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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
What Undermines Aid’s Impact on Growth?
Mr. Arvind Subramanian
and
Raghuram Rajan
We examine one of the most important and intriguing puzzles in economics: why it is so hard to find a robust effect of aid on the long-term growth of poor countries, even those with good policies. We look for a possible offset to the beneficial effects of aid, using a methodology that exploits both cross-country and within-country variation. We find that aid inflows have systematic adverse effects on a country's competitiveness, as reflected in a decline in the share of labor intensive and tradable industries in the manufacturing sector. We find evidence suggesting that these effects stem from the real exchange rate overvaluation caused by aid inflows. By contrast, private-to-private flows like remittances do not seem to create these adverse effects. We offer an explanation why and conclude with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.
Keywords:
WP; country j; aid inflow; recipient country; country treatment effect
Cover IMF Working Papers
When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion
International Monetary Fund
One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the effect of past gains and losses on investors' risk aversion. We first present a simple model on how heterogeneous changes in investors' risk aversion affect portfolio decisions and stock prices. Second, we empirically show that, when funds' returns are below average, they adjust their holdings toward the average (or benchmark) portfolio. In other words, they tend to sell the assets of countries in which they were "overweight," increasing their exposure to countries in which they were "underweight." Based on this insight, we construct a matrix of financial interdependence reflecting the extent to which countries share overexposed funds. This index can improve predictions about which countries are likely to be affected by contagion from crisis centers.
Keywords:
WP; emerging market; mutual fund
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demutualization of Securities Exchanges: A Regulatory Perspective
Ms. Jennifer A. Elliott
Demutualization is a term used to describe the transition of a securities exchange from a mutual association of exchange members operating on a not-for-profit basis to a limited liability, for-profit company accountable to shareholders. Demutualization in its many forms has become a widespread phenomenon-one with increasing appeal in emerging market countries. Demutualization challenges the traditional approach to supervision of securities exchanges and raises issues regarding their role in the regulation and supervision of capital markets.
Keywords:
WP; market surveillance; conduct regulation; Nasdaq market; market conduct rule; market participant; securities regulation; stock exchanges; FIBV market principle; listed company; regulation function; regulator-exchange relation; monopoly exchange; exchanges business; exchange member; Stock markets; Competition; Securities; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Trade systems; Global; North America
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Drives Contagion: Trade Neighborhood, or Financial Links?
Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes
and
Mr. Leonardo Hernández
This paper presents evidence on the relative importance of alternative contagion channels during the Thai, Russian, and Brazilian crises. Results show that when crises are measured by changes in sovereign bond spreads, financial competition seems to explain almost all contagion episodes. However, when crises are measured by stock market returns, trade links and neighborhood effects appear to be relevant contagion channels during the Thai and Brazilian crises, while financial competition remains the only relevant channel in the case of the Russian crisis.
Keywords:
WP; financial market; trade competition; Contagion; Bond Spreads; Stock Market; Capital Flows; Crisis Transmission; A. sovereign bond; sovereign bond spread; bond indicator; trade link; fund manager; Competition; Stock markets; Yield curve; Currency markets; Sovereign bonds; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sources of Contagion: Finance or Trade?
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents evidence that spillovers through bank lending, as opposed to trade linkages and country characteristics, can help explain contagion. We construct a measure of competition for bank funds and find evidence in favor of a common lender effect in the Mexican, Thai, and Russian crises, after controlling for macroeconomic fundamentals. The results are quite robust to the definition of the finance indicator. In the case of the Asian crisis, results are not always robust to the inclusion of trade competition, reflecting the high correlation between competition for funds and trade.
Keywords:
WP; bank; crisis; lender; finance; lending; Contagion; currency crisis; financial spillovers; lender effect; bank lender; crisis country; lender channel; bank exposure; Competition; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Bank credit; Currency crises; Asia and Pacific; Global