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International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix paper presents cross-country regression results that identify investment in physical capital and improvements in institutional quality as having the largest pay-off in terms of increased growth. The paper employs three approaches to forecast inflation in Pakistan. A leading indicator model outperforms a univariate autoregressive moving average model as well as a vector autoregressive model in terms of forecast quality. The paper presents three case studies of Pakistani public sector enterprises that have recently witnessed strong improvements in their financial performance.
Mr. Stephen Tokarick
This paper examines the question: Who bears the larger portion of the excess burden of a tariff-the country that imposes it, or a country that it trades with? For a country that can influence its terms of trade, there are two ways of approaching this question. This paper shows that under certain assumptions, the extra burden from a marginal change in the homecountry tariff is shared equally between the home and foreign country at a tariff rate equal to twice the optimal tariff for the home country. Also, the cumulative welfare effect of a tariff in the home country, relative to free trade, turns out to be equalized across countries when the home tariff equals four times its optimal tariff. The paper provides an application of these results and points policymakers to the types of data that are relevant if they want to negotiate over "burden sharing."
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper presents an analysis of trends in growth and investment in India in the 1990s, with a focus on the slowdown in growth during the second half of the 1990s. The paper discusses the fiscal situation, outlining the key reasons for the deterioration in fiscal balances, how the fiscal situation compares with other developing countries, and the key lessons from countries that managed successful fiscal consolidation. The paper also contains an assessment of India’s opening to global trade and factors that may be affecting India’s export performance.
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The speeches made by officials attending the IMF–World Bank Annual Meetings are published in this volume, along with the press communiqués issued by the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Development Committee at the conclusion of the meetings.

Mr. Ungku Abdul Aziz

Abstract

This collection of papers delivered at a seminar, moderated by Ungku A. Aziz, in Kuala Lumpur addresses issues of economic and structural adjustment and trade and exchange rate policies in Southeast Asia.

International Monetary Fund
The study reveals agricultural import restrictions are widely applied in Asia, but that Japan and Korea impose lower average tariffs and nontariff barriers with less frequency than most Asian countries. It also finds several low and middle-income countries enforce relatively low protection for basic foodstuffs, while high-income countries tend to impose relatively high protection for foods. Finally, commodity patterns of trade and protection suggest scope exists for successful reciprocal negotiations to liberalize agricultural trade mainly between low and middle-income Asian countries. Though similar gains might be achieved by unilateral liberalization, reciprocal negotiations are more feasible politically and, on a most-favored-nation basis, would imply greater trade expansion.