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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 55 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Fiscal Policy x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
fan chart; household debt; Thailand's debt ceiling; public debt debt ceiling; estimates of debt limits; Debt limits; Consumer credit; Loans; Consumer loans; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Develop and Implement a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework
Teresa R Curristine
,
Isabell Adenauer
,
Virginia Alonso-Albarran
,
John Grinyer
,
Koon Hui Tee
,
Claude P Wendling
, and
Delphine Moretti
This Note provides guidance on developing and implementing a medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF). MTFFs aim to promote fiscal discipline and sustainability, transparency, and better-informed fiscal decisions. An MTFF comprises a set of institutional arrangements for prioritizing, presenting, reporting, and managing fiscal aggregates - revenue, expenditure, balance, and debt - generally over a three-to-five-year period. It incorporates a fiscal strategy, medium-term projections of key macroeconomic variables and fiscal aggregates, and ceilings on total expenditure to guide subsequent annual budgets. By introducing a medium-term perspective into fiscal and budgetary decision making, MTFFs provide a clearer understanding of the impact, trade-offs, and risks of policy choices. MTFFs contribute to enhancing transparency and accountability by communicating the government’s medium-term fiscal goals, policies, and fiscal performance. Ultimately, clarity on medium-term fiscal plans and on their effective implementation can bolster confidence in the government’s ability to manage its finances prudently and competently. In addition to providing guidance on how to design an MTFF and the institutional and technical arrangements needed to support implementation, the Note discusses key challenges and presents country examples from across the globe by income group and concludes with lessons learned.
Keywords:
fiscal frameworks; fiscal planning; budget cycles; MTFF; medium-term fiscal framework; emerging market economy country example; MTFF specification; koon hui tee; MTFF projection Tool; MTFF time horizon; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Fiscal risks; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Thailand’s economy is recovering from an unprecedented crisis emanating from multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ample policy space has allowed a swift and bold policy response and vaccine rollout has accelerated. However, the recovery is weak and uneven across sectors, with inflation rapidly rising driven by energy prices. Downside risks dominate the outlook, sharpening policy tradeoffs. The pandemic has also brought to the fore the urgency for Thailand to identify new growth drivers to reverse the pre-pandemic trend of declining productivity growth and meet the challenges of the post-pandemic world.
Keywords:
net portfolio inflow; inflation expectation; Medium-term government bond bond yield; inflation dynamics; monetary policy committee meeting; Inflation; Trade balance; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Effective Fiscal-Monetary Interactions in Severe Recessions
Mr. Jiaqian Chen
,
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
,
Carlos Goncalves
,
Tryggvi Gudmundsson
,
Martina Hengge
,
Zoltan Jakab
, and
Jesper Lindé
The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent need for policy support have called the traditional separation between fiscal and monetary policies into question. Based on simulations of an open economy DSGE model calibrated to emerging and advance economies and case study evidence, the analysis shows when constraints are binding a more integrated approach of looking at policies can lead to a better policy mix and ultimately better macroeconomic outcomes under certain circumstances. Nonetheless, such an approach entails risks, necessitating a clear assessment of each country’s circumstances as well as safeguards to protect the credibility of the existing institutional framework.
Keywords:
monetary policy rate; government spending hike; recession scenario; rate in Botswana; hike in liquidity trap; open economy; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Fiscal stimulus; Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.
Keywords:
vaccination plan; vaccine brand; pace of vaccination; Bank of Thailand 's Monetary Policy Committee; government's reopening plan; U.S. dollar; COVID-19; Trade balance; Tourism; Loans; Fiscal stimulus; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macro-Fiscal Aftermath of Weather-Related Disasters: Do Loss Dimensions Matter?
