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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Myanmar: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report paper highlights that the work on verifying reasonable size of coverage adjustments for Myanmar’s imports was addressed during the mission, using bilateral trade data from Thailand and China. The mission illustrated how granular data can be used to help determine proper adjustments to improve the coverage of the International merchandise trade statistics, using Thailand’s data on exports to Myanmar cross-classified by border checkpoint and 2-digit HS code. The data indicated potential under-coverage of Myanmar imports for a few checkpoints sharing land border with Thailand. Although the actual travel expenditure per person per day for certain years is likely to be lower than the time series published by the Ministry of Hotels and Tourism given continuous depreciation of Kyat over the past five years, this factor should unlikely outweigh the effect of growing numbers of inbound tourists. Balance-of-payments compilation file used by the Central Bank of Myanmar Balance of Payments Section has now been modified to accommodate suggested coverage adjustments for imports, and the new estimation model for freight and insurance on imports proposed during March 2019 mission.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBM Balance of Payments Section; Myanmar; BPS compiler; mirror data; verification exercise; deputy governor; data request; Imports; External sector statistics; Civil society organizations; Credit
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies
Geraldine Dany-Knedlik
and
Juan Angel Garcia
This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring of inflation expectations, consistent with the improvements in monetary policy frameworks in the region. In contrast, the quantitative impact of cyclical fluctuations and import prices has gradually diminished over time.
Keywords:
WP; inflation expectation; price inflation; inflation dynamics; trend inflation estimate; Phillips curve; monetary policy; inflation expectations; ASEAN countries; import inflation; Inflation; Oil prices; Inflation targeting; Monetary policy frameworks; Import prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics
Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister
,
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan
, and
Theodore Pierre Bikoi
This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports could be underreported by 8 to 50 percent, while imports could be underreported by 30 to 70 percent, and the trade deficit could be 20 percent to 280 percent higher. Underreporting is concentrated in trade with major partners, including Thailand (17 percent of total trade), China (10 percent of total trade) and Vietnam (3 percent of total trade). On the export side, underreporting is concentrated in wood and wood products, while for imports it is concentrated in a much wider variety of products, including food, fuel, vehicles, machinery, chemical products, plastics and rubber, and construction materials. Possible sources and implications of these discrepancies are discussed.
Keywords:
WP; product; Bank of Lao PDR; import; Lao PDR Ministry of Industry and Commerce; External trade statictics; bilateral assymetries; trade partner data; imports and exports; customs data; MOIC data; wood product export restriction; exports ratio; Lao P.D.R reserve adequacy; Imports; Exports; Trade balance; Trade deficits; Metals; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Fragility of Global Trade: The Impact of Localized Supply Shocks Using Network Analysis
Ms. Yevgeniya Korniyenko
,
Magali Pinat
, and
Brian Dew
Anecdotal evidence suggests the existence of specific choke points in the global trade network revealed especially after natural disasters (e.g. hard drive components and Thailand flooding, Japanese auto components post-Fukushima, etc.). Using a highly disaggregated international trade database we assess the spillover effects of supply shocks from the import of specific goods. Our goal is to identify inherent vulnerabilities arising from the composition of a country’s import basket and to propose effective mitigation policies. First, using network analysis tools we develop a methodology for evaluating and ranking the supply fragility of individual traded goods. Next, we create a country-level measure to determine each country’s supply shock vulnerability based on the composition of their individual import baskets. This measure evaluates the potential negative supply shock spillovers from the import of each good.
Keywords:
WP; risky product; product network; products description; product fragility; product exporter; international trade; supply shocks; spillovers; network analysis; offragile products; network products; product vulnerability; standard deviation; Imports; Exports; Natural disasters; Export performance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies
Allan Dizioli
,
Mr. Jaime Guajardo
,
Mr. Vladimir Klyuev
,
Rui Mano
, and
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Keywords:
WP; commodity price; growth slowdown; goods export; imports fall; policy shock; China’s slowdown and rebalancing; international business cycle; spillovers; Global VAR; Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM); ASEAN-5; service imports; commodity exporter; China's slowdown; trading partners; net commodity importer; Exports; Commodity prices; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies
Mr. Reinout De Bock
Trade flows data show that the composition and cyclical properties of imports are similar in developed economies and emerging markets (EM) but this is not the case for exports. Unlike developed economies, (i) EM export few or only a selective set of capital goods and (ii) capital good and overall exports tend to be acyclical. The lack of procyclicality in exports drives the strong countercyclicality of EM trade balances observed in previous studies. A quantitative exercise demonstrates how the standard small open economy business cycle model can be improved for EM by incorporating these features.
Keywords:
WP
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Tradeon Wages: What If Countries Are Not Small?
Mr. Ichiro Tokutsu
and
Mika Saito
This paper explores the effect of trade on the relative wage of less-skilled labor through its effect on world prices, which are typically exogenously given under the small open economy assumption. Using the 1995 international input-output data for APEC member countries, we numerically simulate a general equilibrium model to study the effects of abolishing existing tariffs under the assumption that each member country is large enough to affect the prices of goods and services produced in the region. We find that the responsiveness of prices plays an important role in easing a possible adverse effect of trade on relative wages.
Keywords:
WP; excess demand; International Trade; Wages; price movement; unit import cost; transportation cost; vector of goods; input price; price equation; fall result; price change; Tariffs; Imports; Skilled labor; Wage gap
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This report provides the IMF's projections and estimates on Thailand's expenditure on gross domestic product at current prices; balance of payments during 1995–2000; gross domestic product by industrial origin at current and constant prices during 1995–99; investment and savings at constant prices; gross domestic product at 1988 prices; selected energy prices; mining and agricultural productions during 1995–2001; central government fiscal accounts and revenue and grants; central government expenditure by economic classification,1995/96–1999/2000; summary of the central and local government tax system; financial and monetary surveys during 1996–2001, and so on.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; U.S. dollar; private sector; withholding tax; import duty; long-term debt; income tax; capital goods; gross income; consumer goods; Agricultural commodities; Transportation; Imports; Income; Oil; Mekong; Nonmonetary capital; International Monetary Fund Washington; d.c; publication policy; net medium; Commercial banks; Public sector
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Statistical Appendix report on Thailand highlights the economic indicators for the period 1994–99. The report discusses gross domestic product; investment and savings; agricultural production; manufacturing production; construction and property market; population, labor force, and employment by major economic sectors; average earnings by manufacturing categories; consumer and wholesale prices; government fiscal and expenditure accounts; summary of local government operations; summary of tax system; assets and liabilities of commercial banks; stock market indicators; balance of payments; export performance; and so on.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; state enterprise; U.S. dollar; long-term debt; income tax; capital goods; consumer goods; Agricultural commodities; Income; Imports; Commercial banks; Transportation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; state enterprise; net; U.S. dollar; long-term debt; Nonmonetary capital; structural adjustment; capital goods; consumer goods; Agricultural commodities; Public enterprises; Exports; Income; Imports