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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 48 items for :

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Cover Departmental Papers
Navigating External Shocks in Southeast Asia's Emerging Markets: Key Lessons and Challenges in Applying the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework
Corinne C Delechat
,
Umang Rawat
, and
Ara Stepanyan
As relatively small open economies, South-East Asian emerging markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand or ASEAN-4) are highly susceptible to external shocks—both financial and real—that could induce large capital flows and exchange rate volatility that could lead to foreign exchange market dysfunction. With the exception of Bank Negara Malaysia, ASEAN-4 central banks mostly have flexible inflation-targeting frameworks for monetary policy implementation. Their main policy objectives include medium-term price stability, sustainable economic growth, and financial stability. Central Banks in ASEAN-4 economies have been early pilots in the operationalization of the IMF’s Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in 2022-23, given their experience in using multiple policy tools besides the monetary policy rate, including macroprudential measures, foreign exchange intervention (FXI), and capital flow management measures, to achieve their multiple objectives. They have welcomed the IPF as a systematic, frictions-based approach to analyze the use of these multiple tools to manage trade-offs across policy objectives. This paper takes stock of the experience from these pilots, both from the perspective of country authorities and of IMF country teams. It aims at distilling key lessons, which could be used to inform broader IPF operationalization. The IPF conceptual framework and a related quantitative model were used to assess policy trade-offs in ASEAN-4 in the event of adverse external shocks. These applications reaffirmed the importance of using monetary policy to address persistent inflationary pressures stemming from real shocks and allowing the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. However, a complementary use of FXI could improve trade-offs between price, financial, and output stability when economies are faced with large and financial shocks that result in abrupt spikes in uncovered interest rate parity premia resulting in inefficiently tight financial conditions that could hurt growth or risking to de-anchor inflation expectations. The IPF pilots also highlighted some challenges faced when operationalizing IPF principles, notably regarding the assessment of frictions and shocks that might justify the use of FXI. In particular, country teams at times lacked sufficient information to adequately assess the extent of frictions. Moreover, the time-varying nature of IPF frictions and the non-linear effects of shocks make it difficult to assess situations when benefits of a complementary use of FXI would overweigh its costs.
Keywords:
ASEAN; foreign- exchange intervention; Inflation targeting; Integrated policy framework; capital flows; IPF pilot; market dysfunction; IMF country team; IPF model; Policy mix; IMF seminar participant; Currency markets; Exchange rates; Inflation; Southeast Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Multi-Currency Exchange and Contracting Platform
Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Federico Grinberg
,
Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
,
Robert M. Townsend
, and
Nicolas Zhang
Cross-border payments can be slow, expensive, and risky. They are intermediated by counterparties in different jurisdictions which rely on costly trusted relationships to offset the lack of a common settlement asset as well as common rules and governance. In this paper, we present a vision for a multilateral platform that could improve cross-border payments, as well as related foreign exchange transactions, risk sharing, and more generally, financial contracting. The approach is to leverage technological innovations for public policy objectives. A common ledger, smart contracts, and encryption offer significant gains to market efficiency, completeness, and access, as well as to transparency, transaction and compliance costs, and safety. This paper is a first step aiming to stimulate further work in this space.
Keywords:
Cross-border payments; multilateral platforms; digital money; CBDC; programmability; encryption; exchange-market illiquidity; risk sharing; market design; hedging risk; cross-border payment; Smart contracts; Currencies; Currency markets; Financial statements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Flow Data – A Guide for Empirical Analysis and Real-time Tracking
Mr. Robin Koepke
and
Simon Paetzold
This paper provides an analytical overview of the most widely used capital flow datasets. The paper is written as a guide for academics who embark on empirical research projects and for policymakers who need timely information on capital flow developments to inform their decisions. We address common misconceptions about capital flow data and discuss differences between high-frequency proxies for portfolio flows. In a nowcasting “horse race” we show that high-frequency proxies have significant predictive content for portfolio flows from the balance of payments (BoP). We also construct a new dataset for academic use, consisting of monthly portfolio flows broadly consistent with BoP data.
Keywords:
WP; flow data; portfolio flow; debt flow; flow proxy; IMF balance of payments statistic; portfolio flows; fund flows; balance of payments; coincident indicators; IIF data; IMF balance of payments data; Capital flows; Stocks; Balance of payments statistics; Flow of funds; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
G-20 Data Gaps Initiative II: Meeting the Policy Challenge
Mr. Robert M Heath
and
Evrim Bese Goksu
The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI), which aimed at addressing the information needs that were revealed by the 2007/2008 global financial crisis, concluded its first phase and started a second phase (DGI-2) with the endorsement of G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in September 2015. The DGI-2 recommendations maintain the continuity of DGI-1 but reflecting the evolving policy needs focus more on datasets that support the monitoring of risks in the financial sector and the analysis of the inter-linkages across the economic and financial systems. The paper presents the DGI as an overarching initiative, bringing together various statistical frameworks for a complete picture of the economic and financial system to support the work of policy makers.
Keywords:
WP; economy; DGI; G20 industrial nations; market; global financial system; data gaps; financial interconnections; global financial crisis; cross-border interconnectedness; financial sector; surveillance; regulation; securities financing market; IMF CDIS; short-term debt; data standard; DGI recommendation; DGI project; IMF paper; IMF managing director's action plan; DGI framework; CDS market; market complexity; Financial sector stability; Financial statements; Government finance statistics; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
What has Capital Liberalization Meant for Economic and Financial Statistics
Mr. Robert M Heath
The liberalization of capital flows both in the domestic economy and cross-border has been among the most important policies adopted by IMF member countries over recent decades. The impact has been wide-ranging. This paper looks at the impact on the field of economic and financial statistics in the past two decades, as statisticians have responded to the changing policy needs. The paper considers the historical context of changes that have occurred, draws out the key trends, and asks where these trends might lead statisticians in the foreseeable future. The paper considers that there has been nothing short of a revolution in the field of economic and financial statistics over the past two decades led by a need for greater transparency; greater standardization; new data sets to support understanding of financial interconnections and financial sector risks; and the strengthening of the governance of the statistical function through greater independence of statistical agencies.
