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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 90 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Tackling Private Over-Indebtedness in Asia: Economic and Legal Aspects
Jose M Garrido
,
Miss Sanaa Nadeem
,
Nagwa Riad
,
Anjum Rosha
,
Ms. Chanda M DeLong
, and
Ms. Nadia Rendak
One consequence of interest rates remaining “too low for too long” since the Global Financial Crisis is the buildup in private leverage in emerging economies. These vulnerabilities have been laid bare by the COVID-19 shock. This paper employs the growth at risk framework (Adrian, Boyarchenko, and Giannone, 2019) to examine how different types of private leverage present risks to future GDP growth in Asian economies. We find evidence that private leverage can boost GDP growth in the near term, but can increase the risks of low growth over the medium term. For our sample, we also find that household debt poses a larger drag on future GDP growth than corporate debt. In the second part of the paper, we provide an overview of a strategy for prevention and resolution of over-indebtedness, with a focus on legal tools, and with considerations to account for the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a novel cross-country survey, we examine the role of legal techniques to prevent and treat corporate and household over-indebtedness, benchmarking those in ASEAN-5, China, India, Japan and Korea against international best practice. The analysis can inform a country-specific prioritized approach to strengthening legal frameworks.
Keywords:
WP; household debt; legal system; debt enforcement; enterprise debt; restructuring mechanism; resource allocation; reorganization procedure; debt restructuring; disposable income; repayment plan; enterprise liability; a number of debt-restructuring option; Solvency; Debt restructuring; Legal support in revenue administration; Corporate insolvency; Credit; Global; Private debt; corporate debt; legal frameworks; insolvency; household debt expansion; Asia and Pacific
Cover The ASEAN Way
The ASEAN Way
Sustaining Growth and Stability
Ms. Ana Corbacho
and
Mr. Shanaka J Peiris

Abstract

The first part of the book examines the evolution of monetary policy and prudential frameworks of the ASEAN­5, with particular focus on changes since the Asian financial crisis and the more recent period of unconventional monetary policy in advanced economies. The second part of the book looks at policy responses to global financial spillovers. The third and last part of the book elaborates on the challenges ahead for monetary policy, financial stability frameworks, and the deepening of financial markets.

Keywords:
BOOK; monetary policy; exchange rate; economy; inflation expectation; transmission mechanism; monetary policy framework; ASEAN economy; Association of Southeast Asian Nations-5; inflation-targeting regime; Macroprudential policy; Financial sector stability; Inflation; Foreign exchange intervention; Global; Asia and Pacific; North America; Southeast Asia; Europe; countercyclical monetary policy; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Caribbean
Cover Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential
Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential
Mr. Luis E Breuer
,
Mr. Jaime Guajardo
, and
Mr. Tidiane Kinda

Abstract

Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overview by former Finance Minister Chatib Basri, with subsequent chapters covering diverse sectors of the economy as well as Indonesia’s place in the global economy.

