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Africa > Chad

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Economic Consequences of Large Extraction Declines: Lessons for the Green Transition
Mr. Rudolfs Bems, Lukas Boehnert, Mr. Andrea Pescatori, and Martin Stuermer
Limiting climate change requires a 80 percent reduction in fossil fuel extraction until 2050. What are the macroeconomic consequences for fossil fuel producing countries? We identify 35 episodes of persistent, exogenous declines in extraction based on a new data-set for 13 minerals (oil, gas, coal, metals) and 122 countries since 1950. We use local projections to estimate effects on real output as well as the external and the domestic sectors. Declines in extractive activity lead to persistent negative effects on real GDP and the trade balance. The real exchange rate depreciates but not enough to offset the decline in net exports. Effects on low-income countries are significantly larger than on high-income countries. Results suggest that legacy effects of bad institutions could prevent countries from benefiting from lower resource extraction.
Keywords:
Resource-rich countries; energy transition; fossil fuels; macroeconomics; development; climate policies; legacy effect; limiting climate change; commodity price data; aggregate output; interaction term; low income; real GDP response; open economy; Mining sector; Non-renewable resources; Consumption; Manufacturing; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chad: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Growth was weaker than expected in 2021, reflecting primarily production disruptions in the oil sector, while inflation remained subdued. The poor 2021/2022 crop year, severe floods and Russia’s war in Ukraine have exacerbated food insecurity and increased inflation in 2022. Security and social conditions remain difficult, while the political transition has suffered significant delays.
Keywords:
Chadian authorities; priority investment project; draft budget law; procurement contract; poverty reduction agenda; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chad: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Growth was weaker than expected in 2021, reflecting primarily production disruptions in the oil sector, while inflation remained subdued. The poor 2021/2022 crop year, severe floods and Russia’s war in Ukraine have exacerbated food insecurity and increased inflation in 2022. Security and social conditions remain difficult, while the political transition has suffered significant delays.
Keywords:
Chadian authorities; priority investment project; draft budget law; procurement contract; poverty reduction agenda; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Staff Report on the Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director