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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Real Estate x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper assesses the relationship between demographic trends and housing prices in Japan. Among various issues in the context of regional disparities, the paper focus on regional differences in population dynamics to try and understand to what extent demographic trends have influenced housing market prices in Japan in the past twenty years. Large cities, notably the Greater Tokyo area, are experiencing net migration inflows, while other regions are experiencing net migration outflows. Due to the durability of housing compared to other forms of investment, the magnitude of house price declines associated with population losses is larger than that of house price increases associated with population gains. These model-based predictions are likely to underestimate the actual fall in house prices associated with future population losses, as expectations of lower housing prices in the future could trigger more population outflows and disposal of houses, especially in rural areas. The paper suggests policy measures to help close regional disparities and avoid potential over-investment by taking account of demographic trends for housing supply.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Japan; fertility rate; income; income balance; fertility rate relationship; IMF staff calculation; Japan's fertility rate; GDP shock; Personal income; Housing prices; Price stabilization; Tourism; Inflation; Global; Middle East; Europe; North America; Asia and Pacific
Cover Policy Papers
The IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise - Design and Methodological Toolkit
International Monetary Fund
The Early Warning Exercise (EWE) draws together a combination of analytical techniques, practical experience, seasoned judgment and unique databases in order to assess the potential consequences associated with economic and financial tail risks. There are several key features of the exercise. First, the exercise aims to help prevent the occurrence of financial crises and to limit their potential damage, not to predict the timing of crises. Second, coverage is fairly comprehensive, including both advanced and emerging economies. Third, the EWE is based on rigorous analysis and cutting-edge techniques, but it uses a holistic approach, drawing also various other tools rather than relying on a single crisis model. Fourth, it combines empirical analysis with forward-looking thinking, based on inputs from key policymakers and academics, in-depth real-world knowledge from practitioners, and seasoned judgment from IMF experts. The primary purpose of the EWE is to identify as early as possible the buildup of underlying vulnerabilities that predispose a system to a crisis, so that corrective policies can be implemented and contingency plans put in place.
Keywords:
PP; financial market; risk; country risk; IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise; EWE methodology; financial crisis; business cycle; global economy; EWE framework; EWE tool; IMF mission; EWE analysis; EWE toolkit; risk premium; Early warning systems; Housing prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Asset bubbles; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices
Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart
,
Miguel A. Segoviano
, and
Boris Hofmann
This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper explores a range of financial and real variables that explain such PoDs across time. We find property price fluctuations and bank credit to be important explanatory factors. There is two-way interaction between these variables and a clearer relationship when the variables are entered as a deviation from trend. The lag structure between such developments and PoDs is long and varies widely across countries. The paper assesses the implications of these findings for economic policy.
Keywords:
WP; asset price; price bubble; property price; bank lending; Probability of default; credit risk; systemic risk; macroeconomic shocks; stress testing; financial surveillance; price variable; property boom; asset gap variable; asset price dynamics; asset price shock; asset price fluctuation; asset price surge; equity price; assets decrease; short interest; bank PoDs; asset price gap; Asset prices; Bank credit; Land prices; Credit; Financial statistics; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis
Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji
and
Mr. Charles Collyns
This paper examines the link between lending booms, asset price cycles, and financial crises across East Asian countries. Both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence support a strong relationship between bank lending and asset price inflation, especially in the real estate market. While asset price bubbles were present in most Asian countries during the 1990s, their subsequent bust has affected countries quite differently. Some countries underwent severe exchange and financial crises, while others were able to weather the storm with much less damage. This experience underlines the importance of a strong bank regulatory system.
Keywords:
WP; price index; property price; asset price bubbles; financial market; exchange market crisis; rate of return; Lending Booms; Real Estate Bubbles; Asia Crisis; property market; adverse selection; Land prices; Real estate prices; Asset prices; Asset bubbles; Credit; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Real Estate Market Developments and Financal Sector Soundness
Mr. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers
,
Ms. Lisbeth S Zacho
, and
Mr. Qin Lei
This paper analyses the characteristics and functioning of real estate markets. It focuses on the relationship between developments in these markets and the financial sector to determine under what circumstances real estate booms and busts can develop and how they can affect the health and stability of the financial system. It concludes that unbalanced real estate price developments often contribute to financial sector distress and that trends in real estate markets should be monitored closely in the context of financial sector assessments.
Keywords:
WP; real estate; property price; price development; determination process; prices fall; stock price; financial sector; financial crises; price fall; Real estate prices; Land prices; Commercial banks; Credit; Asia and Pacific