Keywords:
BOOK; Indonesia; government; economy; commodity; value-added tax; trade exposure; streamlining product market; commodity exporter; foreign currency; Exports; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Infrastructure; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Africa; output dynamics
Cover Policy Papers
The Fund's Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt-Further Considerations
International Monetary Fund
In discussing the June 2014 paper, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to introduce more flexibility into the Fund’s exceptional access framework to reduce unnecessary costs for the member, its creditors, and the overall system. Directors’ views varied on staff’s proposal to eliminate the systemic exemption introduced in 2010. Many Directors favored removing the exemption but some others preferred to retain it and requested staff to consult further with relevant stakeholders on possible approaches to managing contagion. This paper offers specific proposals on how the Fund’s policy framework could be changed, presents staff’s analysis on the specific issue of managing contagion, and addresses some implementation issues. No Board decision is proposed at this stage. The paper is consistent with the Executive Board’s May 2013 endorsement of a work program focused on strengthening market-based approaches to resolving sovereign debt crises.
Keywords:
PP; fund's lending framework; lending; further consideration; annex; framework; financing commitment; Market access criterion; debt restructuring; prospects lie; Debt restructuring; Debt sustainability; Spillovers; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Monetary Tightening: Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises
Mr. Julio Escolano
,
Ms. Christina Kolerus
, and
Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana
This paper finds that tightening global financial conditions can worsen emerging economies’ public debt dynamics through an increasing interest rate-growth differential, particularly if coupled with high global risk aversion. Latin America and emerging Europe are the regions most likely to be adversely affected. In addition, historical evidence—analyzed by means of a Poisson count model—suggests that the frequency of sovereign debt crises increases in emerging economies at the early stage of U.S. monetary tightening cycles, at times in which the term spread also rises. The timing may be related to abrupt switches of expectations about the future course of policy in the early stages of tightening cycles.
Keywords:
WP; debt crisis; Debt dynamics; emerging markets; sovereign debt crisis; unconventional; EM interest rates; EMS Interest Rate Growth Differential; growth differential; non-resident debt; EM debt dynamics; debt fundamentals; Bond yields; Yield curve; Monetary tightening; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malaysia: Financial Sector Assessment Program Banking System Spillovers-Technical Note
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note focuses on banking system spillovers of Malaysia. The note examines the presence of foreign banks and the potential for problems in other jurisdictions to spillover to Malaysia and the overseas operations of Malaysian banks, which make their performance and solvency more exposed to economic and political developments abroad. A key facet of the current crisis is serious problems in advanced economy banks, suggesting a role for spillovers from their claims on Malaysia. Notwithstanding the Asian Financial Crisis, foreign claims of BIS-reporting banks on Malaysia have generally been on an increasing trend since the early 1990s.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; bank claim; Malaysia; Eurozone bank; HSBC Holdings; Malaysian bank; U.K. bank; foreign bank; bank share; Singaporean bank; exposures to Malaysia; bank exposure; bank expansion; Foreign banks; Foreign currency exposure; Commercial banks; Bank credit; Asia and Pacific; Europe; East Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macro-Financial Implications of Corporate (De)Leveraging in the Euro Area Periphery
Ms. Manuela Goretti
and
Mr. Marcos R Souto
High corporate indebtedness can pose an important threat to the adjustment processes in some of the Euro area periphery countries, through its drag on investment as well as the possible migration of private sector losses to the sovereign balance sheet. This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of corporate debt overhang in recent years, confirming empirical evidence in the literature on the relationship between a firm’s balance sheet position and its investment choices, especially beyond certain threshold levels. Building on an event study of past crisis experiences with corporate deleveraging, it also discusses the expected macro-financial impact of the ongoing deleveraging processes in these countries, presenting available policy options to facilitate an orderly balance-sheet adjustment and support a return to productivity and growth.
Keywords:
WP; firm; capital structure; net; balance sheet indicator; Corporate Investment; Debt overhang; Deleveraging; Crisis; Euro Area; investment decision; investment-to-capital ratio; funding option; firms' ability; Financial statements; Debt burden; Debt restructuring; East Asia; Global; Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
Macroprudential Frameworks in Asia
Mr. Steven A Barnett
and
Mr. Rodolfo Maino
This Departmental Paper portrays a cross-country dimension of macroprudential policy implementation in Asia, advancing a comprehensive overview of institutional arrangements and instruments deployed by individual countries to address systemic risk, including risk concentration and interconnectedness. This book is the first comprehensive collection of papers assessing the existing institutional arrangements for macroprudential policies in Asia.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; monetary policy; central bank; financial system; inflation targeting; interest rate; financial crisis; systemic risk; banking sector; Financial sector stability; Macroprudential policy; Systemic risk; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global; Asia and Pacific; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Explaining ASEAN-3’s Investment Puzzle A Tale of Two Sectors
Yong Sarah Zhou
The prolonged investment decline in post-Asian crisis emerging Asia, in contrast to the swift recovery of economic growth, has remained a puzzle. This paper shows that the post-crisis investment recession has been mainly concentrated in the nontradable sector, and hypothesizes that the slowdown is because firms operating in that sector are financially constrained. Empirical results based on macro and firm-level data from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand (ASEAN-3) support this hypothesis.
Keywords:
WP; firm; nontradable firm; nontradable sector firm; Bank credit; private investment; Tobin’s Q; corporate investment; post crisis investment recovery; sector output; investment slump; nontradable sector investment; post crisis credit stagnation; post crisis period; Credit; Loans; Currencies; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth and Crisis, Unavoidable Connection?
Mr. Roberto Piazza
In emerging economies periods of rapid growth and large capital inflows can be followed by sudden stops and financial crises. I show that, in the presence of financial markets imperfections, a simple modification of a neoclassical growth model can account for these facts. I study a growth model for a small open economy where decreasing marginal returns to capital appear only after the country has reached a threshold level of development, which is uncertain. Limited enforceability of contracts allows default on international debt. International investors optimally choose to suddenly restrict lending when the appearance of decreasing marginal returns slows down growth. The economy defaults and enters a financial crisis.
Keywords:
WP; mover accent