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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Socio-Economic Spillovers from Special Economic Zones: Evidence from Cambodia
Mariya Brussevich
This study examines the socio-economic impact of special economic zones (SEZs) in Cambodia---a prominent place-based policy established in 2005. The paper employs a database on existing and future SEZs in Cambodia with matched household surveys at the district level and documents stylized facts on SEZs in a low-income country setting. To identify causal effects of the SEZ program, the paper (i) constructs an alternative control group including future SEZ program participants and districts adjacent to SEZ hosts; and (ii) employs a propensity score weighting technique. The study finds that entry of SEZs disproportionately benefits female workers and leads to a decline of income inequality at a district level. However, the findings also suggest that land values in SEZ districts tend to rise while wage levels remain largely unchanged relative to other districts. In addition, the paper tests for socio-economic spillovers to surrounding areas and for agglomeration effects associated with clusters of multiple SEZs.
Keywords:
WP; SEZ program; SEZ entry; SEZ firm; program participation; SEZ district; SEZ location; Employment; Wages; Income; Income inequality; Labor markets; Special Economic Zones; Place-Based Policy; Low-Income Country; Foreign Direct Investment; SEZ effect; SEZ developer; SEZ trend; tagged SEZ database; SEZ program participation; SEZ intensity; propensity score weighting technique; Policy implication; impact of special economic zones; Women
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper discusses reasons behind rise of inflation in Philippines. The paper focuses on inflation developments and the monetary policy framework in the Philippines. It employs a global latent factor model to decompose inflation into common drivers and idiosyncratic factors for a sample of 62 countries. Based on these results, it then models inflation in different regions and presents the single country, single equation model and conducts out of sample forecasts to determine consistency with the medium-term inflation target. The common factors modeling of inflation suggests that inflation in the Philippines depends on world commodity price developments and movements in the US dollar effective exchange rate. However, theory suggests that domestic cyclical conditions also matter. We assess the importance of these variables by estimating a Phillips curve augmented by world commodity prices and the nominal exchange rate for 2000–2013. Using the Akaike-Schwartz criterion, the optimal lag length is found to be four. Given the potential for serial correlation and heteroskedasticity, we use the Newey-West standard errors to find the consistent estimates.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Philippines; bank; enterprise; thrift bank; bank penetration; enterprise survey; employment growth; microfinance loan; funding cost; Inflation; Employment; Unemployment; Labor force; Credit; Global; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
Rahul Anand
,
Mr. Kevin C Cheng
,
Sidra Rehman
, and
Ms. Longmei Zhang
Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.
Keywords:
WP; ASEAN economy; China; economy; trend growth; India; potential growth; total factor productivity; emerging Asia; dependency ratio; inflation picture; non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment; production function; Capital accumulation; Inflation; Aging; Labor force participation; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Tradeon Wages: What If Countries Are Not Small?
Mr. Ichiro Tokutsu
and
Mika Saito
This paper explores the effect of trade on the relative wage of less-skilled labor through its effect on world prices, which are typically exogenously given under the small open economy assumption. Using the 1995 international input-output data for APEC member countries, we numerically simulate a general equilibrium model to study the effects of abolishing existing tariffs under the assumption that each member country is large enough to affect the prices of goods and services produced in the region. We find that the responsiveness of prices plays an important role in easing a possible adverse effect of trade on relative wages.
Keywords:
WP; excess demand; International Trade; Wages; price movement; unit import cost; transportation cost; vector of goods; input price; price equation; fall result; price change; Tariffs; Imports; Skilled labor; Wage gap
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Indonesia reports that following the major cleanup of the banking sector after the crisis, banks’ performance has improved as net interest margins and profitability have increased. Public and external debt ratios have declined and international reserves have risen, reducing domestic and external vulnerabilities. Indonesia stands out as having experienced a slower recovery in investment and exports than other countries hit by the Asian crisis. Recognizing the challenge, the government has adopted a sound medium-term strategy focused on boosting economic growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Indonesia; export; growth performance; multiplicative Indonesia dummy; growth prospect; growth record; growth experience; Oil; Bank credit; Credit; Employment; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; South Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 1
Mr. Robert P Flood
This paper presents details of a symposium on forecasting performance I organized under the auspices of the IMF Staff Papers. The assumption that the forecaster's goal is to do as well as possible in predicting the actual outcome is sometimes questionable. ln the context of private sector forecasts, this is because the incentives for forecasters may induce them to herd rather than to reveal their true forecasts. Public sector forecasts may also be distorted, although for different reasons. Forecasts associated with IMF programs, for example, are often the result of negotiations between the IMF staff and the country authorities and are perhaps more accurately viewed as goals, or targets, rather than pure forecasts. The standard theory of time series forecasting involves a variety of components including the choice of an information set, the choice of a cost function, and the evaluation of forecasts in terms of the average costs of the forecast errors. It is generally acknowledged that by including more relevant information in the information set, one should be able to produce better forecasts.
Keywords:
SP; standard deviation; IMF projection; program projection; private sector forecast; consumption tax; group mean; panel money demand estimation; Real exchange rates; Purchasing power parity; Consumption taxes; Labor taxes; Exchange rates; East Asia; Eastern Europe; Europe; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers: Volume 44 No. 1
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper argues that an important group of labor market policies are complementary in the sense that the effect of each policy is greater when implemented in conjunction with the other policies than in isolation. This may explain why the diverse, piecemeal labor market reforms in many European countries in recent years have had so little success in reducing unemployment. What is required instead is deeper labor market reforms across a broader range of complementary policies and institutions. To be politically feasible, these reforms must be combined with measures to address distributional issues.
Keywords:
SP; paper number; dependent variables in equation; CVD petition; Visa credit cards; priority mail delivery; Labor markets; Total factor productivity; Production growth; Productivity; Unemployment rate; Europe; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Baltics; North America
Cover Thailand
Thailand
The Road to Sustained Growth
Mr. Erik Offerdal
,
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
,
Mr. Louis Dicks-Mireaux
,
Ms. Jianping Zhou
,
Mr. Mauro Mecagni
, and
Mr. Balázs Horváth

