focuses on Myanmar’s near- and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before COVID-19 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. It, therefore, does not reflect the implications of these developments and related policy priorities. These developments have greatly amplified uncertainty and could heighten downside risks around the outlook. The IMF staff is closely monitoring the situation, including related policy responses from the authorities, and will continue to work on assessing its impact in the Myanmar economy. Although long-term prospects remain favorable, near-term growth is likely to remain below potential as the correction in real estate market and continued uncertainty weighs on investor sentiment in the runup to the 2020 elections. Starting FY2020/21, bank deleveraging will further slow credit and constrain gross domestic product growth as borrower’s true ability to repay is revealed with term loans coming due and banks restructure in earnest.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBM financing; financing; CDOT; CBM; headline inflation; FX auction rule; foreign exchange; monetary policy effectiveness; financing option; External sector statistics; Monetary operations; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific; Exchange rates
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Risk Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note on the risk assessment for Thailand discusses that the Thai banking system shows a substantial resilience to severe shocks. The solvency stress tests indicate that the largest banks can withstand an adverse scenario broadly as severe as the Asian financial crisis. While three banks would deplete their capital conservation buffer (CCB) under the adverse scenario, recapitalization needs would be minimal. A battery of complementary sensitivity stress tests, which allows to cover in more detail certain risk factors, also confirmed the overall picture of a resilient baking system: no particular vulnerability emerged from the analysis of the bond portfolio to an increase in government and corporate spreads, exposure to foreign exchange risk, and concentration risk in the loan portfolio, with the possible exception of one entity with a particular concentration on single-name exposures. The liquidity stress test on investment funds (IFs) showed that they would be able to withstand a severe redemption shock and its impact on the banks and the bond market would be limited.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; investment funds; central bank; fund family; liquid asset; fixed income; interest rate; mutual fund; banking sector; foreign exchange; sensitivity analysis; Stress testing; Mutual funds; Commercial banks; Currencies; Liquidity requirements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance-Basel Core Principles For Effective Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Detailed Assessment of Observance on the Basel Core Principles (BCP) for effective banking supervision on Thailand highlights that there have been significant enhancements to the legal framework and the supervisory process since the last BCP review, resulting in high compliance. The commercial banking sector appears to be sound and stable with a diversified lending profile and a steady source of funding. The involvement of other ministerial authorities in Specialized Financial Institutions supervision may affect standard-setting processes and the mindset of key decision makers for commercial banks when trying to level regulatory standards. The supervisory framework and practices provide the foundation for the continued development of risk-based supervision. Notifications and examination manuals increasingly focus on analysis of qualitative factors such as governance, risk management and risk appetite statements to determine the bank’s composite rating. The report recommends that efficiency of enforcement actions would be increased by aligning Financial Institutions Business Act requirements and Bank of Thailand internal practices.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BOT supervisor; risk management; BOT notification No. FPG; senior management; risk profile; credit risk; parent company; business strategy; Trade balance; Market risk; Commercial banks; Stress testing; Operational risk; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses Thailand’s robust policy framework and ample buffers continue to underpin its resilience to external headwinds. The authorities have taken measures to strengthen medium-term fiscal management and financial stability. With respect to the outlook, growth is projected to slow down to about 3 percent in 2019–20 reflecting external and domestic headwinds. On the external side, the projected slowdown in global demand and uncertainty about trade tensions are expected to weigh on exports throughout 2019. Policies should aim at boosting growth, while promoting domestic and external rebalancing and making growth more inclusive. The IMF staff recommends a front-loaded fiscal impulse in FY 2020. Thailand should use available fiscal space judiciously to spur domestic demand and support potential output. Implementation of macro-critical public infrastructure projects would also crowd in private investment. The report also highlights that structural reforms aimed at improving the implementation of public investment, strengthen social safety nets, and raise productivity in an increasingly digital economy, would boost growth and enhance its inclusiveness.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; U.S. dollar; government; headline inflation; housing loan demand; National Anti-Corruption Strategy; training scheme; Thai baht; condo price; Financial sector stability; Trade balance; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on Thailand highlights that assets of the insurance and mutual fund sectors have doubled as a share of gross domestic product over the last decade, and capital markets are largely on par with regional peers. The report discusses significant slowdown in China and advanced economies, a sharp rise in risk premia, and entrenched low inflation would adversely impact the financial system. Stress tests results suggest that the banking sector is resilient to severe shocks and that systemic and contagion risks stemming from interlinkages are limited. Financial system oversight is generally strong, but the operational independence of supervisory agencies can be strengthened further. The operational independence of supervisory agencies can be strengthened further by reducing the involvement of the Ministry of Finance in prudential issues and ensuring that each agency has full control over decisions that lie within its areas of responsibility.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial system; U.S. dollar; bank; bank resolvability assessment; cash flow; hurdle rate; recovery plan; bank distress; resolution planning; headline inflation; asset quality; Trade balance; Commercial banks; Financial sector stability; Liquidity stress testing; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global
Cover The ASEAN Way
The ASEAN Way
Sustaining Growth and Stability
Ms. Ana Corbacho
and
Mr. Shanaka J Peiris

