Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 43 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies
Bada Han
,
Rashad Ahmed
,
Joshua Aizenman
, and
Yothin Jinjarak
We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs.
Keywords:
Sectoral Debt; Household Debt; Dollar Cycle; Emerging Markets; debt growth; household debt growth; debt level; appreciation shock; debt cycle; Business cycles; Consumption; Income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Who Pays the Bill? Distributional and Fiscal Consequences of Elevated Inflation in Thailand
Piyaporn Chote
,
Corinne C Delechat
,
Thanaphol Kongphalee
,
Vatsal Nahata
,
Mouhamadou Sy
,
Pym Manopimoke
, and
Tamon Yungvichit
This paper analyzes the distributional impacts of inflation in Thailand. For that aim, the paper uses rich micro-survey data on 46,000 Thai households to study the effect of the recent elevated inflation on poverty, its distributional effects on different income levels, and the fiscal cost to compensate households from real income losses. To study the multidimensional impact of inflation, the paper also studies how inflation differentially affects households through the consumption, income, and wealth channel. The analysis shows that under a baseline scenario, poverty in Thailand could increase by 1.3 percentage points—about 900,000 people—in the absence of government intervention. Targeted fiscal support to only compensate households that are below the national poverty line from rising inflation amount to 0.05 percent of GDP. However, fiscal support to compensate relatively rich households, defined as those above the median of the income distribution, amount to 1.4 percent of GDP. Moreover, due to high levels of debt, richer households benefit from inflation relative to poorer households. Finally, the paper also delves into policy responses undertaken by the Thai government and Asian and emerging economies to mitigate elevated inflation.
Keywords:
Inflation; poverty; inflation dynamics; income effect; fiscal cost.; elevated inflation; inflation component; rising prices; energy price; Income; Energy prices; Consumption; Food prices; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inequality and the Structure of Countries’ External Liabilities
Philipp Harms
,
Mathias Hoffmann
,
Miriam Kohl
, and
Tobias Krahnke
In this paper, we present empirical evidence that higher income inequality is associated with a greater equity share in countries' external liabilities, and we develop a theoretical model that can explain this observation: In a small open economy with traded and nontraded goods, entry barriers depress entrepreneurial activity in nontraded industries and raise income inequality. The small number of domestic nontraded-goods firms leaves room for foreign firms to operate on the domestic market, and it reduces external borrowing. The model suggests that barriers to entrepreneurial activity could be conducive to attract equity-type capital inows. Our empirical results lend some support to this conjecture.
Keywords:
Portfolio Equity; Foreign direct investment; External debt; External liabilities; Income Inequality; entry barrier; equity share; barriers to entrepreneurial activity; traded-goods firm; Income; Portfolio investment; Self-employment; South Asia; East Asia; Foreign corporations
Cover IMF Working Papers
COVID-19 and Inequality in Asia: Breaking the Vicious Cycle
Ms. Emilia M Jurzyk
,
Medha Madhu Nair
,
Nathalie Pouokam
,
Tahsin Saadi Sedik
, and
Mrs. Irina Yakadina
The COVID-19 pandemic risks exacerbating inequality in Asia. High frequency labor surveys show that the pandemic is having particularly adverse effects on younger workers, women and people that are more vulnerable. Pandemics have been shown to increase inequalities. As a result, income inequality, which was already high and rising in Asia before the pandemic, is likely to rise further over the medium term, unless policies succeed in breaking this historical pattern. Many Asian governments have implemented significant fiscal policy measures to mitigate the pandemic’s effect on the most vulnerable, with the impact depending on the initial coverage of safety nets, fiscal space, and degree of informality and digitalization. The paper includes model-based analysis which shows that policies targeted to where needs are greatest are effective in mitigating adverse distributional consequences and underpinning overall economic activity and virus containment.
Keywords:
COVID-19; Inequality; Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Macro Model; Fiscal Policy.; WP; IMF staff calculation; pandemic course; government-imposed lockdown; coronavirus disease pandemic; pandemic recession; Fiscal Policy; Income inequality; Consumption; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Socio-Economic Spillovers from Special Economic Zones: Evidence from Cambodia
Mariya Brussevich
This study examines the socio-economic impact of special economic zones (SEZs) in Cambodia---a prominent place-based policy established in 2005. The paper employs a database on existing and future SEZs in Cambodia with matched household surveys at the district level and documents stylized facts on SEZs in a low-income country setting. To identify causal effects of the SEZ program, the paper (i) constructs an alternative control group including future SEZ program participants and districts adjacent to SEZ hosts; and (ii) employs a propensity score weighting technique. The study finds that entry of SEZs disproportionately benefits female workers and leads to a decline of income inequality at a district level. However, the findings also suggest that land values in SEZ districts tend to rise while wage levels remain largely unchanged relative to other districts. In addition, the paper tests for socio-economic spillovers to surrounding areas and for agglomeration effects associated with clusters of multiple SEZs.
