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Western Hemisphere > Suriname

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. The authorities’ strong policy and efforts to stabilize the economy are yielding positive results: the economy is growing, inflation is on a steady downward trend, and investor confidence is returning. Suriname is implementing an ambitious economic reform agenda aimed at restoring fiscal and debt sustainability through fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring, protecting the vulnerable by expanding social protection, upgrading the monetary and exchange rate policy framework, addressing banking sector vulnerabilities, and advancing the anti-corruption and governance agenda. Monetary policy is supporting disinflation. The authorities’ demonstrated commitment to flexible, market-determined exchange rate is supporting international reserves accumulation. Finalization of the central bank recapitalization plan will help further strengthen its operational independence and financial autonomy. Building on the progress made thus far under the program, continued efforts are needed to entrench fiscal discipline, while protecting the poor and vulnerable, and further strengthen institutions and address governance weaknesses.
Keywords:
FX trading platform; address governance weakness; Policy outlook; Surinamese authorities; banking sector vulnerability; governance agenda; policy reform; State oil company; government T-bill exposure; Arrears; Energy subsidies; Domestic debt; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Third Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility. The authorities’ commitment to macroeconomic stability and fiscal discipline under the program is starting to bear fruit. The economy is stabilizing as exchange rate pressures have eased and inflation, while still high, is on a downward trend. The authorities’ main near-term policy priority is to maintain fiscal prudence while protecting the most vulnerable and supporting growth-enhancing investment. Decisive fiscal adjustment is putting debt on a firm downward trajectory even as expenditures to protect the vulnerable are being prioritized. Monetary and fiscal restraints are easing pressures on the exchange rate, but inflation has yet to move decisively lower. Efforts are underway to broaden the tax base, increase spending efficiency, improve governance, and address longstanding vulnerabilities in the financial system. The authorities have enacted an amendment to increase value added tax revenues and have finalized a framework to assess banks’ recapitalization and restructuring plans.
Keywords:
end-December QPC; staff appraisal; near-term policy priority; governance reform; Surinamese authorities; Arrears; Inflation; Debt restructuring; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Suriname analyzes exchange rate pass through in Suriname. While the previous studies exclusively focused on the bilateral exchange rate against the US dollar, this study, in addition, estimates exchange rate passthrough using the nominal effective exchange rate. This is crucial given the strong presence of euros in the economy due to its historic connections with the Netherlands and French Guyana being one of its neighbors. The study is the first to investigate how various subcomponents of consumer price index respond to exchange rate variations differently for Suriname. The results suggest a cumulative exchange rate passthrough of around 0.4 (0.6) over six months and 0.6 (0.7) over one year for the entire sample of 1980-2019 (2000-19). A more systemic analysis suggests that the exchange rate passthrough has been declining and becoming more short-lived in recent years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; rate; market; exchange rate granger; market rate; U.S. dollar exchange rate; Suriname dollarization; estimates Exchange rate passthrough; auction rate; exchange rate restriction; fuel rate; exchange rate depreciation; exchange rate movement; market participant; Exchange rate passthrough in Suriname; Exchange rates; Dollarization; Consumer price indexes; Inflation; Nominal effective exchange rate; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean
Mr. Serhan Cevik
and
Tianle Zhu
Monetary independence is at the core of the macroeconomic policy trilemma stating that an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital cannot exist at the same time. This study examines the relationship between monetary autonomy and inflation dynamics in a panel of Caribbean countries over the period 1980–2017. The empirical results show that monetary independence is a significant factor in determining inflation, even after controlling for macroeconomic developments. In other words, greater monetary policy independence, measured as a country’s ability to conduct its own monetary policy for domestic purposes independent of external monetary influences, leads to lower consumer price inflation. This relationship—robust to alternative specifications and estimation methodologies—has clear policy implications, especially for countries that maintain pegged exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar with a critical bearing on monetary autonomy.
Keywords:
WP; independence; country; inflation dynamics; Macroeconomic trilemma; monetary independence; exchange rate fexibility; inflation; consumer price inflation; inflation aversion; system GMM identification assumption; inflation in the Caribbean; dynamics in a group; GMM estimation; monetary policy autonomy; Monetary policy frameworks; Exchange rate arrangements; Conventional peg; Central bank autonomy; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean
Ms. Magda E. Kandil
The paper investigates asymmetry in the allocation of aggregate demand shocks between real output growth and price inflation over the business cycle in a sample of fifteen Caribbean countries. In most countries, the evidence indicates the existence of structural constraints, implying that positive demand shocks feed predominantly into prices while negative demand shocks mainly affect output. The high variability of aggregate demand in Caribbean countries, frequently exposed to shocks that are exacerbated by pro-cyclical policy stance, tends to create an upward bias on inflation and a downward bias on real output growth, on average, over time. The analysis highlights the benefits of eliminating structural rigidities responsible for asymmetric real and inflationary effects and points to the dangers of procyclical macroeconomic policies that exacerbate the adverse effects of demand variability.
Keywords:
WP; price inflation; demand variability; output growth; trend inflation; energy price; price rigidity; trade balance; Demand Shocks Asymmetric Effects Contractionary and Inflationary Biases; price uncertainty; price flexibility; output contraction; price inflation to expansionary demand shocks; product price; real growth; inflation bias; expansionary demand shock; inflation to expansionary demand shocks; Inflation; Exchange rates; Production growth; Sticky prices; Exchange rate arrangements; Caribbean
Cover Departmental Papers
Suriname: Toward Stability and Growth
Mr. Masahiro Nozaki
,
Mr. Tobias Roy
,
Mr. Pawel Dyczewski
,
Mr. Bernhard Fritz-Krockow
,
Ms. Fanny M Torres Gavela
,
Mr. Gamal Z El-Masry
, and
Mr. Rafael A Portillo
This paper analyzes the economic growth and stability in Suriname. The paper highlights that in recent years, the outlook has turned substantively more positive. The favorable external environment and the stability-oriented policies of the Venetian administration have boosted confidence in the economy, leading to increased investment, domestic economic activity, and employment. The recent boom in commodity prices has helped boost growth, while increased gold production and investment in the mineral industry are projected to support continued growth in the coming years.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; government; Suriname; exchange rate; company; foreign currency; central bank; U.S. dollar; monetary policy; interest rate; Exchange rates; Currencies; Inflation; Bank deposits; Gold; Caribbean; Global; South America; Western Hemisphere; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: 2008 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion for Suriname; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund
The key findings of Suriname’s 2008 Article IV Consultation show that a narrow economic base, terms-of-trade swings, and a weak policy/institutional framework have in the past led to macroeconomic instability. Weak policy and institutional frameworks have contributed to higher economic volatility and lower growth than in other commodity-exporting countries. These have undermined the credibility of policies and contributed to high financial dollarization, with over half of deposits denominated in foreign currency. Aided by high commodity prices and improved confidence, GDP growth is estimated at 5½ percent, with strong performance in both the mineral and nonmineral sectors.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Surinamese authorities; debt; IDB financing; terms of trade; price shock; GDP number; GDP ratio; Inflation; Public sector; Current account; Global
Cover Developments and Challenges in the Caribbean Region
Developments and Challenges in the Caribbean Region
Mr. Simon Cueva
,
Mr. Stephen Tokarick
,
Mr. Erik J. Lundback
,
Ms. Janet Gale Stotsky
, and
Mr. Samuel P. Itam

