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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

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Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Develop and Implement a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework
Teresa R Curristine
,
Isabell Adenauer
,
Virginia Alonso-Albarran
,
John Grinyer
,
Koon Hui Tee
,
Claude P Wendling
, and
Delphine Moretti
This Note provides guidance on developing and implementing a medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF). MTFFs aim to promote fiscal discipline and sustainability, transparency, and better-informed fiscal decisions. An MTFF comprises a set of institutional arrangements for prioritizing, presenting, reporting, and managing fiscal aggregates - revenue, expenditure, balance, and debt - generally over a three-to-five-year period. It incorporates a fiscal strategy, medium-term projections of key macroeconomic variables and fiscal aggregates, and ceilings on total expenditure to guide subsequent annual budgets. By introducing a medium-term perspective into fiscal and budgetary decision making, MTFFs provide a clearer understanding of the impact, trade-offs, and risks of policy choices. MTFFs contribute to enhancing transparency and accountability by communicating the government’s medium-term fiscal goals, policies, and fiscal performance. Ultimately, clarity on medium-term fiscal plans and on their effective implementation can bolster confidence in the government’s ability to manage its finances prudently and competently. In addition to providing guidance on how to design an MTFF and the institutional and technical arrangements needed to support implementation, the Note discusses key challenges and presents country examples from across the globe by income group and concludes with lessons learned.
Keywords:
fiscal frameworks; fiscal planning; budget cycles; MTFF; medium-term fiscal framework; emerging market economy country example; MTFF specification; koon hui tee; MTFF projection Tool; MTFF time horizon; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Fiscal risks; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
Operational Guidance Note for IMF Engagement on Social Spending Issues
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
and
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This note provides general guidance on the operationalization of the strategy for IMF engagement on social spending. Social spending plays a critical role as a key lever for promoting inclusive growth, addressing inequality, protecting vulnerable groups during structural change and adjustment, smoothing consumption over the lifecycle, and stabilizing demand during economic shocks. Social spending policies have also been playing an important role in tackling the structural challenges associated with demographic shifts, gender inequality, technological advances, and climate change. This note builds on a series of notes on IMF engagement on specific social spending issues since the publication of the 2019 strategy paper and provides operational guidance on when and how to engage on social spending issues, in the context of surveillance, IMF-supported programs, and capacity development.
Keywords:
social spending; spending adequacy; spending efficiency; fiscal sustainability; social spending conditionality; social spending floor; social safety nets; education; health; pensions.; spending issue; transparency policy; I. social spending data; IMF capacity development; Health care spending; Education spending; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Lao People’s Democratic Republic: Technical Assistance Report on Government Finance Statistics Mission (October 4-29, 2021)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This paper presents Lao People’s Democratic Republic’s Technical Assistance report on government finance statistics (GFS) mission. There has been a progress on a gradual basis in the timeliness of GFS compilation and dissemination to the IMF due to an improvement in coordination between the Fiscal Policy and Law Department and data providers on the provision of source data, but these data are still not reconciled in a more regular and timelier basis. Monthly budget execution data which is used for GFS compilation, such as other allowances and subsidies in expenditure in particular, are aggregated and prepared according to source data from the data providers. The Annual budget for FY2022 including fiscal package including fiscal measures for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic response was submitted to the National Assembly in Nov/Dec 2021. The report recommends to coordinate with relevant departments including the Budget Department in the reporting system and/or the Inter-ministerial Committee to collect data for COVID-19 related spending for tracing and monitoring the spending.
Keywords:
IMF capacity development office; PSDS data compilation; IMF's Statistics Department; execution data; data dissemination to IMF; Government finance statistics; Budget execution and treasury management; Capital spending
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Côte d’Ivoire: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
growth spell; governance FRAMEWORK; efficiency gain; world governance indicator; growth episode; Health care spending; Education spending; Public investment spending; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Côte d’Ivoire: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
growth spell; governance FRAMEWORK; efficiency gain; world governance indicator; growth episode; Health care spending; Education spending; Public investment spending; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring Social Unrest Using Media Reports
Mr. Philip Barrett
,
Maximiliano Appendino
,
Kate Nguyen
, and
Jorge de Leon Miranda
We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. Spikes in the index identify major events, which correspond very closely to event timelines from external sources for four major regional waves of social unrest. We show that the cross-sectional distribution of the index can be simply and precisely characterized, and that social unrest is associated with a 3 percentage point increase in the frequency of social unrest domestically and a 1 percent increase in neighbors in the next six months. Despite this, social unrest is not a better predictor of future social unrest than the country average rate.