Keywords:
WP; SEZ program; SEZ entry; SEZ firm; program participation; SEZ district; SEZ location; Employment; Wages; Income; Income inequality; Labor markets; Special Economic Zones; Place-Based Policy; Low-Income Country; Foreign Direct Investment; SEZ effect; SEZ developer; SEZ trend; tagged SEZ database; SEZ program participation; SEZ intensity; propensity score weighting technique; Policy implication; impact of special economic zones; Women
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Inclusive Growth in ASEAN
Victoriia Alekhina
and
Mr. Giovanni Ganelli
Over the past decades ASEAN countries have experienced rapid economic growth accompanied by a dramatic fall in poverty rates, but income inequality has not retreated. This research aims at identifying factors which could contribute to more equally distributed growth in ASEAN. To measure inclusive growth, we use a variable integrating per capita income growth and an equity index. A cross-country panel analysis of the impact of macro-structural factors on inclusive growth and its two components suggests that fiscal redistribution, female labor force participation, productivity growth, FDI inflows, digitalization, and savings significantly drive inclusive growth. A scenario analysis based on our econometric results suggests that the implementation of fiscal redistribution and labor market-oriented structural reforms could help significantly accelerate inclusive growth in ASEAN.
Keywords:
WP; income; ASEAN country; per capita income; GDP; income share; income distribution; distribution data; economic growth; income inequality; Inclusive growth; Income inequality; Personal income; Income distribution; Fiscal redistribution; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Inequality; Equity; inflation rate; simulation result
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper assesses the relationship between demographic trends and housing prices in Japan. Among various issues in the context of regional disparities, the paper focus on regional differences in population dynamics to try and understand to what extent demographic trends have influenced housing market prices in Japan in the past twenty years. Large cities, notably the Greater Tokyo area, are experiencing net migration inflows, while other regions are experiencing net migration outflows. Due to the durability of housing compared to other forms of investment, the magnitude of house price declines associated with population losses is larger than that of house price increases associated with population gains. These model-based predictions are likely to underestimate the actual fall in house prices associated with future population losses, as expectations of lower housing prices in the future could trigger more population outflows and disposal of houses, especially in rural areas. The paper suggests policy measures to help close regional disparities and avoid potential over-investment by taking account of demographic trends for housing supply.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Japan; fertility rate; income; income balance; fertility rate relationship; IMF staff calculation; Japan's fertility rate; GDP shock; Personal income; Housing prices; Price stabilization; Tourism; Inflation; Global; Middle East; Europe; North America; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inequality, Gender Gaps and Economic Growth: Comparative Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa
Ms. Dalia S Hakura
,
Mr. Mumtaz Hussain
,
Ms. Monique Newiak
,
Mr. Vimal V Thakoor
, and
Mr. Fan Yang
A growing body of empirical evidence suggests that inequality—income or gender related—can impede economic growth. Using dynamic panel regressions and new time series data, this paper finds that both income and gender inequalities, including from legal gender-based restrictions, are jointly negatively associated with per capita GDP growth. Examining the relationship for countries at different stages of development, we find that this effect prevails mainly in lower income countries. In particular, per capita income growth in sub-Saharan Africa could be higher by as much as 0.9 percentage points on average if inequality was reduced to the levels observed in the fastgrowing emerging Asian countries. High levels of income inequality in sub-Saharan Africa appear partly driven by structural features. However, the paper’s findings show that policies that influence the opportunities of low-income households and women to participate in economic activities also matter and, therefore, if well-designed and targeted, could play a role in alleviating inequalities.
Keywords:
WP; inequality indicator; x LICs; income share; real GDP; Income inequality; gender inequality; economic growth; sub-Saharan Africa; net Gini coefficient; inequality measure; Personal income; Income distribution; Women; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sharing the Growth Dividend: Analysis of Inequality in Asia
Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra
,
Mr. Tidiane Kinda
,
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
,
Shi Piao
, and
Johanna Schauer
This paper focusses on income inequality in Asia, its drivers and policies to combat it. It finds that income inequality has risen in most of Asia, in contrast to many regions. While in the past, rapid growth in Asia has come with equitable distribution of the gains, more recently fast-growing Asian economies have been unable to replicate the “growth with equity” miracle. There is a growing consensus that high levels of inequality can hamper the pace and sustainability of growth. The paper argues that policies could have a substantial effect on reversing the trend of rising inequality. It is imperative to address inequality of opportunities, in particular to broaden access to education, health, and financial services. Also fiscal policy could combat rising inequality, including by expanding and broadening the coverage of social spending, improving tax progressivity, and boosting compliance. Further efforts to promote financial inclusion, while maintaining financial stability, can help.
Keywords:
WP; income share; consumption share; countries effort; Inequality; Gini coefficient; Asia; inequality measure; IMF staff calculation; entrepreneurial activity; reducing income gap; poverty rate; per capita income; benefits capital income; net Gini in India; net Gini in Asia; Income inequality; Income distribution; Personal income; Labor share; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Leap of the Tiger: How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap
Reda Cherif
and
Fuad Hasanov
Only a few European economies and Korea and Taiwan Province of China reached high-income status during 1970-2010. Malaysia’s real income per capita increased to 26 percent of the U.S. level in 2010 from 20 percent in 1970. Despite relatively strong growth and a substantial improvement in export sophistication, Malaysia’s total factor productivity lagged behind that of Korea and Taiwan Province of China. We argue that what characterizes their experience in contrast to Malaysia’s is the creation of technologies by domestic firms and a push to leapfrog to the technological frontier at an early stage of development.
Keywords:
WP; invested company share; electronics firm; firm Hyundai; spin-off firm; firm development; growth; middle-income trap; innovation; productivity; technology; global brand; firms in the electronics sector; local firm; auto parts firm; government intervention; Exports; Income; Manufacturing; Global; Asia and Pacific