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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note focuses on banking system spillovers of Malaysia. The note examines the presence of foreign banks and the potential for problems in other jurisdictions to spillover to Malaysia and the overseas operations of Malaysian banks, which make their performance and solvency more exposed to economic and political developments abroad. A key facet of the current crisis is serious problems in advanced economy banks, suggesting a role for spillovers from their claims on Malaysia. Notwithstanding the Asian Financial Crisis, foreign claims of BIS-reporting banks on Malaysia have generally been on an increasing trend since the early 1990s.
Serkan Arslanalp
and
Takahiro Tsuda
This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012). The estimates are constructed on a quarterly basis from 2004 to mid-2013 and are available along with the paper in an online dataset. We estimate that about half a trillion dollars of foreign flows went into emerging market government debt during 2010–12, mostly coming from foreign asset managers. Foreign central bank holdings have risen as well, but remain concentrated in a few countries: Brazil, China, Indonesia, Poland, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Africa. We also find that foreign investor flows to emerging markets were less differentiated during 2010–12 against the background of near-zero interest rates in advanced economies. The paper extends some of the indicators proposed in our earlier paper to show how the investor base data can be used to assess countries’ sensitivity to external funding shocks and to track foreign investors’ exposures to different markets within a global benchmark portfolio.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Abstract

The Global Financial Stability Report (GSFR), published twice a year by the IMF, provides timely analysis of developments in mature and emerging market countries and seeks to identify potential fault lines in the global financial system that could lead to crisis. The GFSR aims to deepen its readers’ understanding of global capital flows, which play a critical role as an engine of world economic growth. Along with the IMF’s semiannual World Economic Outlook, the GFSR is a key vehicle for the IMF’s multilateral surveillance. The Global Financial Stability Report was created to provide a more frequent assessment of global financial markets and to address emerging market financing in a global context. The report focuses on current conditions in global financial markets, highlighting issues of financial imbalances, and of a structural nature, that could pose risks to financial market stability and sustained market access by emerging market borrowers. The GFSR focuses on relevant contemporary issues, not attempting to be a comprehensive survey of all potential risks. It also draws out the financial ramifications of economic imbalances highlighted by the IMF’s World Economic Outlook. It regularly contains, as a special feature, articles on structural or systemic issues relevant to international financial stability.

Mr. Arto Kovanen
,
Mr. Olivier M Frecaut
,
Ms. Barbara E Baldwin
, and
Mr. Charles Enoch
This study looks at the first two years of the banking crisis that erupted in Indonesia in late 1997. It finds that the banking sector was weak at the outset, and that governance problems intensified the crisis and seriously delayed its resolution. Although a strategy was put in place over the initial months, protracted delays in implementation led to an explosion in the costs of resolution. By end-1999, the critical elements to reconstruct the banking system were in place, and the political transition seemed completed; but, in a continuing unsettled environment, the new authorities still faced daunting challenges. This study looks at the first two years of the banking crisis that erupted in Indonesia in late 1997. It finds that the banking sector was weak at the outset, and that governance problems intensified the crisis and seriously delayed its resolution. Although a strategy was put in place over the initial months, protracted delays in implementation led to an explosion in the costs of resolution. By end-1999, the critical elements to reconstruct the banking system were in place, and the political transition seemed completed; but, in a continuing unsettled environment, the new authorities still faced daunting challenges. This study looks at the first two years of the banking crisis that erupted in Indonesia in late 1997. It finds that the banking sector was weak at the outset, and that governance problems intensified the crisis and seriously delayed its resolution. Although a strategy was put in place over the initial months, protracted delays in implementation led to an explosion in the costs of resolution. By end-1999, the critical elements to reconstruct the banking system were in place, and the political transition seemed completed; but, in a continuing unsettled environment, the new authorities still faced daunting challenges.
International Monetary Fund
To test the role of bank lending in transmitting currency crisis we examine a panel of BIS data on bank flows to 30 emerging markets disaggregated by 11 banking centers. We find that bank exposures to a crisis country help predict bank flows in third countries after the Mexican and Asian crisis, but not after the Russian crisis. In the latter, there is evidence of a generalized outflow from emerging markets, rather than outflows linked to prior exposure to Russia.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the factors behind the relatively strong performance of the Philippines in recent years (1990s) as well as the remaining reform agenda. The paper highlights that the Philippines has received considerable attention in recent years as it “emerged” in the early 1990s from a long period of slow growth and economic imbalances, and then managed to escape the “Asian crisis” relatively unscathed. The paper examines the public finances for the Philippines. It also analyzes the monetary sector, external sector, and the banking sector reforms.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the reforms in the energy sector in Bangladesh. It assesses the fiscal position of Bangladesh and examines its fiscal sustainability using a simple measure based on the debt dynamics. It concludes that although Bangladesh has so far maintained its sustainability mainly owing to the large portion of foreign financing with highly concessional interest rates, the potential fiscal burdens related to the structural problems in the banking sector and state-owned enterprises might threaten sustainability.
Mr. Luca Errico
and
Mr. Alberto Musalem Borrero
The paper takes a closer look at offshore banking—a pervasive practice that has played a role in recent crises. Offshore banking is an increasingly attractive alternative to the sometimes heavily regulated financial markets of emerging economies. From a microeconomic vantage point, offshore banks seem to exploit the risk-return tradeoff by being more profitable than onshore banks, and in many instances also more leveraged. Risks stemming from offshore activities may be easily transmitted onshore with systemic consequences. Current prudential and supervisory frameworks are broadly adequate for risk management if effectively and universally implemented.
Mr. John M Montgomery
The structure of the financial system in Indonesia is examined through the analytical lens of the system’s contribution to the growth, stability, and efficiency of the Indonesian economy. The focus is on the banking system and securities markets, which are the primary mechanisms for mobilizing savings and allocating investment funds. Five key policy issues are highlighted: (1) the level of bank capitalization; (2) the supervision and regulation of banks; (3) the structure of banking markets; (4) the deepening of securities markets; and (5) the supervision and regulation of securities markets.