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Asia and Pacific > Thailand

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 152 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Thailand’s cyclical recovery is underway, though it has yet to become broad-based. Growth is projected to accelerate moderately, reaching 2.7 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025, supported by the rebound of tourism-related activities and fiscal stimulus. The slow recovery, weaker than in ASEAN peers, is rooted in Thailand’s longstanding structural weaknesses and emerging headwinds that also contribute to a muted inflation trajectory. Significant uncertainty in the external environment and downside risks cloud the outlook.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; inflationtargeting monetary policy framework; supply and use tables; monetary policy analysis; Thai baht; Trade balance; Inflation; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
fan chart; household debt; Thailand's debt ceiling; public debt debt ceiling; estimates of debt limits; Debt limits; Consumer credit; Loans; Consumer loans; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF How To Notes
How to Develop and Implement a Medium-Term Fiscal Framework
Teresa R Curristine
,
Isabell Adenauer
,
Virginia Alonso-Albarran
,
John Grinyer
,
Koon Hui Tee
,
Claude P Wendling
, and
Delphine Moretti
This Note provides guidance on developing and implementing a medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF). MTFFs aim to promote fiscal discipline and sustainability, transparency, and better-informed fiscal decisions. An MTFF comprises a set of institutional arrangements for prioritizing, presenting, reporting, and managing fiscal aggregates - revenue, expenditure, balance, and debt - generally over a three-to-five-year period. It incorporates a fiscal strategy, medium-term projections of key macroeconomic variables and fiscal aggregates, and ceilings on total expenditure to guide subsequent annual budgets. By introducing a medium-term perspective into fiscal and budgetary decision making, MTFFs provide a clearer understanding of the impact, trade-offs, and risks of policy choices. MTFFs contribute to enhancing transparency and accountability by communicating the government’s medium-term fiscal goals, policies, and fiscal performance. Ultimately, clarity on medium-term fiscal plans and on their effective implementation can bolster confidence in the government’s ability to manage its finances prudently and competently. In addition to providing guidance on how to design an MTFF and the institutional and technical arrangements needed to support implementation, the Note discusses key challenges and presents country examples from across the globe by income group and concludes with lessons learned.
Keywords:
fiscal frameworks; fiscal planning; budget cycles; MTFF; medium-term fiscal framework; emerging market economy country example; MTFF specification; koon hui tee; MTFF projection Tool; MTFF time horizon; Budget planning and preparation; Fiscal rules; Fiscal risks; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
Operational Guidance Note for IMF Engagement on Social Spending Issues
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
and
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This note provides general guidance on the operationalization of the strategy for IMF engagement on social spending. Social spending plays a critical role as a key lever for promoting inclusive growth, addressing inequality, protecting vulnerable groups during structural change and adjustment, smoothing consumption over the lifecycle, and stabilizing demand during economic shocks. Social spending policies have also been playing an important role in tackling the structural challenges associated with demographic shifts, gender inequality, technological advances, and climate change. This note builds on a series of notes on IMF engagement on specific social spending issues since the publication of the 2019 strategy paper and provides operational guidance on when and how to engage on social spending issues, in the context of surveillance, IMF-supported programs, and capacity development.
Keywords:
social spending; spending adequacy; spending efficiency; fiscal sustainability; social spending conditionality; social spending floor; social safety nets; education; health; pensions.; spending issue; transparency policy; I. social spending data; IMF capacity development; Health care spending; Education spending; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sectoral Debt and Global Dollar Cycles in Developing Economies
Bada Han
,
Rashad Ahmed
,
Joshua Aizenman
, and
Yothin Jinjarak
We explore the role of sectoral debt dynamics in shaping business cycles in a sample of 52 Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Frontier Market Economies (FMEs) from 2005 to 2021. Higher household debt levels and growth are associated with significantly slower GDP growth in more developed EMEs but not in less developed EMEs and FMEs. We also examine the relationship between US dollar cycles, sectoral debt levels and growth, and economic activity. Among developed EMEs, higher expected household debt growth magnifies the impact of US dollar fluctuations on economic activity, with significant but less persistent effects on consumption and more persistent effects on investment. Our empirical findings highlight the important role of household debt dynamics in relatively developed EMEs.
Keywords:
Sectoral Debt; Household Debt; Dollar Cycle; Emerging Markets; debt growth; household debt growth; debt level; appreciation shock; debt cycle; Business cycles; Consumption; Income; Global
Cover IMF How To Notes
How To Design Excise Taxes on Alcoholic Beverages
Mario Mansour
,
Patrick Petit
, and
Fayçal Sawadogo
This How to Note examines the complex interplay between excise taxes on alcohol and alcoholic beverages, their revenue yield, and the public health concerns related to alcohol consumption. The note suggests guidance on how countries can approach the design of excise taxes on alcohol based on theoretical principles as well as empirical evidence drawn from international experience. Key questions addressed include: How important is alcohol consumption, and what form does it take across countries of different income levels? What has been the trend in alcohol excise tax revenue? How can countries design simple excise regimes that yield revenue while having the potential to contribute to reducing the externalities and internalities caused by alcohol consumption?
Keywords:
excise taxes; alcohol consumption; public health; alcohol excise tax system; publication order; transaction arbitrage; alcohol content; Excises; Consumption; Alcohol tax; Global; Europe; Central Asia; North America; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
pricing scheme; allowance price volatility; climate policy assessment tool; GHG emissions projection; burden of carbon pricing; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Value-added tax; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Multi-Currency Exchange and Contracting Platform
Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Federico Grinberg
,
Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli
,
Robert M. Townsend
, and
Nicolas Zhang
Cross-border payments can be slow, expensive, and risky. They are intermediated by counterparties in different jurisdictions which rely on costly trusted relationships to offset the lack of a common settlement asset as well as common rules and governance. In this paper, we present a vision for a multilateral platform that could improve cross-border payments, as well as related foreign exchange transactions, risk sharing, and more generally, financial contracting. The approach is to leverage technological innovations for public policy objectives. A common ledger, smart contracts, and encryption offer significant gains to market efficiency, completeness, and access, as well as to transparency, transaction and compliance costs, and safety. This paper is a first step aiming to stimulate further work in this space.
Keywords:
Cross-border payments; multilateral platforms; digital money; CBDC; programmability; encryption; exchange-market illiquidity; risk sharing; market design; hedging risk; cross-border payment; Smart contracts; Currencies; Currency markets; Financial statements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
export sophistication; insolvency regime; NDC roadmap; emissions trend; resource reallocation; Greenhouse gas emissions; Debt restructuring; Solvency; Carbon tax; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Thailand: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Thailand
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Thailand’s economy is recovering from an unprecedented crisis emanating from multiple waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ample policy space has allowed a swift and bold policy response and vaccine rollout has accelerated. However, the recovery is weak and uneven across sectors, with inflation rapidly rising driven by energy prices. Downside risks dominate the outlook, sharpening policy tradeoffs. The pandemic has also brought to the fore the urgency for Thailand to identify new growth drivers to reverse the pre-pandemic trend of declining productivity growth and meet the challenges of the post-pandemic world.
Keywords:
net portfolio inflow; inflation expectation; Medium-term government bond bond yield; inflation dynamics; monetary policy committee meeting; Inflation; Trade balance; COVID-19; Fiscal stance; Global