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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that a cyclical recovery is under way in Thailand but has yet to become broad based. GDP growth is estimated at 3.9 percent in 2017, boosted by strong tourism services and manufacturing exports. Domestic demand remained sluggish amid structural challenges, and export gains failed to trickle down to household incomes and investments in other sectors. Headline inflation averaged 0.7 percent, below the target band for the third year in a row, reflecting low food prices and weak core inflation. The current account surplus remained large, at about 10.6 percent of GDP. Financial system stability continued to strengthen. The growth momentum is expected to continue in 2018 and 2019, supported by sustained export dynamism.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline inflation; inflation expectation; core inflation; economy; U.S. dollar; implementation capacity; inflation dynamics; Public investment spending; Financial sector stability; Inflation; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Inflation targeting; Global; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does Taxation Stifle Corporate Investment? Firm-Level Evidence from ASEAN Countries
Mr. Serhan Cevik
and
Fedor Miryugin
This paper conducts a firm-level analysis of the effect of taxation on corporate investment patterns in member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Using large-scale panel data on nonfinancial firms over the period 1990–2014, and controlling for macro-structural differences among countries, we find a significant degree of persistence in firms’ net fixed investments over time, which vary with firm characteristics, such as size, sales, profitability, leverage, and age. Our analysis brings up interesting empirical results, including nonlinear patterns of behavior in firms’ capital investment decisions acrosss ASEAN countries. Concerning the main variable of interest, we find that a moderate level of taxation does not hinder business investment, but this effect turns negative as higher tax burden raises the user cost of capital and distorts resource allocations.
Keywords:
WP; firm characteristic; investment behavior; firm level; nonfinancial firm; Corporate income tax; investment; leverage; firm performance; fixed investment; cost of capital; Capital spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Tax incidence; Private investment; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2009 Article IV Consultation Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund
This 2009 Article IV Consultation highlights that Thailand has been in an investment slump since 2006. Political turmoil has led to reduced business confidence and slow private investment growth. The main engine of growth for the economy has been the export sector. The authorities have focused on fiscal measures to stimulate the economy since the second half of 2008. Executive Directors have welcomed the authorities’ fiscal stimulus plans, and underscored that timely and efficient implementation of these plans is critical at the current juncture.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; credit growth; investor confidence; staff appraisal; monetary policy; remainder financing; accommodative fiscal policy; Fiscal stimulus; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Report on Observance of Standards and Codes: Fiscal Transparency Module
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the assessment on observance of standards and codes on fiscal transparency for Thailand. The assessment reveals that Thailand meets requirements of the fiscal transparency code in many respects and exceeds them in a few cases. The legal framework underlying public finance is broadly sound. The budget process is well specified. The legal framework for public debt management is clear, and reporting of public debt is transparent. The National Counter-Corruption Commission and the Office of Auditor General provide important independent checks on the integrity of public finances.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; private sector; annual budget; budget year; bank account; final accounts; fiscal policy; public finance; government practice; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Budget execution and treasury management; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP)
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on Thailand reviews public investment and investment recovery from financial crises. Thailand is a country with a moderate tax effort, which indicates that increases in public saving should be achieved through a mixture of tax and expenditure measures. Future budgets should accommodate the megaprojects without putting excessive pressures on public finances, inflation, and the external balance. Least present value of revenue (LPVR) auctions alleviate the demand risk inherent in the fixed-term contracts and thus eliminate a key driver for renegotiations and the provision of minimum income guarantees.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; slump; growth; reform; growth prospect; chapter III; investment slump crisis; further reform; core challenge; investment ratio; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public investment spending; Infrastructure; Asia and Pacific; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
What’s Driving Private Investment in Malaysia? Aggregate Trends and Firm-Level Evidence
Mr. Olaf Unteroberdoerster
and
Roberto Guimarães-Filho
Private sector investment has been a key source of growth in Malaysia over the last three decades, but after an unprecedented decline in the wake of the Asian crisis it has remained sluggish in recent years. Using aggregate and firm-level data, this paper aims to explain these trends and their implications for Malaysia's investment and growth outlook. Aggregate data point to sustained overinvestment in the years prior to the Asian crisis and the role of shifts in investor perceptions as important determinants of the recent decline in private investment. Meanwhile, firm-level data suggest that low profitability, along with financing constraints affecting smaller firms and those in the services sector, has also been important.
Keywords:
WP; investment; cash flow; profitability