Abstract

Since the mid-1960s, Thailand's growth performance has been exceptional. Although hard hit by the external shocks fo the late 1970s and the early 1980s that proved severely destabilizing to many developing countries, Thailand showed remarkable reslience: price stability was quickly restored, and the Thai economy emerged from this period with strong recovery in growth and investment, in an environment of overall macroeconomic stability. This study examines the evolution of investment and growth and Thailand's macroeconomic and structural policies, with a view to understanding the main factors that have led to this impressive economic performance.

Keywords:
OP; growth performance; IMF staff estimate; credit growth; adjustment experience; policy choice; export boom; Private investment; Real wages; Labor markets; Wages; East Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; stabilization policy mix; Public enterprises
Cover Reinvigorating Growth in Developing Countries
Reinvigorating Growth in Developing Countries
Lessons from Adjustment Policies in Eight Economies
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
,
Mr. Erik Offerdal
,
Mr. Louis Dicks-Mireaux
,
Mr. Mauro Mecagni
,
Ms. Jianping Zhou
,
Mr. Balázs Horváth
,
Mr. David John Goldsbrough
, and
Ms. Sharmini Coorey

Abstract

This study examines the links between adjustment policies and growth in a small group of developing countries- Bangladesh, Chile, Ghana, India, Mexico, Morocco, Senegal, and Thailand - during 1970 -93. It provides an overview of the adjustment and growth experience, examines in depth several policy issues of particular interest, and distills the principal policy lessons for the design of adjustment policies.

Keywords:
OP; investment; country; rate; policy; wage; growth differentials vis-a-vis; adjustment policy; terms of trade movement; saving decline; investment decline; real wage flexibility; Private investment; Labor markets; Structural reforms; Real wages; Tariffs; Global; Middle East