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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Econometric Modeling: General x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper assesses Indonesia’s trade integration relative to underlying country characteristics. The paper analyzes Indonesia’s vulnerabilities, especially compared with the eve of the crisis in 1997. Various indicators suggest that the underlying fundamentals are significantly stronger. The paper examines key features of the financial safety net (FSN) in view of international standards and concludes that the current system is capable of timely addressing bank problems. It looks at determinants of, and constraints to, credit growth in recent years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Indonesia; bank; spending; FDI inflow; priority spending; Indonesia's lack; chapter III; portfolio inflow; Credit; Fiscal space; Financial safety nets; Deposit insurance; Gravity models; Asia and Pacific; Global; East Asia; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices
Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart
,
Miguel A. Segoviano
, and
Boris Hofmann
This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper explores a range of financial and real variables that explain such PoDs across time. We find property price fluctuations and bank credit to be important explanatory factors. There is two-way interaction between these variables and a clearer relationship when the variables are entered as a deviation from trend. The lag structure between such developments and PoDs is long and varies widely across countries. The paper assesses the implications of these findings for economic policy.
Keywords:
WP; asset price; price bubble; property price; bank lending; Probability of default; credit risk; systemic risk; macroeconomic shocks; stress testing; financial surveillance; price variable; property boom; asset gap variable; asset price dynamics; asset price shock; asset price fluctuation; asset price surge; equity price; assets decrease; short interest; bank PoDs; asset price gap; Asset prices; Bank credit; Land prices; Credit; Financial statistics; East Asia