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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 98 items for :

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  • International Investment; Long-term Capital Movements x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Unveiling the Dance of Commodity Prices and the Global Financial Cycle
Luciana Juvenal
and
Ivan Petrella
We examine the impact of commodity price changes on the business cycles and capital flows in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), distinguishing between their role as a source of shock and as a channel of transmission of global shocks. Our findings reveal that surges in export prices, triggered by commodity price shocks, boost domestic GDP, an effect further amplified by the endogenous decline of country spreads. However, the effects on capital flows appear muted. Shifts in U.S. monetary policy and global risk appetite drive the global financial cycle in EMDEs. Eased global credit conditions, attributed to looser U.S. monetary policy or lower global risk appetite, lead to a rise in export prices, higher output, a decrease in government borrowing costs, and stimulate greater capital flows. The endogenous response of export prices amplifies the output effects of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy while country spreads magnify the impact of shifts in global risk appetite.
Keywords:
risk appetite; energy commodity; commodity channel; commodity price instrument; commodity event; impact of commodity price fluctuation; commodity export; fluctuations in commodity price; monetary policy shock; commodity prices to shock; interaction term; commodity prices to a BAA; commodity c; Commodity prices; Export prices; Capital flows; Commodity price shocks; Commodity price fluctuations; Global
Cover FinTech Notes
Capital Flow Management Measures in the Digital Age (2): Design Choices for Central Bank Digital Currency
Mr. Dong He
,
Annamaria Kokenyne
,
Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
,
Mr. Marcello Miccoli
,
Mr. Thorvardur Tjoervi Olafsson
,
Gabriel Soderberg
, and
Hervé Tourpe
This fintech note looks at how capital flow measures (CFMs) could be implemented with central bank digital currency (CBDC), and what benefits, risks and complexities could arise. There are several implications of the analysis. First, CBDC ecosystems should generally be designed such that they can accommodate the introduction of CFMs. Second, thanks to the programmability of the payment infrastructure given by the new digital technologies, certain CFMs could likely be implemented more efficiently and effectively with CBDC compared to the traditional system. Third, implementing CFMs requires central banks to collaborate on practices and standards. Finally, CFMs on CBDC need to operate alongside traditional CFMs.
Keywords:
Central bank digital currency; Capital flow measures; CBDC implementation; CBDC ecosystem; IMF Fintech Note 2023/009; IMF Library; smart CFMs; fencing CBDC; Central Bank digital currencies; Capital flow management; Capital flows; Foreign assets; Digital wallets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inequality and the Structure of Countries’ External Liabilities
Philipp Harms
,
Mathias Hoffmann
,
Miriam Kohl
, and
Tobias Krahnke
In this paper, we present empirical evidence that higher income inequality is associated with a greater equity share in countries' external liabilities, and we develop a theoretical model that can explain this observation: In a small open economy with traded and nontraded goods, entry barriers depress entrepreneurial activity in nontraded industries and raise income inequality. The small number of domestic nontraded-goods firms leaves room for foreign firms to operate on the domestic market, and it reduces external borrowing. The model suggests that barriers to entrepreneurial activity could be conducive to attract equity-type capital inows. Our empirical results lend some support to this conjecture.
Keywords:
Portfolio Equity; Foreign direct investment; External debt; External liabilities; Income Inequality; entry barrier; equity share; barriers to entrepreneurial activity; traded-goods firm; Income; Portfolio investment; Self-employment; South Asia; East Asia; Foreign corporations
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Medium-Scale DSGE Model for the Integrated Policy Framework
Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Vitor Gaspar
, and
Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper jointly analyzes the optimal conduct of monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy, and capital flow management. This policy analysis is based on an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy, featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages with endogenous risk, and diverse spillover transmission channels. In the pursuit of inflation and output stabilization objectives, it is optimal to adjust all policies in response to domestic and global financial cycle upturns and downturns when feasible—including foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management under some conditions—to widely varying degrees depending on the structural characteristics of the economy. The framework is applied empirically to four small open advanced and emerging market economies.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Foreign Exchange Intervention; Fiscal Policy; Macroprudential Policy; Capital Flow Management; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model; Small Open Economy; Policy transmission mechanisms; price inflation; scenario assumption; policy rule parameter; policy rule response coefficient; Mortgages; Consumption; Foreign exchange intervention; Inflation; Capital flow management; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Caught in the Crosswinds: The Experiences of Selected Economies Responding to External Volatility with Multiple Policy Levers
Ms. Ghada Fayad
A case study approach is used to assess the multi-pronged policy response of seven small financially open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes to external shocks following the global financial crisis. FX intervention was frequently used— including during outflow episodes to prevent disorderly depreciation and preserve financial stability. Monetary policy often considered both financial and external stability. Capital flow management measures were sometimes calibrated symmetrically over the cycle while macroprudential measures were mostly deployed during inflow episodes. Assessment of the macroeconomic conditions paints an inconclusive picture on the benefits or costs of such policies, suggesting the need for further analysis.
Keywords:
