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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Synergies Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies in Thailand
Ichiro Fukunaga
and
Manrique Saenz
A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to the Thai economy is used to explore the performance of alternative monetary and macroprudential policy rules when faced with shocks that directly impact the financial cycle. In this context, the model shows that a monetary policy focused on its traditional inflation and output objectives accompanied by a well targeted counter-cyclical macroprudential policy yields better macroeconomic outcomes than a lean-against-the-wind monetary policy rule under a wide range of assumptions.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; loan; Taylor; housing loan; x inflation gap; Macroprudential policies; Lean-against-the-wind monetary policy rule; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model; Thailand; world interest rate; LTV rule; household LTV cap; Macroprudential policy instruments; Macroprudential policy; Financial sector stability; Housing; Inflation; monetary policy transmission; inflation stability; inflation gap; world interest rate shock
Cover Policy Papers
ASEAN Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goals and The Role of the IMF
International Monetary Fund
Attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will require that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries continue their considerable past achievements. The Millennium Development Goals—which were to have been met by 2015—helped focus attention on achieving progress towards poverty reduction, better health outcomes, and improvements in education in the ASEAN developing countries. The 17 SDGs—adopted in 2015 and to be met by 2030—cover a wider set of interlinked development objectives, such as inclusion and environmental sustainability, which are important for all countries, including all ASEAN member countries. ASEAN countries have made significant progress in improving incomes and economic opportunities, including for women, and reducing poverty since 2000. Reflecting the economic dynamism of the region, strong income growth, structural transformation, and infrastructure improvements continue to support sustainable development in ASEAN. With continued income growth and strong policy efforts, most ASEAN countries are on track to eradicate absolute poverty by 2030, a major milestone. Also, several ASEAN countries already do relatively well in terms of gender equality. As a result, given support from continued income gains, economic welfare in ASEAN countries is expected to continue converging towards advanced Asia levels. Ensuring more inclusive and environmentally sustainable growth presents a key challenge for ASEAN. Despite some progress, income inequality remains relatively high in several countries and the shift towards manufacturing strains environmental sustainability. These challenges hamper ASEAN welfare convergence relative to advanced Asia. Policies to close these gaps in sustainable development can lead to significant gains. For the lower-middle-income ASEAN countries, in particular, more determined policy efforts are needed to improve infrastructure, as well as health and education outcomes. Remaining sustainable development challenges call for comprehensive, country-specific SDG strategies formulated in the context of national development plans and close monitoring through the voluntary review process. Pursuing sustainable development entails sizeable spending needs. Estimates for Indonesia and Vietnam, the two cases studies considered in this paper, show that reaching the level of best performers in their income group in infrastructure, health, and education by 2030 could entail an additional cost of 5½–6½ percent of GDP per year. While development needs vary across countries, estimates suggest large spending needs for most ASEAN countries. Meeting them will require efforts on multiple fronts, including improvements in spending efficiency, tax capacity, and support from the private sector. For developing ASEAN countries, concessional financing from development partners will be required. The IMF continues to engage ASEAN countries in key areas as they pursue their SDGs. As called for in their mandates, ASEAN and the IMF both strive for economic growth and sustainable development through economic integration and collaboration among their member countries. The IMF has increased its engagement with ASEAN countries to support their policy efforts through its policy diagnostics, advice, and capacity development. ASEAN countries have also received support through IMF initiatives in strengthening revenue mobilization, building state capacity for infrastructure provision, pursuing economic and financial inclusion, addressing the challenges of climate change, strengthening economic institutions for good governance, and building statistical capacity. While fundamental reforms to improve sustainable development take time to bear fruit, there is evidence that efforts have started to pay off.
Keywords:
PP; member country; public spending; absolute poverty; SDG implementation; IMF staff estimate; ASEAN country; ASEAN member; private sector; ASEAN cooperation; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Sustainable development; Infrastructure; Asia and Pacific; Global; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper examines the impact of key structural fiscal reforms on growth and other macro variables in Thailand. The study simulates the impact of: a public infrastructure push; labor market policies, including an increase in the pensionable age and in provision of childcare services; and a change in the composition of taxes from income taxes to value added tax to shed light on the desired composition of additional taxes to be levied in the longer term. The results indicate that structural reforms enabling higher infrastructure investment, stronger labor participation, and more efficient taxation can raise growth significantly and contribute to addressing domestic and external imbalances.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial condition; ASEAN economy; rule; loan; portfolio investment; monetary policy transmission mechanism; retirement age; inflation objective; infrastructure investment; Financial integration; Macroprudential policy; Macroprudential policy instruments; Financial sector stability; Regional integration; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on various challenges and opportunities related to reaping Indonesia’s demographic dividend. Demographic trends can impact growth through various channels. These include the size of the labor force, productivity, and capital formation. Indonesia’s growth is set to have a sizeable tailwind from demographic trends. The paper suggests that Indonesia should seize the window of opportunity to reap the demographic dividend, as aging is projected to start kicking in less than 15 years. In the long-term, Indonesia can grow old before becoming rich. The rapid speed of aging implies that Indonesia, similar to many Asian economies, may face the prospect of becoming old before becoming rich. Given Indonesia’s favorable demographic trends, policies should focus first on maximizing the demographic dividend. Reaping the demographic dividend requires appropriate policies to raise productivity and create enough quality jobs for the growing working-age population. Investing in human capital early on, including education and health care, is essential to improve the productivity of the workforce and increase the size of the demographic dividend.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Indonesia; IMF staff estimate; VAT; workforce; export; VAT threshold; financial market; workforce training; old-age dependency ratio; population share; equity-enhancing priority expenditure; export destination; growth strategy; Exports; Capital markets; Infrastructure; Aging; Financial inclusion; Global; Asia and Pacific; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses recent developments, outlook and risk, and policies required for a long-lasting recovery of Thailand’s economy. Thailand remains resilient in the face of external and internal challenges. However, political uncertainty and structural bottlenecks cloud long-term prospects. The economy recovered in 2015 after a slowdown induced by political uncertainty. Public investment supported economic activity, particularly through community-based infrastructure projects. Monetary policy was eased in the face of below-target inflation. The credit cycle moderated, but household debt reached a historic high. Implementing high-quality fiscal stimulus, easing monetary policy, and safeguarding financial sector stability can strengthen long-term sustainability, equity, and efficiency of Thailand’s economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline inflation; bond yield; core inflation; inflation expectation; government bond bond yield; policy space; Thai baht; policy issue; Inflation; Infrastructure; Exports; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Infrastructure and Income Distribution in ASEAN-5: What are the Links?
