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Mrs. Sarwat Jahan
,
Ms. Elena Loukoianova
,
Mr. Evan Papageorgiou
,
Ms. Natasha X Che
,
Ankita Goel
,
Mike Li
,
Umang Rawat
,
Yong Sarah Zhou
, and
Ankita Goel
Drawing on survey responses from 34 Asian economies and country case studies, this note takes stock of recent developments related to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and crypto assets in Asia. The survey finds that there is significant heterogeneity in terms of stage of development, but the emergence of private crypto assets has created an impetus to consider CBDCs. While most countries are engaged in research and development, with some at advanced stages of testing and pilots, very few countries are likely to issue CBDCs in the near-to-medium term, reflecting the still considerable uncertainties. Still, country experiences so far provide some key insights for others in their journey in this area.
Ms. Ghada Fayad
A case study approach is used to assess the multi-pronged policy response of seven small financially open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes to external shocks following the global financial crisis. FX intervention was frequently used— including during outflow episodes to prevent disorderly depreciation and preserve financial stability. Monetary policy often considered both financial and external stability. Capital flow management measures were sometimes calibrated symmetrically over the cycle while macroprudential measures were mostly deployed during inflow episodes. Assessment of the macroeconomic conditions paints an inconclusive picture on the benefits or costs of such policies, suggesting the need for further analysis.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Detailed Assessment of Observance on Insurance Core Principles on Thailand discusses that the government of Thailand has made a concerted effort to develop the insurance sector. The government has implemented a series of insurance development plans toward this end. Some significant regulatory and supervisory challenges remain, however, if Thailand is to continue to meet the pressures of a changing market and to continue to build the trust on which future growth depends. Consideration should be given to vesting more supervisory authority for key supervisory decisions with the Commission rather than with the Minister and Cabinet. Vesting authority with the Commission will help to ensure that the insurance supervisor has adequate powers to meet the objectives of insurance supervision. With respect to winding up and exit from the market, the insurance legislation should be amended to clearly establish a point at which it is no longer permissible for a troubled insurer to continue in business.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Detailed Assessment of Observance on the Basel Core Principles (BCP) for effective banking supervision on Thailand highlights that there have been significant enhancements to the legal framework and the supervisory process since the last BCP review, resulting in high compliance. The commercial banking sector appears to be sound and stable with a diversified lending profile and a steady source of funding. The involvement of other ministerial authorities in Specialized Financial Institutions supervision may affect standard-setting processes and the mindset of key decision makers for commercial banks when trying to level regulatory standards. The supervisory framework and practices provide the foundation for the continued development of risk-based supervision. Notifications and examination manuals increasingly focus on analysis of qualitative factors such as governance, risk management and risk appetite statements to determine the bank’s composite rating. The report recommends that efficiency of enforcement actions would be increased by aligning Financial Institutions Business Act requirements and Bank of Thailand internal practices.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note on the risk assessment for Thailand discusses that the Thai banking system shows a substantial resilience to severe shocks. The solvency stress tests indicate that the largest banks can withstand an adverse scenario broadly as severe as the Asian financial crisis. While three banks would deplete their capital conservation buffer (CCB) under the adverse scenario, recapitalization needs would be minimal. A battery of complementary sensitivity stress tests, which allows to cover in more detail certain risk factors, also confirmed the overall picture of a resilient baking system: no particular vulnerability emerged from the analysis of the bond portfolio to an increase in government and corporate spreads, exposure to foreign exchange risk, and concentration risk in the loan portfolio, with the possible exception of one entity with a particular concentration on single-name exposures. The liquidity stress test on investment funds (IFs) showed that they would be able to withstand a severe redemption shock and its impact on the banks and the bond market would be limited.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on Thailand highlights that assets of the insurance and mutual fund sectors have doubled as a share of gross domestic product over the last decade, and capital markets are largely on par with regional peers. The report discusses significant slowdown in China and advanced economies, a sharp rise in risk premia, and entrenched low inflation would adversely impact the financial system. Stress tests results suggest that the banking sector is resilient to severe shocks and that systemic and contagion risks stemming from interlinkages are limited. Financial system oversight is generally strong, but the operational independence of supervisory agencies can be strengthened further. The operational independence of supervisory agencies can be strengthened further by reducing the involvement of the Ministry of Finance in prudential issues and ensuring that each agency has full control over decisions that lie within its areas of responsibility.
Mr. Ashraf Khan
This paper argues that central bank legal protection contributes to safeguarding a central bank and its financial supervisor’s independence, especially for conducting monetary and financial stability policy. However, such legal protection also entails enhanced accountability. To this end, the paper provides a selected overview of legal protection for central banks and financial supervisors (if the supervisor is part of the central bank), focusing on liability, immunity, and indemnification arrangements, and based on the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database. The paper also uses data from the IMF’s Article IV and FSAP Database, and the IMF MCM’s Technical Assistance Database. It lists selected country cases for illustrative purposes. It introduces the concepts of “appropriate legal protection” and “function-specific legal protection” as topics for further research.
Mr. Luis E Breuer
,
Mr. Jaime Guajardo
, and
Mr. Tidiane Kinda

Abstract

Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overview by former Finance Minister Chatib Basri, with subsequent chapters covering diverse sectors of the economy as well as Indonesia’s place in the global economy.

International Monetary Fund
operational guidance to staff on reserve adequacy discussions in the IMF’s bilateral and multilateral surveillance. It is based on the views presented in the policy paper Assessing Reserve Adequacy—Specific Proposals and the related Board discussion. The note addresses key issues related to Staff’s advice on the assessment of the adequacy of reserves and related items, including answering the following questions: What is the expected coverage of reserve issues at different stages of the bilateral surveillance process (Policy Note, mission, and Staff Report)? Which reserve adequacy tools best fit different economies based on their financial maturity, economic flexibility, and market access? What do possible reserve needs in mature markets relate to, and how can their adequacy be assessed? How can reserve adequacy discussions for emerging and deepening financial markets be tailored and applied to better evaluate reserve levels in: (i) commodity-intensive economies; (ii) countries with capital flow management measures (CFMs); and (iii) partially and fully dollarized economies? What reserve adequacy considerations hold for countries with limited access to capital markets? How can metrics for these economies be tailored to evaluate their reserve needs? How should potential drains on reserves be covered? What are the various measures of the cost of reserves for countries with and without market access?
Mr. Robert M Heath
and
Evrim Bese Goksu
The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI), which aimed at addressing the information needs that were revealed by the 2007/2008 global financial crisis, concluded its first phase and started a second phase (DGI-2) with the endorsement of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in September 2015. The DGI-2 recommendations maintain the continuity of DGI-1 but reflecting the evolving policy needs focus more on datasets that support the monitoring of risks in the financial sector and the analysis of the inter-linkages across the economic and financial systems. The paper presents the DGI as an overarching initiative, bringing together various statistical frameworks for a complete picture of the economic and financial system to support the work of policy makers.