Abstract

This paper focuses on the independent states that are full members of the Caribbean Community. It provides background information on recent developments in the Caribbean region and lays out the principal policy issues that countries will need to address in the period ahead. The Caribbean countries face several common problems and must deal with similar economic policy issues. Consequently, concentrating on the regional perspective permits a comparison of the individual responses to similar problems. The regional view throws light on the countries' movement toward convergence. The economic prospects for the region are generally satisfactory over the medium term, but the projections depend importantly on the resolve of governments to pursue appropriate policies, as well as favorable developments in the rest of the world. The relatively favorable outlook for the region is not without risks, such as a slowdown in growth in the major trading partner countries or a term of trade shock.

Keywords:
OP; country; deficit; inflation differential; public sector deficit; Caribbean country; public sector wage bill; inflation in the OECS country; world commodity; Exports; Imports; Public sector; Trade facilitation; Inflation; Caribbean; North America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Suriname: A Case Study of High Inflation
Mr. Sukhdev Shah
and
Mr. Benedikt Braumann
Suriname recently went through a period of destabilizationthat that bordered on hyperinflation. The country’s experience provides a good illustration to study the genesis and dynamics of high inflation and includes some unusual phenomena, such as a monetary overhang, an eight-tiered exchange rate, and inflationary gold purchases by the central bank. High inflation also had a significant impact on the real economy. This paper compares the experience of Suriname with other countries discussed in the recent stabilization literature. It finds strong evidence of intertemporal demand effects, which occurred as the public reacted to the temporary bout of high inflation.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; price level; budget deficit; inflationary spiral; Inflation; monetary overhang; multiple exchange rates; non-neutralities; inflation act; Phillips curve; inflation period; excess supply; inflation rate; inflation result; Consumption; Real exchange rates; Government debt management; Real wages; Eastern Europe; Caribbean