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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 31 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Caught in the Crosswinds: The Experiences of Selected Economies Responding to External Volatility with Multiple Policy Levers
Ms. Ghada Fayad
A case study approach is used to assess the multi-pronged policy response of seven small financially open economies with flexible exchange rate regimes to external shocks following the global financial crisis. FX intervention was frequently used— including during outflow episodes to prevent disorderly depreciation and preserve financial stability. Monetary policy often considered both financial and external stability. Capital flow management measures were sometimes calibrated symmetrically over the cycle while macroprudential measures were mostly deployed during inflow episodes. Assessment of the macroeconomic conditions paints an inconclusive picture on the benefits or costs of such policies, suggesting the need for further analysis.
Keywords:
emerging markets; monetary and exchange rate policies; inflation targeting; foreign exchange intervention; capital flows; macroprudential measures.; WP; monetary policy decision; exchange rate volatility; inflation targeting regime; monetary policy independence; FX turnover BIS data; macroprudential measures; inflation expectation; depreciation pressure; Inflation; Exchange rates; Financial sector stability; Depreciation; Central bank policy rate; Africa; Global
Cover Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential
Realizing Indonesia's Economic Potential
Mr. Luis E Breuer
,
Mr. Jaime Guajardo
, and
Mr. Tidiane Kinda

Abstract

Analytical work on Indonesian macroeconomic and financial issues, with an overarching theme on building institutions and policies for prosperity and inclusive growth. The book begins with a 20-year economic overview by former Finance Minister Chatib Basri, with subsequent chapters covering diverse sectors of the economy as well as Indonesia’s place in the global economy.

