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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 3 of 3 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies
Allan Dizioli
,
Mr. Jaime Guajardo
,
Mr. Vladimir Klyuev
,
Rui Mano
, and
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Keywords:
WP; commodity price; growth slowdown; goods export; imports fall; policy shock; China’s slowdown and rebalancing; international business cycle; spillovers; Global VAR; Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM); ASEAN-5; service imports; commodity exporter; China's slowdown; trading partners; net commodity importer; Exports; Commodity prices; Imports; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia: A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis
Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena
and
Ms. Valerie Cerra
This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea. In particular, the results from a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model (which overcomes some drawbacks of previous methods) show that inclusion of exchange rate pressures from Thailand and Korea in the transition probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. There is also evidence of contagion in the stock market.
Keywords:
WP; transition probability; Currency crisis; Contagion; Indonesia; Markov-switching models; crisis state; Indonesia's MPI; pressure in Thailand; exchange rate pressure; forecasted values; crisis in Indonesia; exchange rate crisis; confidence index; overvalued exchange rate; MSM result; MPIS from Thailand; Exchange rates; Real effective exchange rates; Probit models; Stock markets; Asia and Pacific; Global; East Asia; South Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policy Responses to External Imbalances in Emerging Market Economies: Further Empirical Results
Luis Carranza
and
Mr. Chorng-Huey Wong
A bivariate vector-autoregression (VAR) model is used to test causal relations between the current account and the capital account in four emerging market economies. The results show that high capital mobility could be a major cause of current account instability. Therefore, macroeconomic policy to restore external balance must deal directly with capital inflows. The paper recommends making nominal exchange rate sufficiently flexible to avoid inconsistencies between short-run and long-run real exchange rates; complementing credit tightening by fiscal restraint to reduce interest rate differentials; and strengthening reforms and surveillance of the financial system to prevent banks from excessive risk taking.
Keywords:
WP; deficit; balance; nominal exchange rate; capital inflows; emerging market economies; external imbalances; exchange rate policy; policy designs; causality test; current account position; increase in capital account surplus; current account response; exchange rate volatility; capital account imbalance; capital account shock; interest rate differential; current account result; current account equilibrium; flexible exchange rate regime; exchange rate system; responses to shock; Capital account; Current account; Real exchange rates; Current account deficits