Keywords:
WP; Arabic language; appendix E; political science; Social Unrest; Protest; Media; unrest events; RSUI event coding; terms OR; RSUI index; country-horizon pair; statistical analysis; RSUI data; Public expenditure review; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that a cyclical recovery is under way in Thailand but has yet to become broad based. GDP growth is estimated at 3.9 percent in 2017, boosted by strong tourism services and manufacturing exports. Domestic demand remained sluggish amid structural challenges, and export gains failed to trickle down to household incomes and investments in other sectors. Headline inflation averaged 0.7 percent, below the target band for the third year in a row, reflecting low food prices and weak core inflation. The current account surplus remained large, at about 10.6 percent of GDP. Financial system stability continued to strengthen. The growth momentum is expected to continue in 2018 and 2019, supported by sustained export dynamism.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; headline inflation; inflation expectation; core inflation; economy; U.S. dollar; implementation capacity; inflation dynamics; Public investment spending; Financial sector stability; Inflation; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Inflation targeting; Global; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does Taxation Stifle Corporate Investment? Firm-Level Evidence from ASEAN Countries
Mr. Serhan Cevik
and
Fedor Miryugin
This paper conducts a firm-level analysis of the effect of taxation on corporate investment patterns in member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Using large-scale panel data on nonfinancial firms over the period 1990–2014, and controlling for macro-structural differences among countries, we find a significant degree of persistence in firms’ net fixed investments over time, which vary with firm characteristics, such as size, sales, profitability, leverage, and age. Our analysis brings up interesting empirical results, including nonlinear patterns of behavior in firms’ capital investment decisions acrosss ASEAN countries. Concerning the main variable of interest, we find that a moderate level of taxation does not hinder business investment, but this effect turns negative as higher tax burden raises the user cost of capital and distorts resource allocations.
Keywords:
WP; firm characteristic; investment behavior; firm level; nonfinancial firm; Corporate income tax; investment; leverage; firm performance; fixed investment; cost of capital; Capital spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Tax incidence; Private investment; Global; Southeast Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses selected issues related to the economy of Thailand. The economy of Thailand is largely dependent on China. A 1 percent decline in China’s GDP lowers Thailand’s output by about 0.2 percent. Population aging is another major issue in Thailand. This Association of Southeast Asian Nations country will face the dual challenge of increasing the coverage of the social security system and ensuring its long-term sustainability. Thailand’s financial sector has expanded rapidly over the last decade, and important changes in its structure have taken place. While corporate debt has remained broadly stable, household debt has increased to one of the highest levels among emerging markets, raising concerns about household debt overhang.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Thailand; China; GDP; Other Asean-5 Countries; household debt; China shock; dependency ratio; public health expenditure; wage cap; employees of state enterprises; Pensions; Pension spending; Aging; Exports; Commercial banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing Countries’ Financial Inclusion Standing - A New Composite Index
Mr. Alexander Massara
and
André Mialou
This paper leverages the IMF’s Financial Access Survey (FAS) database to construct a new composite index of financial inclusion. The topic of financial inclusion has gathered significant attention in recent years. Various initiatives have been undertaken by central banks both in advanced and developing countries to promote financial inclusion. The issue has also attracted increasing interest from the international community with the G-20, IMF, and World Bank Group assuming an active role in developing and collecting financial inclusion data and promoting best practices to improve financial inclusion. There is general recognition among policy makers that financial inclusion plays a significant role in sustaining employment, economic growth, and financial stability. Nonetheless, the issue of its robust measurement is still outstanding. The new composite index uses factor analysis to derive a weighting methodology whose absence has been the most persistent of the criticisms of previous indices. Countries are then ranked based on the new composite index, providing an additional analytical tool which could be used for surveillance and policy purposes on a regular basis.
Keywords:
WP; income group; factor analysis; Financial inclusion; access and usage of financial services; index; borrowers variable; a number of variable; outreach variable; cross-dimension composite index; scale invariance; household depositor; composite index value; usage variable; normalized variable; geometric mean; Public expenditure review; Personal income; Commercial banks; Global