Keywords:
WP; economic statistics; economy; liberalization; market; financial crisis; leading indicator; capital account liberalization; transparency; data dissmination standards; Group of Twenty; financial sector; financial interconnections; data dissemination standard; SDDS subscription; world balance of payments system; policy interest; balance of payments compiler; IMF paper; GDDS country; market reaction; SDDS requirements; IMF surveillance; a number of economy; IMF staff in consultation; Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS); Financial statistics; Data dissemination; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Private Information, Capital Flows, and Exchange Rates
Mr. Jacob Gyntelberg
,
Mr. Subhanij Tientip
, and
Mr. Mico Loretan
We demonstrate empirically that not all capital flows influence exchange rates equally: Capital flows induced by foreign investors’ stock market transactions have both an economically significant and a permanent impact on exchange rates, whereas capital flows induced by foreign investors’ transactions in government bond markets do not. We relate these differences in the price impact of capital flows to differences in the amounts of private information conveyed by these flows. Our empirical findings are based on novel, daily-frequency datasets on prices and quantities of all transactions of foreign investors in the stock, bond, and onshore FX markets of Thailand.
Keywords:
WP; FX order flow; FX transaction; FX dealer; Thai baht; bond order flow; bond order flow series; component FX order flow; customer order flow; FX order flow shock; FX risk; FX swap order flow; swap transaction; Order flow; private information; exchange rate models; market microstructure; exchange rate fluctuation; responses to FX order flow shock; FX order flow regression; flow series; Citibank customer order flow; Stock markets; Currency markets; Securities markets; Exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exchange Rate Fluctuations and International Portfolio Rebalancing in Thailand
Mr. Jacob Gyntelberg
,
Mr. Subhanij Tientip
, and
Mr. Mico Loretan
We present empirical evidence that the Thai baht’s value is driven in part by investors’ cross-border equity portfolio rebalancing decisions. Our results are based on comprehensive datasets of FX and stock market transactions undertaken by nonresident investors in Thailand in 2005 and 2006. Higher returns in the stock market relative to a reference stock market are associated with net sales of equities by these investors and a depreciation of the Thai baht. Net purchases of Thai equities lead to an appreciation of the Thai baht. Foreign investors do not appear to hedge the foreign exchange risk related to their stock market positions.
Keywords:
WP; investor; baht; exchange rate; dollar; Thailand; Foreign exchange market; capital flows; equity market; portfolio rebalancing; Thai baht; spot exchange rate; order flow; FX market; nonresident investor; Currency markets; Stock markets; Exchange rates; Currency swaps; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Surging Capital Flows to Emerging Asia: Facts, Impacts, and Responses
Sylwia Nowak
,
Mr. Sanjaya P Panth
,
Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
, and
Mr. Yiqun Wu
Net capital flows to emerging Asia rebounded at a record pace following the global financial crisis, raising concerns about overheating and financial stability. This paper documents the size and composition of the most recent surge to Asian emerging markets from a historical perspective and compares developments in the broader economy, asset prices, and corporate variables across the different episodes of strong inflows. We find little evidence of a significant build-up of imbalances and resource misallocation during the most recent surge. We also review country experiences in managing the risks associated with inflows and argue that Asian countries have used regulatory measures during past surges, although there is not strong evidence of their efficacy without supporting monetary and fiscal policies.
Keywords:
WP; ED142; financial crisis; Indonesia; Thailand; net capital; Asia; capital inflows; macroprudential policy; interest rate; net capital flow; portfolio equity; equity ratio; IMF staff calculation; portfolio debt; central bank; portfolio flow; Capital flows; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Balance of payments statistics; Private capital flows; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Kazakhstan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Kazakhstani banks continue to suffer from a high and rising stock of nonperforming loans. A centralized approach to asset resolution is warranted, and could be based on a reinvigorated Distressed Asset Fund. A robust and transparent public financial management system should be an integral part of any effective fiscal framework. Deeper and sophisticated domestic financial markets will help decline in dollarization and the associated risks. A sound medium-term fiscal framework, supportive monetary and exchange rate policies, and overall financial sector reform is required.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; asset; loan; market; capital; Kazakhstani bank; market infrastructure; bank assets; anti-crisis spending; expenditure rule; consolidation plan; terms of trade; Fiscal rules; Nonperforming loans; Distressed assets; Fiscal stance; Currency markets; Global; derivatives market; interest rate; I. resolving Nonperforming loan; financial market development; NPL resolution; development in Kazakhstan; E. strengthening regulation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sovereign Default, Private Sector Creditors and the IFIs
Ms. Emine Boz
This paper builds a model of a sovereign borrower that has access to credit from private sector creditors and an IFI. Private sector creditors and the IFI offer different debt contracts that are modelled based on the institutional frameworks of these two types of debt. We analyze the decisions of a sovereign on how to allocate its borrowing needs between these two types of creditors, and when to default on its debt to the private sector creditor. The numerical analysis shows that, consistent with the data; the model predicts countercyclical IFI debt along with procyclical commercial debt flows, also matching other features of the data such as frequency of IFI borrowing and mean IFI debt stock.
Keywords:
WP; IFI debt; debt flow; default probability; emerging markets; sovereign debt and default; IFIs; IMF debt; IMF lending; price schedule; Multilateral development institutions; Private debt; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Debt default; Global