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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 10 items for :

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Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Asia Pacific
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Asia Pacific
Asia at the Forefront: Growth Challenges for the Next Decade and Beyond
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept

Abstract

Growth in the first half of 2018 was softer than in 2017, especially in advanced economies. In contrast, growth remained robust in emerging market economies and broadly in line with expectations. After rising to 6.9 percent in 2017, growth in China continued to be strong into the first half of 2018 but has likely slowed since, given the latest high-frequency indicators, including weakening investment growth. In Japan, after exceeding potential for two years, growth dropped into negative territory in the first quarter of 2018 before rebounding sharply in the second quarter. In India, growth continues to recover steadily after the disruptions related to demonetization and the rollout of the goods and services tax in the last fiscal year.1 And in ASEAN-4 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand), growth generally lost momentum in the first half of 2018, except in Thailand.

Keywords:
REO; IMF staff calculation; economy; trade; growth strategy; growth; growth slowdown; Asia's growth; growth engine; trade tension scenario; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Tariffs; Digitalization; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Potential Growth in Emerging Asia
Rahul Anand
,
Mr. Kevin C Cheng
,
Sidra Rehman
, and
Ms. Longmei Zhang
Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.
Keywords:
WP; ASEAN economy; China; economy; trend growth; India; potential growth; total factor productivity; emerging Asia; dependency ratio; inflation picture; non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment; production function; Capital accumulation; Inflation; Aging; Labor force participation; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Explaining ASEAN-3’s Investment Puzzle A Tale of Two Sectors
Yong Sarah Zhou
The prolonged investment decline in post-Asian crisis emerging Asia, in contrast to the swift recovery of economic growth, has remained a puzzle. This paper shows that the post-crisis investment recession has been mainly concentrated in the nontradable sector, and hypothesizes that the slowdown is because firms operating in that sector are financially constrained. Empirical results based on macro and firm-level data from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand (ASEAN-3) support this hypothesis.
Keywords:
WP; firm; nontradable firm; nontradable sector firm; Bank credit; private investment; Tobin’s Q; corporate investment; post crisis investment recovery; sector output; investment slump; nontradable sector investment; post crisis credit stagnation; post crisis period; Credit; Loans; Currencies; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Corporate Governance Quality: Trends and Real Effects
Mr. Kenichi Ueda
,
Mr. Gianni De Nicolo
, and
Mr. Luc Laeven
This paper constructs a composite index of corporate governance quality, documents its evolution from 1994 through 2003 in selected emerging and developed economies, and assesses its impact on aggregate and corporate growth and productivity. Our investigation yields three main findings. First, corporate governance quality in most countries has overall improved, although to varying degrees and with a few notable exceptions. Second, the data exhibit cross-country convergence in corporate governance quality with countries that score poorly initially catching up with countries with high corporate governance scores. Third, the impact of improvements in corporate governance quality on traditional measures of real economic activity-GDP growth, productivity growth, and the ratio of investment to GDP- is positive, significant, and quantitatively relevant, and the growth effect is particularly pronounced for industries that are most dependent on external finance.
Keywords:
WP; CGQ Index; economic activity; growth rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Four years since the onset of the financial crisis, Thailand’s economic recovery remains fragile and is now threatened by a sharp slowdown in external demand. Bank and corporate sector restructuring policies have formed a key focus of the Article IV discussions. An important initiative to accelerate bank and corporate restructuring is the recent establishment of the Thai Asset Management Corporation (TAMC). An inadequate legal framework has been a major impediment to corporate debt restructuring. Even with an acceleration of bank and corporate restructuring, questions will remain about medium-term growth prospects.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; article IV consultation discussion; debt ratio; debtor; TFP growth; plan preparer; creditor negotiations; article IV discussion; chapter IV; debt projection; Nonperforming loans; Debt restructuring; Loans; Total factor productivity; Distressed assets; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers, Volume 46 No. 2
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper analyzes the predictability of currency crises. The paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. Two of the models failed to provide useful forecasts. One model provides forecasts that are somewhat informative though still not reliable. Plausible modifications to this model improve its performance, providing some hope that future models may do better. The study suggests, though, that although forecasting models may help indicate vulnerability to crises, the predictive power of even the best of them may be limited.
Keywords:
SP; IMF arrears; country; crop year; TFP growth; statistical data; performance vis-à-vis; Total factor productivity; Stock markets; Capital account; Current account; Nonperforming loans; East Asia; Western Europe; Europe; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth and Productivity in Asean Countries
Mr. Michael Sarel
This study examines the nature of the growth process in the ASEAN countries, and particularly whether it has been generated primarily by more inputs or by productivity gains. It uses internationally comparable data and explores an alternative method for estimating the capital and labor factor shares. The results, contradicting some previous studies, indicate a very impressive growth rate of TFP in Singapore, Thailand, and Malaysia, a relatively strong rate for Indonesia, and a negative rate for the Philippines. This study argues that the results of previous studies were driven mainly by the fact that they relied on national accounts data for measures of various variables and, in particular, the factor income shares of capital and labor.
Keywords:
WP; growth rate; share; growth; TFP; productivity; ASEAN; factor share; capital share; TFP level; TFP estimate; income share; Total factor productivity; Production growth; Growth accounting; Public expenditure review; East Asia; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers: Volume 44 No. 1
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper argues that an important group of labor market policies are complementary in the sense that the effect of each policy is greater when implemented in conjunction with the other policies than in isolation. This may explain why the diverse, piecemeal labor market reforms in many European countries in recent years have had so little success in reducing unemployment. What is required instead is deeper labor market reforms across a broader range of complementary policies and institutions. To be politically feasible, these reforms must be combined with measures to address distributional issues.
Keywords:
SP; paper number; dependent variables in equation; CVD petition; Visa credit cards; priority mail delivery; Labor markets; Total factor productivity; Production growth; Productivity; Unemployment rate; Europe; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Baltics; North America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: Background Papers
International Monetary Fund
This Background Paper analyzes the Philippines's experience with capital inflows. It compares the episode of 1993–95 with the pre-debt crisis period, and makes the case that the recent inflows are in important respects more benevolent than in the past. The paper concludes that inflows are consistent with a balanced and sustainable revival in the Philippines economy, and indeed are most likely contributing to recovery. This paper also examines financial reintermediation and new challenges to monetary policy. Requirements and plans for the fiscal reform in the medium term are also described.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GNP; tax; Philippines; deficit; money demand; liquidity growth; TFP estimate; nominal exchange rate; productivity growth; reform proposal; monetary policy; Capital inflows; Total factor productivity; Demand for money; Liquidity; Asia and Pacific; East Asia
Cover Singapore
Singapore
A Case Study in Rapid Development
Mr. Kenneth Bercuson

Abstract

Since attaining independence in 1965, Singapore has experienced exceptionally rapid growth, low inflation, and a healthy balance of payments. This paper reviews Singapore’s economic development from a long-term perspective and examines some of the factors that have contributed to the rapid growth.

Keywords:
OP; right; wage; Singapore economy; CPF savings; saving rate; correction Policy; financial services service sector; Total factor productivity; Private savings; Foreign direct investment; Labor costs; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific; Global; Europe; East Asia; Africa; Singapore's development; Wages; Caribbean