Ms. Yan M Sun
Adequate infrastructure has long been viewed as an important factor in economic development. Based on regressions covering 76 advanced and emerging market economies, this paper estimates the impact of infrastructure and investment on income distribution. It finds that better infrastructure, both quality and quantity, promotes income equality, while the link between investment and income distribution is weak.
Keywords:
WP; Gini coefficient; investment; ASEAN-5; quantity; emerging market economy; Gini index data; Infrastructure; Income Distribution; GINI; Inclusive Growth; investment variable; infrastructure quantity index; de-meaned Gini index; flood-prevention investment; income share; income equality; quality index; Income inequality; Income; Private investment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5
International Monetary Fund
This paper focuses on post-crisis fiscal priorities in the ASEAN-5 economies - Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Sound economic fundamentals and timely and forceful policy responses to the crisis, including fiscal stimulus, contributed to rapid economic recovery in the ASEAN-5. As growth rebounds, these economies are beginning to identify, communicate and implement their strategies for unwinding the fiscal stimulus while addressing long-term growth challenges. In this context, the paper highlights the need for fiscal policies to address infrastructure gaps, stimulate private consumption and expand social safety nets. Creating fiscal space to address these challenges will require raising revenues and reorienting public spending rather than increasing borrowing. Supporting structural reforms, aiming to stimulate private infrastructure investment, could help address long-term growth challenges, while easing the burden on fiscal policy.
Keywords:
WP; ASEAN-5; economy; Philippines; Indonesia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on Thailand reviews public investment and investment recovery from financial crises. Thailand is a country with a moderate tax effort, which indicates that increases in public saving should be achieved through a mixture of tax and expenditure measures. Future budgets should accommodate the megaprojects without putting excessive pressures on public finances, inflation, and the external balance. Least present value of revenue (LPVR) auctions alleviate the demand risk inherent in the fixed-term contracts and thus eliminate a key driver for renegotiations and the provision of minimum income guarantees.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; slump; growth; reform; growth prospect; chapter III; investment slump crisis; further reform; core challenge; investment ratio; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public investment spending; Infrastructure; Asia and Pacific; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 31, Issue 05
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Almost two months after the successful launch of euro notes and coins in the 12-member euro area, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Anne Krueger says Europe now needs to tackle outstanding economic reforms more forcefully to ensure that monetary union delivers on its promise. Speaking at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London on February 25, she refrained from commenting on the pros and cons of U.K. entry into the euro area but observed that a “strong and prosperous European economy is essential to a strong and prosperous world economy.” Edited excerpts from Krueger s speech follow. The full text can be found on the IMFs website (www.imf.org.)
Keywords:
SV; IMF team; IMF Concludes; IMF staff country report; IMF's website; IMF publication service; IMF staff country; IMF managing director name; Housing; Income; Income inequality; Mortgages; Income distribution; Asia and Pacific; Global; Europe; Middle East; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This report provides the IMF's projections and estimates on Thailand's expenditure on gross domestic product at current prices; balance of payments during 1995–2000; gross domestic product by industrial origin at current and constant prices during 1995–99; investment and savings at constant prices; gross domestic product at 1988 prices; selected energy prices; mining and agricultural productions during 1995–2001; central government fiscal accounts and revenue and grants; central government expenditure by economic classification,1995/96–1999/2000; summary of the central and local government tax system; financial and monetary surveys during 1996–2001, and so on.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; U.S. dollar; private sector; withholding tax; import duty; long-term debt; income tax; capital goods; gross income; consumer goods; Agricultural commodities; Transportation; Imports; Income; Oil; Mekong; Nonmonetary capital; International Monetary Fund Washington; d.c; publication policy; net medium; Commercial banks; Public sector