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Western Hemisphere > Suriname

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted in Paramaribo, Suriname, during March 2‒13, 2020. The mission was part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS and was carried out in response to a request from the Central Bank of Suriname (CBvS). The mission reviewed estimates and coverage of the balance of payments and international investment position (IIP), which have been prepared in the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (BPM6) format. In particular, the mission’s work mainly aimed at enhancing the coverage and the classification of (i) currency and deposits assets held abroad by the nonfinancial sector; (ii) insurance services, transport, travel account and trade credit and advances; (iii) offshore petroleum exploration companies; (iv) government external debt; and (iv) the use of business survey. Improvements in these key areas will facilitate a more robust assessment of external sector developments. Reliable ESS is essential for informed economic policy-making by the authorities and for IMF’s surveillance.
Keywords:
IMF's Statistics Department; goods account; customs data; balance of payments manual; Statistics Department of the IMF; External sector statistics; Balance of payments statistics; International investment position; Imports; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth from International Capital Flows: The Role of Volatility Regimes
Antu Panini Murshid
and
Mr. Ashoka Mody
Recent commentary has downplayed the growth dividend from international financial integration, highlighting the possibly negative correlation between capital inflows and long-run growth. This paper presents new evidence consistent with standard economic theory and a more benign interpretation of cross-border private capital flows. The key observation is that a country’s growth volatility changes over time. With volatility below a threshold, an inflow of foreign capital has promoted growth. However, during periods of volatile growth, more flows have been associated with slower growth. Volatility levels and changes reflect an interaction of domestic production and institutional structures with global factors.
Keywords:
WP; dependent variable; volatility regime; capital flow; government type
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Financial Integration in the Caribbean: Evidence From Financial and Macroeconomic Data
Goohoon Kwon
and
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
This paper assesses the extent of regional financial integration in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) by analyzing equity prices in the region and rigidity of external financing constraints. The results are presented in a cross-regional perspective. The Caribbean stock markets are not as well integrated as one would expect from the extent of cross-listing and importance of regional banking groups: price differentials of cross-listed stocks reach an average of 5 percent. Auto-Regressive models suggest that these price differentials are only slowly arbitraged away, with half-lives exceeding 7 worked days, even when looking only at large arbitrage opportunities (using a Threshold Auto-Regressive model). A speculative methodology using macroeconomic data seems to confirm these findings. A strong mean reversion of the current account (respectively regional trade imbalances) is interpreted, following Obstfeld and Taylor (2004), as a lack of ways to finance current account deficits, i.e. a lack of global (respectively regional) financial integration. The region appears to be much less integrated than the EU15 or the ASEAN+3 groups, although it fares well compared to other LDCs.
Keywords:
WP; market capitalization; trade balance; exchange rate; CARICOM; cross-market premium; cross-listed stock; Threshold Auto-Regressive model; current account dynamics; CARICOM group; CARICOM community; CARICOM firm; price convergence; balance of payments; liquid asset; Financial integration; Stock markets; Stocks; Current account; Regional integration; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: 2008 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion for Suriname; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund
The key findings of Suriname’s 2008 Article IV Consultation show that a narrow economic base, terms-of-trade swings, and a weak policy/institutional framework have in the past led to macroeconomic instability. Weak policy and institutional frameworks have contributed to higher economic volatility and lower growth than in other commodity-exporting countries. These have undermined the credibility of policies and contributed to high financial dollarization, with over half of deposits denominated in foreign currency. Aided by high commodity prices and improved confidence, GDP growth is estimated at 5½ percent, with strong performance in both the mineral and nonmineral sectors.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Surinamese authorities; debt; IDB financing; terms of trade; price shock; GDP number; GDP ratio; Inflation; Public sector; Current account; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: 2007 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that aided by favorable external conditions and an improvement in macroeconomic management, Suriname’s economic performance has improved in recent years. Since 2002, the central government deficit has declined sharply, leading to a substantial decrease in public debt as a share of GDP. Monetary policy has focused on reducing inflation, while the central bank has become more independent. In 2006, macroeconomic performance was better than anticipated, benefiting from a continued favorable external environment. The outlook for 2007 looks broadly positive.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; overtime inflation expectation; Surinamese authorities; export base; CBvS; revenue stabilization fund; GDP number; authorities' hope; Commercial banks; Bank deposits; International reserves