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Mr. Dong He
,
Annamaria Kokenyne
,
Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
,
Mr. Marcello Miccoli
,
Mr. Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson
,
Gabriel Soderberg
, and
Hervé Tourpe
This fintech note looks at how capital flow measures (CFMs) could be implemented with central bank digital currency (CBDC), and what benefits, risks and complexities could arise. There are several implications of the analysis. First, CBDC ecosystems should generally be designed such that they can accommodate the introduction of CFMs. Second, thanks to the programmability of the payment infrastructure given by the new digital technologies, certain CFMs could likely be implemented more efficiently and effectively with CBDC compared to the traditional system. Third, implementing CFMs requires central banks to collaborate on practices and standards. Finally, CFMs on CBDC need to operate alongside traditional CFMs.
Ms. Manuela Goretti
,
Mr. Lamin Y Leigh
,
Aleksandra Babii
,
Mr. Serhan Cevik
,
Stella Kaendera
,
Mr. Dirk V Muir
,
Sanaa Nadeem
, and
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Mr. Mark S. Carlson
and
Mr. Leonardo Hernández
The Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises of the mid- and late 1990s have renewed interest among policymakers in the determinants and effects of private capital inflows. This paper analyzes whether policies can affect the composition of capital inflows and whether different compositions aggravate crises. The results support the view that, while fundamentals matter, capital controls can affect the mix of capital inflows that countries receive. The results also show that during the Asian crisis, countries with more yen-denominated debt faired worse, while during the Mexican crisis larger short-term debt stocks increased the severity of the crisis.
Mr. Taimur Baig
and
Mr. Ilan Goldfajn
This paper tests for evidence of contagion between the financial markets of Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea, and the Philippines. Cross-country correlations among currencies and sovereign spreads are found to increase significantly during the crisis period, whereas the equity market correlations offer mixed evidence. A set of dummy variables using daily news is constructed to capture the impact of own-country and cross-border news on the markets. After controlling for own-country news and other fundamentals, the paper shows evidence of cross-border contagion in the currency and equity markets.