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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
fan chart; household debt; Thailand's debt ceiling; public debt debt ceiling; estimates of debt limits; Debt limits; Consumer credit; Loans; Consumer loans; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Medium-Scale DSGE Model for the Integrated Policy Framework
Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Vitor Gaspar
, and
Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper jointly analyzes the optimal conduct of monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy, and capital flow management. This policy analysis is based on an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy, featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages with endogenous risk, and diverse spillover transmission channels. In the pursuit of inflation and output stabilization objectives, it is optimal to adjust all policies in response to domestic and global financial cycle upturns and downturns when feasible—including foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management under some conditions—to widely varying degrees depending on the structural characteristics of the economy. The framework is applied empirically to four small open advanced and emerging market economies.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Foreign Exchange Intervention; Fiscal Policy; Macroprudential Policy; Capital Flow Management; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model; Small Open Economy; Policy transmission mechanisms; price inflation; scenario assumption; policy rule parameter; policy rule response coefficient; Mortgages; Consumption; Foreign exchange intervention; Inflation; Capital flow management; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
A nascent recovery is underway in Thailand following the COVID-19 downturn. Ample policy buffers, underpinned by judicious management of public finances, allowed the authorities to implement a multipronged package of fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to mitigate the COVID-19 impact on households, businesses, and the financial system. This, together with rigorous containment measures, led to a successful flattening of the infection curve during most of 2020. Nevertheless, the pandemic has taken a large toll on the economy, potentially inducing long-term scarring and increasing inequality.
Keywords:
vaccination plan; vaccine brand; pace of vaccination; Bank of Thailand 's Monetary Policy Committee; government's reopening plan; U.S. dollar; COVID-19; Trade balance; Tourism; Loans; Fiscal stimulus; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Indonesia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government bond bond yield; IMF staff estimate; loan growth; headline CPI inflation; government bond bond market; Sovereign bonds; Bond yields; Bonds; Inflation; Currency swaps; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Working Papers
External Financing Dependence and Corporate Saving in ASEAN5
Xin Li
Using firm-level data on ASEAN5, this paper studies the differential effects of macro-financial and structural factors on corporate saving behavior through the lens of external financing dependence. The finding suggests that non-financial corporations in ASEAN5 have been subject to binding financial constraints over the past two decades. Greater capital account openness or exchange rate depreciation reduces the average saving rate of industries with low dependence on external funds, while it increases the saving rate of industries with high dependence on external funds. The effects are greater for export-oriented industries. An improvement in banking sector competition, banks’ lending efficiency, or policy clarity is associated with lower saving rate of firms across the board.
Keywords:
ASEAN countries; corporate saving; external financing need; export-orientation; financial constraint; capital account openness; exchange rate depreciation.; WP; saving rate; high-tech company; Level analysis; tech firm; firm's use; precautionary saving theory; saving behavior; use of external finance; exchange rate depreciation; Financial sector development; Commercial banks; Capital flows; Currencies; Precautionary savings; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Capital Flow Data – A Guide for Empirical Analysis and Real-time Tracking
Mr. Robin Koepke
and
Simon Paetzold
This paper provides an analytical overview of the most widely used capital flow datasets. The paper is written as a guide for academics who embark on empirical research projects and for policymakers who need timely information on capital flow developments to inform their decisions. We address common misconceptions about capital flow data and discuss differences between high-frequency proxies for portfolio flows. In a nowcasting “horse race” we show that high-frequency proxies have significant predictive content for portfolio flows from the balance of payments (BoP). We also construct a new dataset for academic use, consisting of monthly portfolio flows broadly consistent with BoP data.
