Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 20 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Balance of trade x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Thailand’s cyclical recovery is underway, though it has yet to become broad-based. Growth is projected to accelerate moderately, reaching 2.7 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025, supported by the rebound of tourism-related activities and fiscal stimulus. The slow recovery, weaker than in ASEAN peers, is rooted in Thailand’s longstanding structural weaknesses and emerging headwinds that also contribute to a muted inflation trajectory. Significant uncertainty in the external environment and downside risks cloud the outlook.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflationtargeting monetary policy framework; supply and use tables; monetary policy analysis; Thai baht; Trade balance; Inflation; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Thailand’s economy is recovering from an unprecedented crisis emanating from multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ample policy space has allowed a swift and bold policy response and vaccine rollout has accelerated. However, the recovery is weak and uneven across sectors, with inflation rapidly rising driven by energy prices. Downside risks dominate the outlook, sharpening policy tradeoffs. The pandemic has also brought to the fore the urgency for Thailand to identify new growth drivers to reverse the pre-pandemic trend of declining productivity growth and meet the challenges of the post-pandemic world.
Keywords:
net portfolio inflow; inflation expectation; Medium-term government bond bond yield; inflation dynamics; monetary policy committee meeting; Inflation; Trade balance; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Research Perspectives
IMF Research Perspective: Fall 21/Winter 22
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This issue of the IMF Research Perspective looks at the inter-connectedness of the world economic system and how diverse shocks can affect global supply chains. The articles in this issue track the way COVID-19 triggered disruptions in the supply chain and explains why trade networks are so difficult to disentangle. However, the pandemic is not the only event affecting global supply chains; cross-border spillovers of technology wars and natural disasters are other factors to consider. The overarching message from these articles is clear: there is a need for international cooperation to deal with the consequences of these shocks—whether it is ending the COVID-19 pandemic or mitigating climate change.
Keywords:
IMF research perspective; inflation pressure; climate disaster; impact of the pandemic; supply chain disruption; mitigation policy; Trade balance; Natural disasters; Climate change; Imports; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.
Keywords:
vaccination plan; vaccine brand; pace of vaccination; Bank of Thailand 's Monetary Policy Committee; government's reopening plan; U.S. dollar; COVID-19; Trade balance; Tourism; Loans; Fiscal stimulus; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance-Basel Core Principles For Effective Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Detailed Assessment of Observance on the Basel Core Principles (BCP) for effective banking supervision on Thailand highlights that there have been significant enhancements to the legal framework and the supervisory process since the last BCP review, resulting in high compliance. The commercial banking sector appears to be sound and stable with a diversified lending profile and a steady source of funding. The involvement of other ministerial authorities in Specialized Financial Institutions supervision may affect standard-setting processes and the mindset of key decision makers for commercial banks when trying to level regulatory standards. The supervisory framework and practices provide the foundation for the continued development of risk-based supervision. Notifications and examination manuals increasingly focus on analysis of qualitative factors such as governance, risk management and risk appetite statements to determine the bank’s composite rating. The report recommends that efficiency of enforcement actions would be increased by aligning Financial Institutions Business Act requirements and Bank of Thailand internal practices.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BOT supervisor; risk management; BOT notification No. FPG; senior management; risk profile; credit risk; parent company; business strategy; Trade balance; Market risk; Commercial banks; Stress testing; Operational risk; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Financial System Stability Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on Thailand highlights that assets of the insurance and mutual fund sectors have doubled as a share of gross domestic product over the last decade, and capital markets are largely on par with regional peers. The report discusses significant slowdown in China and advanced economies, a sharp rise in risk premia, and entrenched low inflation would adversely impact the financial system. Stress tests results suggest that the banking sector is resilient to severe shocks and that systemic and contagion risks stemming from interlinkages are limited. Financial system oversight is generally strong, but the operational independence of supervisory agencies can be strengthened further. The operational independence of supervisory agencies can be strengthened further by reducing the involvement of the Ministry of Finance in prudential issues and ensuring that each agency has full control over decisions that lie within its areas of responsibility.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial system; U.S. dollar; bank; bank resolvability assessment; cash flow; hurdle rate; recovery plan; bank distress; resolution planning; headline inflation; asset quality; Trade balance; Commercial banks; Financial sector stability; Liquidity stress testing; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses Thailand’s robust policy framework and ample buffers continue to underpin its resilience to external headwinds. The authorities have taken measures to strengthen medium-term fiscal management and financial stability. With respect to the outlook, growth is projected to slow down to about 3 percent in 2019–20 reflecting external and domestic headwinds. On the external side, the projected slowdown in global demand and uncertainty about trade tensions are expected to weigh on exports throughout 2019. Policies should aim at boosting growth, while promoting domestic and external rebalancing and making growth more inclusive. The IMF staff recommends a front-loaded fiscal impulse in FY 2020. Thailand should use available fiscal space judiciously to spur domestic demand and support potential output. Implementation of macro-critical public infrastructure projects would also crowd in private investment. The report also highlights that structural reforms aimed at improving the implementation of public investment, strengthen social safety nets, and raise productivity in an increasingly digital economy, would boost growth and enhance its inclusiveness.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; U.S. dollar; government; headline inflation; housing loan demand; National Anti-Corruption Strategy; training scheme; Thai baht; condo price; Financial sector stability; Trade balance; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
LAO P.D.R.: Assessing the Quality of Trade Statistics
Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister
,
Mr. Manuk Ghazanchyan
, and
Theodore Pierre Bikoi
This paper assesses external trade statistics in Lao PDR by looking at mirror statistics, and with reference to international experience in compilation and dissemination of external trade data. We find that exports could be underreported by 8 to 50 percent, while imports could be underreported by 30 to 70 percent, and the trade deficit could be 20 percent to 280 percent higher. Underreporting is concentrated in trade with major partners, including Thailand (17 percent of total trade), China (10 percent of total trade) and Vietnam (3 percent of total trade). On the export side, underreporting is concentrated in wood and wood products, while for imports it is concentrated in a much wider variety of products, including food, fuel, vehicles, machinery, chemical products, plastics and rubber, and construction materials. Possible sources and implications of these discrepancies are discussed.
Keywords:
WP; product; Bank of Lao PDR; import; Lao PDR Ministry of Industry and Commerce; External trade statictics; bilateral assymetries; trade partner data; imports and exports; customs data; MOIC data; wood product export restriction; exports ratio; Lao P.D.R reserve adequacy; Imports; Exports; Trade balance; Trade deficits; Metals; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
Thailand is recovering from a challenging year marked by natural disasters of historic magnitude. This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that positive signs of a recovery are already under way with sharp improvements seen in high frequency indicators since December 2011. Executive Directors have commended the Thai authorities for their policy response to last year’s floods, which propelled the strong recovery under way. Directors have also supported the authorities’ ambitious reform agenda aimed at promoting more inclusive growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy; government; core inflation; redistribution policy; rice price guarantee scheme; flood-prevention effort; flood prevention; Thai baht; IMF staff estimate; slowing demand; Agricultural prices; Trade balance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies
Mr. Reinout De Bock
Trade flows data show that the composition and cyclical properties of imports are similar in developed economies and emerging markets (EM) but this is not the case for exports. Unlike developed economies, (i) EM export few or only a selective set of capital goods and (ii) capital good and overall exports tend to be acyclical. The lack of procyclicality in exports drives the strong countercyclicality of EM trade balances observed in previous studies. A quantitative exercise demonstrates how the standard small open economy business cycle model can be improved for EM by incorporating these features.
Keywords:
WP