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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Thailand’s economy is recovering from an unprecedented crisis emanating from multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ample policy space has allowed a swift and bold policy response and vaccine rollout has accelerated. However, the recovery is weak and uneven across sectors, with inflation rapidly rising driven by energy prices. Downside risks dominate the outlook, sharpening policy tradeoffs. The pandemic has also brought to the fore the urgency for Thailand to identify new growth drivers to reverse the pre-pandemic trend of declining productivity growth and meet the challenges of the post-pandemic world.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This issue of the IMF Research Perspective looks at the inter-connectedness of the world economic system and how diverse shocks can affect global supply chains. The articles in this issue track the way COVID-19 triggered disruptions in the supply chain and explains why trade networks are so difficult to disentangle. However, the pandemic is not the only event affecting global supply chains; cross-border spillovers of technology wars and natural disasters are other factors to consider. The overarching message from these articles is clear: there is a need for international cooperation to deal with the consequences of these shocks—whether it is ending the COVID-19 pandemic or mitigating climate change.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance (TA) report on government finance statistics (GFS) covers the remote TA to the Ministry of Finance (MOF) during September 21–October 2 and December 14–18, 2020 and March 9–13 and April 19–23, 2021 (which was extended to May 2021). These peripatetic activities were conducted remotely due to the travel restrictions resulting from the COVID-19 situation. This report documents the main achievements from these activities. These activities were part of the GFS and Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) project funded by the Government of Japan (JSA3) and implemented by the IMF Statistics Department (STA) and the IMF Capacity Development Office in Thailand (CDOT).
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.
Ms. Manuela Goretti
,
Mr. Lamin Y Leigh
,
Aleksandra Babii
,
Mr. Serhan Cevik
,
Stella Kaendera
,
Mr. Dirk V Muir
,
Sanaa Nadeem
, and
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Ms. Emilia M Jurzyk
,
Medha Madhu Nair
,
Nathalie Pouokam
,
Tahsin Saadi Sedik
, and
Mrs. Irina Yakadina
The COVID-19 pandemic risks exacerbating inequality in Asia. High frequency labor surveys show that the pandemic is having particularly adverse effects on younger workers, women and people that are more vulnerable. Pandemics have been shown to increase inequalities. As a result, income inequality, which was already high and rising in Asia before the pandemic, is likely to rise further over the medium term, unless policies succeed in breaking this historical pattern. Many Asian governments have implemented significant fiscal policy measures to mitigate the pandemic’s effect on the most vulnerable, with the impact depending on the initial coverage of safety nets, fiscal space, and degree of informality and digitalization. The paper includes model-based analysis which shows that policies targeted to where needs are greatest are effective in mitigating adverse distributional consequences and underpinning overall economic activity and virus containment.
International Monetary Fund
The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted an unprecedented shock on the global economy and created an enormous demand for Fund resources. To accelerate processing and approval of members’ requests in such circumstances, the paper proposes measures to expedite Board consideration and approval of requests for purchases and/or disbursements under the Rapid Financing Instrument and/or the Rapid Credit Facility, respectively, completion of reviews and requests for changes in access in existing arrangements, and requests for assistance under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT), by shortening the circulation period for Board documents. The paper also proposes extending the use of the shortened circulation period to selected Article IV consultations necessary for use of Fund resources during a global pandemic. Management will also streamline internal procedures to accelerate program processing and reduce the burden on the Fund’s administrative capacity, and will seek the support of creditors to expedite the processing of financial transactions under COVID-19 emergency financing.