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Western Hemisphere > Suriname

You are looking at 1 - 2 of 2 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Macro-Fiscal Forecasting
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This technical assistance report on Suriname highlights medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting (MTFF). The Economic Affairs Department (EAD) recognizes the desirability of creating a new medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting framework. Existing technical capacity relating to forecasting among most EAD staff is at a basic level. Training, through hands-on exercises using Surinamese data, will play an important role in supporting the development and ultimate adoption of the MTFF. There are several risks to the project’s success, including regarding data quality and availability, as well as competing demands on EAD staff time. Limited data and weak relationships between predictors (economic activity) and fiscal variables would limit the forecast accuracy of the MTFF, though it would still allow for more rigorous and transparent projections than is current practice. Regarding staff time, it is understood that EAD staff have a strong interest in the development and usage of an MTFF, hopefully ensuring sufficient time by a core group of persons is devoted to receiving technical assistance support to develop the tool.
Keywords:
EAD staff; staff time; Suriname debt management office; EAD forecast; MFP staff; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Revenue forecasting; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries: The Case of Suriname
Mr. Daniel S Kanda
and
Mr. Mario Mansilla
This paper first attempts to quantify the natural resource wealth of Suriname from the perspective of its impact on the fiscal position, and then assesses the fiscal sustainability gap in that context. It then presents models to address the question of the optimal path of fiscal consolidation given the outlook for natural resource wealth, macroeconomic conditions, and country authority preferences.
Keywords:
WP; discount rate; Suriname; Natural Resource Wealth; Optimal Fiscal Consolidation; Fiscal Sustainability; Fiscal Targets; sustainability gap; baseline projection; constraint method; commodity exporter; gold price; price projection; Output gap; Fiscal stance; Non-renewable resources; Natural resources; Global