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Western Hemisphere > Suriname

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
C. labor market indicator; I. monetary policy framework; labor market outcome; Suriname mineral health; IMF's transparency policy; Gender inequality; Fiscal rules; Monetary policy frameworks; Women; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. The authorities’ strong policy and efforts to stabilize the economy are yielding positive results: the economy is growing, inflation is on a steady downward trend, and investor confidence is returning. Suriname is implementing an ambitious economic reform agenda aimed at restoring fiscal and debt sustainability through fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring, protecting the vulnerable by expanding social protection, upgrading the monetary and exchange rate policy framework, addressing banking sector vulnerabilities, and advancing the anti-corruption and governance agenda. Monetary policy is supporting disinflation. The authorities’ demonstrated commitment to flexible, market-determined exchange rate is supporting international reserves accumulation. Finalization of the central bank recapitalization plan will help further strengthen its operational independence and financial autonomy. Building on the progress made thus far under the program, continued efforts are needed to entrench fiscal discipline, while protecting the poor and vulnerable, and further strengthen institutions and address governance weaknesses.
Keywords:
FX trading platform; address governance weakness; Policy outlook; Surinamese authorities; banking sector vulnerability; governance agenda; policy reform; State oil company; government T-bill exposure; Arrears; Energy subsidies; Domestic debt; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility. The authorities’ commitment to macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline under the program is starting to bear fruit. The economy is stabilizing as exchange rate pressures have eased and inflation, while still high, is on a downward trend. The authorities’ main near-term policy priority is to maintain fiscal prudence while protecting the most vulnerable and supporting growth-enhancing investment. Decisive fiscal adjustment is putting debt on a firm downward trajectory even as expenditures to protect the vulnerable are being prioritized. Monetary and fiscal restraints are easing pressures on the exchange rate, but inflation has yet to move decisively lower. Efforts are underway to broaden the tax base, increase spending efficiency, improve governance, and address longstanding vulnerabilities in the financial system. The authorities have enacted an amendment to increase value added tax revenues and have finalized a framework to assess banks’ recapitalization and restructuring plans.
Keywords:
end-December QPC; staff appraisal; near-term policy priority; governance reform; Surinamese authorities; Arrears; Inflation; Debt restructuring; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Macro-Fiscal Forecasting
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This technical assistance report on Suriname highlights medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting (MTFF). The Economic Affairs Department (EAD) recognizes the desirability of creating a new medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting framework. Existing technical capacity relating to forecasting among most EAD staff is at a basic level. Training, through hands-on exercises using Surinamese data, will play an important role in supporting the development and ultimate adoption of the MTFF. There are several risks to the project’s success, including regarding data quality and availability, as well as competing demands on EAD staff time. Limited data and weak relationships between predictors (economic activity) and fiscal variables would limit the forecast accuracy of the MTFF, though it would still allow for more rigorous and transparent projections than is current practice. Regarding staff time, it is understood that EAD staff have a strong interest in the development and usage of an MTFF, hopefully ensuring sufficient time by a core group of persons is devoted to receiving technical assistance support to develop the tool.
Keywords:
EAD staff; staff time; Suriname debt management office; EAD forecast; MFP staff; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Revenue forecasting; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On December 22, 2021, the IMF Executive Board approved a 36-month arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with access of 366.8 percent of quota (SDR 472.8 million or USD 673 million). The Surinamese authorities’ homegrown economic recovery plan aims to address systemic fiscal and external imbalances and chart a course toward debt sustainability, declining inflation, and economic recovery while maintaining social stability. In the first few months of the program, the authorities have made good progress but important risks remain.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; staff representative; Surinamese authorities; RMT regime; rising prices; Arrears; Monetary base; Exchange rates; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring the Redistributive Capacity of Tax Policies
Charles Vellutini
and
Juan Carlos Benitez
This paper presents a novel technique to measure and compare the redistributive capacity of observed tax (or transfer) policies. The technique is based on income distribution simulations and controls for differences in pre-tax income distributions. It assumes that the only information on the pre-tax distribution available in each country-year is the Gini coefficient and the mean (GDP per capita). We illustrate the technique with an application to the personal income tax, using a dataset of 108 countries over the 2007-2018 period.
