Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Externalities x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies
Allan Dizioli
,
Mr. Jaime Guajardo
,
Mr. Vladimir Klyuev
,
Rui Mano
, and
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Keywords:
WP; commodity price; growth slowdown; goods export; imports fall; policy shock; China’s slowdown and rebalancing; international business cycle; spillovers; Global VAR; Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM); ASEAN-5; service imports; commodity exporter; China's slowdown; trading partners; net commodity importer; Exports; Commodity prices; Imports; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Fund's Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt-Further Considerations
International Monetary Fund
In discussing the June 2014 paper, Executive Directors broadly supported staff’s proposal to introduce more flexibility into the Fund’s exceptional access framework to reduce unnecessary costs for the member, its creditors, and the overall system. Directors’ views varied on staff’s proposal to eliminate the systemic exemption introduced in 2010. Many Directors favored removing the exemption but some others preferred to retain it and requested staff to consult further with relevant stakeholders on possible approaches to managing contagion. This paper offers specific proposals on how the Fund’s policy framework could be changed, presents staff’s analysis on the specific issue of managing contagion, and addresses some implementation issues. No Board decision is proposed at this stage. The paper is consistent with the Executive Board’s May 2013 endorsement of a work program focused on strengthening market-based approaches to resolving sovereign debt crises.
Keywords:
PP; fund's lending framework; lending; further consideration; annex; framework; financing commitment; Market access criterion; debt restructuring; prospects lie; Debt restructuring; Debt sustainability; Spillovers; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Risks and Spillovers
International Monetary Fund
NULL
Keywords:
PP; The Fund; monetary policy; financial system; policy; risk; European financial system; policy institution; macro-prudential policy; spillover channel; beggar-thy-neighbor policy; Spillovers; Financial statements; Capital flows; Financial sector stability; Commercial banks; Global