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Western Hemisphere > Suriname

You are looking at 1 - 8 of 8 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Fiscal Policy x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
C. labor market indicator; I. monetary policy framework; labor market outcome; Suriname mineral health; IMF's transparency policy; Gender inequality; Fiscal rules; Monetary policy frameworks; Women; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Macro-Fiscal Forecasting
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This technical assistance report on Suriname highlights medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting (MTFF). The Economic Affairs Department (EAD) recognizes the desirability of creating a new medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting framework. Existing technical capacity relating to forecasting among most EAD staff is at a basic level. Training, through hands-on exercises using Surinamese data, will play an important role in supporting the development and ultimate adoption of the MTFF. There are several risks to the project’s success, including regarding data quality and availability, as well as competing demands on EAD staff time. Limited data and weak relationships between predictors (economic activity) and fiscal variables would limit the forecast accuracy of the MTFF, though it would still allow for more rigorous and transparent projections than is current practice. Regarding staff time, it is understood that EAD staff have a strong interest in the development and usage of an MTFF, hopefully ensuring sufficient time by a core group of persons is devoted to receiving technical assistance support to develop the tool.
Keywords:
EAD staff; staff time; Suriname debt management office; EAD forecast; MFP staff; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Revenue forecasting; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
On December 22, 2021, the IMF Executive Board approved a 36-month arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with access of 366.8 percent of quota (SDR 472.8 million or USD 673 million). The Surinamese authorities’ homegrown economic recovery plan aims to address systemic fiscal and external imbalances and chart a course toward debt sustainability, declining inflation, and economic recovery while maintaining social stability. In the first few months of the program, the authorities have made good progress but important risks remain.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; staff representative; Surinamese authorities; RMT regime; rising prices; Arrears; Monetary base; Exchange rates; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues explores ways for strengthening the current fiscal framework in Suriname and considers options for a new fiscal anchor. The paper provides an overview of mineral natural resources and their importance for the budget. It also lays out the current framework for fiscal planning and budget execution in Suriname and discusses the analytical underpinnings of modernizing it to make it more robust. The paper also presents estimates of long-term sustainability benchmarks based on the IMF’s policy toolkit for resource-rich developing countries. Suriname’s fiscal framework can be strengthened through a fiscal anchor rooted in the non-resource primary balance. Given the size of fiscal adjustment required to bring the non-resource primary balance in line with the long-term sustainability benchmark, a substantial transition period is needed to implement it. The IMF Staff’s adjustment scenario—designed to put public debt on the downward path—closes the current gap by less than half, implying that adjustment would need to continue beyond the 5-year horizon.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Suriname; IoT data; GIMF model; GDP data; high frequency data; tariffs vis-a-vis; Current spending; Public investment spending; Fiscal governance; Natural resources; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Suriname is recovering from the deep recession of 2015-16. Growth has turned positive, inflation has reduced to single digits, real interest rates have turned positive, and the external position has on balance strengthened. Nonetheless, the economy remains heavily dependent on the mineral sector, and faces fiscal, monetary, and banking sector vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Suriname; IMF staff calculation; GDP; holding; Suriname's economy; monetary policy operation; government mining revenue; underdeveloped monetary policy framework; financial asset; monetary policy; Fiscal stance; Exchange rates; Monetary base; Caribbean; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries: The Case of Suriname
Mr. Daniel S Kanda
and
Mr. Mario Mansilla
This paper first attempts to quantify the natural resource wealth of Suriname from the perspective of its impact on the fiscal position, and then assesses the fiscal sustainability gap in that context. It then presents models to address the question of the optimal path of fiscal consolidation given the outlook for natural resource wealth, macroeconomic conditions, and country authority preferences.
Keywords:
WP; discount rate; Suriname; Natural Resource Wealth; Optimal Fiscal Consolidation; Fiscal Sustainability; Fiscal Targets; sustainability gap; baseline projection; constraint method; commodity exporter; gold price; price projection; Output gap; Fiscal stance; Non-renewable resources; Natural resources; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence From the Caribbean
Ms. Lisa Drakes
,
Ms. Chrystol Thomas
,
Roland Craigwell
, and
Kevin Greenidge
This paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in the Caribbean. The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 55–56 percent. Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is reached. Specifically, at debt levels lower than 30 percent of GDP, increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio are associated with faster economic growth. However, as debt rises beyond 30 percent, the effects on economic growth diminishes rapidly and at debt levels reaching 55-56 percent of GDP, the growth impacts switch from positive to negative. Thus, beyond this threshold, debt becomes a drag on growth.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; least squares; percentage point; Debt Problems; Debt Threshold; Panel Data; Threshold Regressions; threshold estimation technique; growth rate; GDP ratio; growth-reducing effect debt; CARICOM government; threshold debt regression; debt variable; debt level; government spending; GDP cost; threshold estimation techniques of Hansen; Threshold analysis; Fiscal stance; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: 2007 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund
This 2007 Article IV Consultation highlights that aided by favorable external conditions and an improvement in macroeconomic management, Suriname’s economic performance has improved in recent years. Since 2002, the central government deficit has declined sharply, leading to a substantial decrease in public debt as a share of GDP. Monetary policy has focused on reducing inflation, while the central bank has become more independent. In 2006, macroeconomic performance was better than anticipated, benefiting from a continued favorable external environment. The outlook for 2007 looks broadly positive.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; overtime inflation expectation; Surinamese authorities; export base; CBvS; revenue stabilization fund; GDP number; authorities' hope; Commercial banks; Bank deposits; International reserves