Abstract

The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN­5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.

Keywords:
BOOK; monetary policy; exchange rate; economy; inflation expectation; transmission mechanism; monetary policy framework; ASEAN economy; Association of Southeast Asian Nations-5; inflation-targeting regime; Macroprudential policy; Financial sector stability; Inflation; Foreign exchange intervention; Global; Asia and Pacific; North America; Southeast Asia; Europe; countercyclical monetary policy; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Legal Protection: Liability and Immunity Arrangements of Central Banks and Financial Supervisors
Mr. Ashraf Khan
This paper argues that central bank legal protection contributes to safeguarding a central bank and its financial supervisor’s independence, especially for conducting monetary and financial stability policy. However, such legal protection also entails enhanced accountability. To this end, the paper provides a selected overview of legal protection for central banks and financial supervisors (if the supervisor is part of the central bank), focusing on liability, immunity, and indemnification arrangements, and based on the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database. The paper also uses data from the IMF’s Article IV and FSAP Database, and the IMF MCM’s Technical Assistance Database. It lists selected country cases for illustrative purposes. It introduces the concepts of “appropriate legal protection” and “function-specific legal protection” as topics for further research.
Keywords:
WP; central bank; government; country; monetary policy; staff; central banking; financial supervision; financial regulation; law; liability; immunity; technical assistance; central bank law; civil servant statute; State agency; central bank staff; liability standard; central bank liability; central bank governor; indemnification arrangement; liability regime; central bank website; State liability; central bank liability standard; Central bank legislation; Legal support in revenue administration; Central bank autonomy; Central bank governance; Global; Asia and Pacific; financial supervisor
Cover Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential
Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential
Mr. Luis E Breuer
,
Mr. Jaime Guajardo
, and
Mr. Tidiane Kinda

Abstract

Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overview by former Finance Minister Chatib Basri, with subsequent chapters covering diverse sectors of the economy as well as Indonesia’s place in the global economy.

Keywords:
BOOK; Indonesia; government; economy; commodity; value-added tax; trade exposure; streamlining product market; commodity exporter; foreign currency; Exports; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Infrastructure; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Africa; output dynamics
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights the Thai economy’s continued recovery in 2016. GDP growth reached 3.2 percent, driven mainly by exports of services and public investment. Amid subdued import growth and soaring tourism, the external current account strengthened further to 11.4 percent of GDP. Average headline inflation was 0.2 percent, below the tolerance band for the second year in a row, reflecting low energy prices and persistently weak core inflation. The recovery is expected to advance at a moderate pace in the near to medium term. Public investment should remain a key driver, rising over the next few years in line with the government’s infrastructure plans and crowding in private investment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline inflation; core inflation; staff appraisal; staff's projection; average headline inflation; government efficiency; U.S. dollar; Inflation; Commercial banks; Inflation targeting; Financial sector stability; Global