Keywords:
BOOK; Indonesia; government; economy; commodity; value-added tax; trade exposure; streamlining product market; commodity exporter; foreign currency; Exports; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Infrastructure; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Africa; output dynamics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
,
Mr. Jaewoo Lee
, and
Umang Rawat
Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; real interest rate; rate of interest; demographics; interest rates; capital account openness; world interest rate; interest rate adjustment; dependency ratio; real interest rate increase; adjustment to saving; interest rate environment; aging speed; Real interest rates; Aging; Demographic change; Long term interest rates; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Monetary Tightening: Emerging Markets Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Crises
Mr. Julio Escolano
,
Ms. Christina Kolerus
, and
Mr. Constant A Lonkeng Ngouana
This paper finds that tightening global financial conditions can worsen emerging economies’ public debt dynamics through an increasing interest rate-growth differential, particularly if coupled with high global risk aversion. Latin America and emerging Europe are the regions most likely to be adversely affected. In addition, historical evidence—analyzed by means of a Poisson count model—suggests that the frequency of sovereign debt crises increases in emerging economies at the early stage of U.S. monetary tightening cycles, at times in which the term spread also rises. The timing may be related to abrupt switches of expectations about the future course of policy in the early stages of tightening cycles.
Keywords:
WP; debt crisis; Debt dynamics; emerging markets; sovereign debt crisis; unconventional; EM interest rates; EMS Interest Rate Growth Differential; growth differential; non-resident debt; EM debt dynamics; debt fundamentals; Bond yields; Yield curve; Monetary tightening; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Countries’ Financial Inclusion Standing - A New Composite Index
Mr. Alexander Massara
and
André Mialou
This paper leverages the IMF’s Financial Access Survey (FAS) database to construct a new composite index of financial inclusion. The topic of financial inclusion has gathered significant attention in recent years. Various initiatives have been undertaken by central banks both in advanced and developing countries to promote financial inclusion. The issue has also attracted increasing interest from the international community with the G-20, IMF, and World Bank Group assuming an active role in developing and collecting financial inclusion data and promoting best practices to improve financial inclusion. There is general recognition among policy makers that financial inclusion plays a significant role in sustaining employment, economic growth, and financial stability. Nonetheless, the issue of its robust measurement is still outstanding. The new composite index uses factor analysis to derive a weighting methodology whose absence has been the most persistent of the criticisms of previous indices. Countries are then ranked based on the new composite index, providing an additional analytical tool which could be used for surveillance and policy purposes on a regular basis.
Keywords:
WP; income group; factor analysis; Financial inclusion; access and usage of financial services; index; borrowers variable; a number of variable; outreach variable; cross-dimension composite index; scale invariance; household depositor; composite index value; usage variable; normalized variable; geometric mean; Public expenditure review; Personal income; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2010 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund
The Thai economy has demonstrated its strength in its rapid rebound from the global crisis. But the loss of its former dynamism has slowed trend growth and left it largely dependent on exports. Executive Directors encourage an infrastructure-led growth strategy to make a difference to Thailand’s medium-term outlook. The significant obstacles to this strategy is that large infrastructure projects are particularly complex, with difficulties at the design, contracting, and implementation phases. An infrastructure-led growth strategy would also require budgetary resources and strengthening the medium-term fiscal framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy response; fiscal policy; stimulus package; fiscal policy space; sizeable fiscal policy; FSMP II; committee's decision; Exports; Central bank policy rate; Public sector; Credit; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Welfare Gains from Financial Liberalization
Mr. Kenichi Ueda
and
Robert M. Townsend
Financial liberalization has been a controversial issue as there is little empirical evidence for its positive effects on economic growth. However, we find sizable welfare gains, 1 to 28 percent of permanent consumption though, consistent with the literature, the gain in the economic growth is ambiguous, -0.2 to 0.7 percent. We apply a canonical growth model with endogenous financial deepening to Thailand, 1976-96. As effective bank transaction costs decline, more people take advantage of financial services. We estimate the gains by comparing model simulations under the historical episode of financial liberalization to those under a hypothetical continuation of financial repression.
Keywords:
WP; cost reduction; economic growth; financial system
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Integration in Asia: Recent Developments and Next Steps
Mr. Leslie E Teo
,
Mr. David Cowen
,
Mr. Hemant Shah
,
Mr. Ranil M Salgado
, and
Mr. Alessandro Zanello
This Working Paper brings together three papers prepared as background for discussions at the Second High-Level Conference on Asian Integration cohosted by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the IMF on May 25, 2006. The first documents recent trends in the intraregional flow of goods and capital and explores linkages between real and financial integration. The second focuses on the institutional and regulatory reforms needed to reap the benefits-and contain the risks-of financial integration in Asia. The third considers the implications of economic integration for the choice of the exchange rate regime and the conduct of macroeconomic policies.
Keywords:
WP; trade; financial market; Asia; bank; China; exchange rate system; market infrastructure; portfolio assets; participants trading; intra-Asia trade; integration in Asia; trade openness; Financial integration; Exchange rates; Capital markets; Currencies; Asia and Pacific; Global; North America; East Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Cambodia: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Cambodia; U.S. dollar; bank; deposit; Cambodia fanners bank; gross investment; Cambodia Samart communication; Money bank; Agroindustries; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural sector; Bank deposits; Asia and Pacific; Europe; Australia and New Zealand; Middle East; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Policies and Prospects in Japan and the Implications for the Asia-Pacific Region
Mr. Tim Callen
and
Warwick J. McKibbin
This paper uses the G-Cubed (Asia-Pacific) model-a macroeconomic model with rich cross-country links-to explore the implications for Japan and Asia of several shocks to the Japanese economy. The results suggest that, while fiscal consolidation in Japan would initially dampen domestic growth, over the medium term the impact on both the domestic and regional economies would be positive. Quantitative monetary easing in Japan would boost domestic activity in the short-run, while being basically neutral for the region. Finally, a loss of confidence in the yen would be negative for Japan, but positive for the region because of a reallocation of capital flows toward non-Japan Asia.
Keywords:
WP; Japan; real GDP; price; real interest rate; Asia-Pacific region; macroeconomic model; yen depreciation; equity price; role Japan; BoJ purchase; price effect; imports of machinery; depreciation of the yen; foreign direct investment; Real interest rates; Exports; Fiscal consolidation; Imports; Asia and Pacific; Europe