Keywords:
WP; flow data; portfolio flow; debt flow; flow proxy; IMF balance of payments statistic; portfolio flows; fund flows; balance of payments; coincident indicators; IIF data; IMF balance of payments data; Capital flows; Stocks; Balance of payments statistics; Flow of funds; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Africa; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Streamlining Procedures for Board Consideration of The Fund’s Emergency Financing During Exceptional Circumstances Involving A Pandemic
International Monetary Fund
The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted an unprecedented shock on the global economy and created an enormous demand for Fund resources. To accelerate processing and approval of members’ requests in such circumstances, the paper proposes measures to expedite Board consideration and approval of requests for purchases and/or disbursements under the Rapid Financing Instrument and/or the Rapid Credit Facility, respectively, completion of reviews and requests for changes in access in existing arrangements, and requests for assistance under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT), by shortening the circulation period for Board documents. The paper also proposes extending the use of the shortened circulation period to selected Article IV consultations necessary for use of Fund resources during a global pandemic. Management will also streamline internal procedures to accelerate program processing and reduce the burden on the Fund’s administrative capacity, and will seek the support of creditors to expedite the processing of financial transactions under COVID-19 emergency financing.
Keywords:
PP; pandemic; financing; emergency procedure; pandemic emergency procedures; RFI financing request; financing request; RFI request; emergency financing request; fund assistance; Emergency assistance; COVID-19; Lines of credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Risk Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This technical note on the risk assessment for Thailand discusses that the Thai banking system shows a substantial resilience to severe shocks. The solvency stress tests indicate that the largest banks can withstand an adverse scenario broadly as severe as the Asian financial crisis. While three banks would deplete their capital conservation buffer (CCB) under the adverse scenario, recapitalization needs would be minimal. A battery of complementary sensitivity stress tests, which allows to cover in more detail certain risk factors, also confirmed the overall picture of a resilient baking system: no particular vulnerability emerged from the analysis of the bond portfolio to an increase in government and corporate spreads, exposure to foreign exchange risk, and concentration risk in the loan portfolio, with the possible exception of one entity with a particular concentration on single-name exposures. The liquidity stress test on investment funds (IFs) showed that they would be able to withstand a severe redemption shock and its impact on the banks and the bond market would be limited.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; investment funds; central bank; fund family; liquid asset; fixed income; interest rate; mutual fund; banking sector; foreign exchange; sensitivity analysis; Stress testing; Mutual funds; Commercial banks; Currencies; Liquidity requirements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance-Basel Core Principles For Effective Banking Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Detailed Assessment of Observance on the Basel Core Principles (BCP) for effective banking supervision on Thailand highlights that there have been significant enhancements to the legal framework and the supervisory process since the last BCP review, resulting in high compliance. The commercial banking sector appears to be sound and stable with a diversified lending profile and a steady source of funding. The involvement of other ministerial authorities in Specialized Financial Institutions supervision may affect standard-setting processes and the mindset of key decision makers for commercial banks when trying to level regulatory standards. The supervisory framework and practices provide the foundation for the continued development of risk-based supervision. Notifications and examination manuals increasingly focus on analysis of qualitative factors such as governance, risk management and risk appetite statements to determine the bank’s composite rating. The report recommends that efficiency of enforcement actions would be increased by aligning Financial Institutions Business Act requirements and Bank of Thailand internal practices.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BOT supervisor; risk management; BOT notification No. FPG; senior management; risk profile; credit risk; parent company; business strategy; Trade balance; Market risk; Commercial banks; Stress testing; Operational risk; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Detailed Assessment of Observance-Insurance Core Principles
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Detailed Assessment of Observance on Insurance Core Principles on Thailand discusses that the government of Thailand has made a concerted effort to develop the insurance sector. The government has implemented a series of insurance development plans toward this end. Some significant regulatory and supervisory challenges remain, however, if Thailand is to continue to meet the pressures of a changing market and to continue to build the trust on which future growth depends. Consideration should be given to vesting more supervisory authority for key supervisory decisions with the Commission rather than with the Minister and Cabinet. Vesting authority with the Commission will help to ensure that the insurance supervisor has adequate powers to meet the objectives of insurance supervision. With respect to winding up and exit from the market, the insurance legislation should be amended to clearly establish a point at which it is no longer permissible for a troubled insurer to continue in business.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; risk management; state enterprise; corporate governance; insurance coverage; steering committee; board of directors; interest rate; risk assessment; credit risk; senior management; limited company; risk capital; independent auditor; cash flow; preference shares; Insurance companies; Insurance; Internal controls; Capital adequacy requirements; Auditing; Global