emerging markets; monetary and exchange rate policies; inflation targeting; foreign exchange intervention; capital flows; macroprudential measures.; WP; monetary policy decision; exchange rate volatility; inflation targeting regime; monetary policy independence; FX turnover BIS data; macroprudential measures; inflation expectation; depreciation pressure; Inflation; Exchange rates; Financial sector stability; Depreciation; Central bank policy rate; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
External Financing Dependence and Corporate Saving in ASEAN5
Xin Li
Using firm-level data on ASEAN5, this paper studies the differential effects of macro-financial and structural factors on corporate saving behavior through the lens of external financing dependence. The finding suggests that non-financial corporations in ASEAN5 have been subject to binding financial constraints over the past two decades. Greater capital account openness or exchange rate depreciation reduces the average saving rate of industries with low dependence on external funds, while it increases the saving rate of industries with high dependence on external funds. The effects are greater for export-oriented industries. An improvement in banking sector competition, banks’ lending efficiency, or policy clarity is associated with lower saving rate of firms across the board.
Keywords:
ASEAN countries; corporate saving; external financing need; export-orientation; financial constraint; capital account openness; exchange rate depreciation.; WP; saving rate; high-tech company; Level analysis; tech firm; firm's use; precautionary saving theory; saving behavior; use of external finance; exchange rate depreciation; Financial sector development; Commercial banks; Capital flows; Currencies; Precautionary savings; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Socio-Economic Spillovers from Special Economic Zones: Evidence from Cambodia
Mariya Brussevich
This study examines the socio-economic impact of special economic zones (SEZs) in Cambodia---a prominent place-based policy established in 2005. The paper employs a database on existing and future SEZs in Cambodia with matched household surveys at the district level and documents stylized facts on SEZs in a low-income country setting. To identify causal effects of the SEZ program, the paper (i) constructs an alternative control group including future SEZ program participants and districts adjacent to SEZ hosts; and (ii) employs a propensity score weighting technique. The study finds that entry of SEZs disproportionately benefits female workers and leads to a decline of income inequality at a district level. However, the findings also suggest that land values in SEZ districts tend to rise while wage levels remain largely unchanged relative to other districts. In addition, the paper tests for socio-economic spillovers to surrounding areas and for agglomeration effects associated with clusters of multiple SEZs.
Keywords:
WP; SEZ program; SEZ entry; SEZ firm; program participation; SEZ district; SEZ location; Employment; Wages; Income; Income inequality; Labor markets; Special Economic Zones; Place-Based Policy; Low-Income Country; Foreign Direct Investment; SEZ effect; SEZ developer; SEZ trend; tagged SEZ database; SEZ program participation; SEZ intensity; propensity score weighting technique; Policy implication; impact of special economic zones; Women
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Flow Data – A Guide for Empirical Analysis and Real-time Tracking
Mr. Robin Koepke
and
Simon Paetzold
This paper provides an analytical overview of the most widely used capital flow datasets. The paper is written as a guide for academics who embark on empirical research projects and for policymakers who need timely information on capital flow developments to inform their decisions. We address common misconceptions about capital flow data and discuss differences between high-frequency proxies for portfolio flows. In a nowcasting “horse race” we show that high-frequency proxies have significant predictive content for portfolio flows from the balance of payments (BoP). We also construct a new dataset for academic use, consisting of monthly portfolio flows broadly consistent with BoP data.
Keywords:
WP; flow data; portfolio flow; debt flow; flow proxy; IMF balance of payments statistic; portfolio flows; fund flows; balance of payments; coincident indicators; IIF data; IMF balance of payments data; Capital flows; Stocks; Balance of payments statistics; Flow of funds; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature
Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
This paper documents the evolution of gross and net capital flows to emerging market economies and surveys the large literature on the potential drivers. While the capital flow landscape has been shaped by the evolution of both global and country-specific factors, the relative importance of these factors has varied over time and differs depending on the type of capital flows. The findings from the survey of the literature thus underscores the importance of policies in both source and recipient countries in shaping capital flows.
Keywords:
Capital flows; emerging markets; push and pull factors; literature survey; novel high frequency portfolio-capital dataset; understanding capital control; differential vis-à-vis; capital openness; interest rate differential vis-à-vis; push factor; evolving capital flow landscape; gross capital flow; high frequency portfolio-capital dataset; capital allocation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Capital inflows; Capital controls; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global
Cover Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide (Third Edition)
Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide (Third Edition)
Venkat Josyula

Abstract

This third edition of the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey Guide has been prepared to assist economies that participate or are preparing to participate in the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS). It builds on and updates the second edition of the CPIS Guide (2002) to reflect the adoption of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, sixth edition (BPM6) as the standard framework for compiling cross-border position statistics.

Keywords:
M&G; portfolio investment data collection system; investment; CPIS data template; survey questionnaire; investment survey; CPIS metadata questionnaire; Securities; Portfolio investment; Stocks; Foreign direct investment; Bonds; Global; Caribbean; CPIS data; securities holding; portfolio investment liability; liability position; CPIS Task Force; portfolio investment securities; Business enterprises