Mrs. Kerstin Gerling
Weather-related natural disasters and climate change pose interrelated macro-fiscal challenges. Using panel-VARX studies for a sample of 19 countries in Developing Asia during 1970 to 2015, this paper contributes new empirical evidence on the dynamic adjustment path of growth and key fiscal variables after severe weather-related disasters. It does not only show that output loss can be permanent, but even twice as large for cases of severe casualties or material damages than people affected. Meanwhile, key fiscal aggregates remain surprisingly stable. Event and case studies suggest that this can reflect both a deliberate policy choice or binding constraints. The latter can make governments respond through mitigating fiscal policy efforts such as ad hoc fiscal rebalancing and reprioritization. The findings help better customize disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts to countries’ risk exposure along a particular loss dimension.
Keywords:
WP; capital expenditure; Das country; private sector; weather-related natural disasters; climate change; growth; fiscal policy; loss dimension; loss measure; loss intensity threshold; loss threshold; disaster risk; material loss; demand management; government effectiveness; fiscal policy response; Natural disasters; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nigeria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses a few selected issues of the Nigerian economy—options and strategies for a fiscal rule for oil wealth management, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy, and recent developments and prospects of capital flow. Despite its diversified economy, Nigeria’s fiscal policy is heavily dependent on the oil sector. This paper explores options for a formalized rule-based approach to setting a “depoliticized” budget oil price. Two boom-and-bust episodes since early 2000 have highlighted the challenges in the current monetary policy framework. Nigeria has also been characterized by sizable capital outflows, which have diminished recently.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; firm; Nigeria; monetary policy; price rule; enterprise survey; large firm; firm Size; containment rule; Oil prices; Capital flows; Capital inflows; Fiscal governance; Corporate sector; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malaysia: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The IMF staff report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation focuses on Malaysia’s economic developments and policies. The IMF report discusses that continued growth in domestic demand, especially investment, and a pickup in external demand should help maintain robust growth going forward despite the fiscal tightening. Amidst concerns about Malaysia’s public finances and sharp narrowing of the external surplus in spring–summer of 2013, authorities have taken timely action to secure fiscal sustainability and assure markets. It suggests that authorities’ decisions in 2013 are close to a fiscal policy breakthrough aiming to contain federal debt and related fiscal risks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy flexibility; policy; regulation; public finance; policy issue; market distortion; household debt; exchange arrangement; data standard; policy stance; Inflation; Value-added tax; Fiscal consolidation; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Big Split: Why Did Output Trajectories in the ASEAN-4 Diverge after the Global Financial Crisis?
Agnes Isnawangsih
,
Mr. Vladimir Klyuev
, and
Ms. Longmei Zhang
The global financial crisis originated in advanced economies, but had a major impact on emerging markets. The impact, however, was not uniform. Even in a relatively homogenous group of countries such as ASEAN-4 (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand), there were considerable differences both in terms of instantaneous impact of the crisis and in terms of output performance relative to trend. There are several main reasons for the divergence. First, trade shocks had a larger impact on more open economies (Malaysia and Thailand). Second, countercyclical fiscal stimulus in Indonesia and the Philippines was larger and was sustained longer. Third, idiosyncratic factors pushed output up in Indonesia and down in Thailand. Such factors include investment-friendly structural reforms and fortuitously timed election spending in Indonesia, as well as political instability and natural disasters in Thailand.
Keywords:
WP; Indonesia; Thailand; Philippines; IMF staff calculation; Malaysia; Global Financial Crisis; ASEAN; Countercyclical Policies; output gap; demand shock; Indonesia ma; potential GDP; Exports; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Fiscal stimulus; Capital outflows; Depreciation; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
Thailand is recovering from a challenging year marked by natural disasters of historic magnitude. This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that positive signs of a recovery are already under way with sharp improvements seen in high frequency indicators since December 2011. Executive Directors have commended the Thai authorities for their policy response to last year’s floods, which propelled the strong recovery under way. Directors have also supported the authorities’ ambitious reform agenda aimed at promoting more inclusive growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; policy; government; core inflation; redistribution policy; rice price guarantee scheme; flood-prevention effort; flood prevention; Thai baht; IMF staff estimate; slowing demand; Agricultural prices; Trade balance; Global