Keywords:
Income distribution; redistribution; progressivity; personal income tax; novel technique; PIT redistribution; TRANSPLANT-AND-COMPARE method; PIT Progressive; market income Gini Coefficients; Income distribution; Income; Personal income tax; Progressive taxation; Income inequality; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Suriname analyzes exchange rate pass through in Suriname. While the previous studies exclusively focused on the bilateral exchange rate against the US dollar, this study, in addition, estimates exchange rate passthrough using the nominal effective exchange rate. This is crucial given the strong presence of euros in the economy due to its historic connections with the Netherlands and French Guyana being one of its neighbors. The study is the first to investigate how various subcomponents of consumer price index respond to exchange rate variations differently for Suriname. The results suggest a cumulative exchange rate passthrough of around 0.4 (0.6) over six months and 0.6 (0.7) over one year for the entire sample of 1980-2019 (2000-19). A more systemic analysis suggests that the exchange rate passthrough has been declining and becoming more short-lived in recent years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; rate; market; exchange rate granger; market rate; U.S. dollar exchange rate; Suriname dollarization; estimates Exchange rate passthrough; auction rate; exchange rate restriction; fuel rate; exchange rate depreciation; exchange rate movement; market participant; Exchange rate passthrough in Suriname; Exchange rates; Dollarization; Consumer price indexes; Inflation; Nominal effective exchange rate; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Suriname discusses that Suriname continues to grow steadily with low inflation. However, there has been little progress in implementing urgently needed fiscal reforms, and the fiscal position is likely to continue to weaken in the coming year. The consultation focused on policies to bolster the economy in the medium term. These include fiscal measures to enhance revenues and efficiency and lower expenditures, policies to improve the monetary and financial sector supervision frameworks, and structural policies to boost potential growth. Advances have been made in developing the central bank’s monetary tools and facilities; however, more is needed to strengthen the credibility of the monetary framework. The banking sector faces important downside risks and there are gaps in the central bank’s supervisory and resolution framework. It is advised to put the public debt on a sustainable path. A significant reduction in the fiscal deficit could be achieved by implementing a value-added tax, curtailing electricity subsidies except to the poor, and improving public financial management.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBvS; central bank; GDP; Suriname; Surinamese economy; supervision framework; foreign exchange; Suriname's economy; electricity sector subsidy; law amendment; paternity support; fiscal policy framework; CFT regime; Monetary base; International reserves; Currencies; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Caribbean; IMF's transparency policy; CPI data; External sector statistics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean
Mr. Serhan Cevik
and
Tianle Zhu
Monetary independence is at the core of the macroeconomic policy trilemma stating that an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital cannot exist at the same time. This study examines the relationship between monetary autonomy and inflation dynamics in a panel of Caribbean countries over the period 1980–2017. The empirical results show that monetary independence is a significant factor in determining inflation, even after controlling for macroeconomic developments. In other words, greater monetary policy independence, measured as a country’s ability to conduct its own monetary policy for domestic purposes independent of external monetary influences, leads to lower consumer price inflation. This relationship—robust to alternative specifications and estimation methodologies—has clear policy implications, especially for countries that maintain pegged exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar with a critical bearing on monetary autonomy.
Keywords:
WP; independence; country; inflation dynamics; Macroeconomic trilemma; monetary independence; exchange rate fexibility; inflation; consumer price inflation; inflation aversion; system GMM identification assumption; inflation in the Caribbean; dynamics in a group; GMM estimation; monetary policy autonomy; Monetary policy frameworks; Exchange rate arrangements; Conventional peg; Central bank autonomy; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Suriname is recovering from the deep recession of 2015-16. Growth has turned positive, inflation has reduced to single digits, real interest rates have turned positive, and the external position has on balance strengthened. Nonetheless, the economy remains heavily dependent on the mineral sector, and faces fiscal, monetary, and banking sector vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Suriname; IMF staff calculation; GDP; holding; Suriname's economy; monetary policy operation; government mining revenue; underdeveloped monetary policy framework; financial asset; monetary policy; Fiscal stance; Exchange rates; Monetary base; Caribbean; Europe; Asia and Pacific