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Western Hemisphere > Suriname

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Guyana: Why Has Growth Stopped? An Empirical Study on the Stagnation of Economic Growth
Judith Gold
,
Mr. Ruben V Atoyan
, and
Miss Cornelia Staritz
After a period of exceptionally strong economic performance, Guyana's growth has stagnated since 1998. The paper tries to identify the factors that can explain this dramatic deterioration in economic performance. The paper first attempts to explain the decline of growth with a growth accounting exercise which shows that there was a significant swing in total factor productivity, and than uses a panel regression framework to analyze the growth impact of changes in various factors. Finally, through a series of cross-country exercises, the paper shows that the primary reasons for the divergence between the economic performance of Guyana and other Caribbean, HIPC, and PRGF-eligible countries in 1998-2004 are a substantial decline in share of net foreign and private domestic investment in GDP, a decline in the labor force, and a less favorable political and institutional environment.
Keywords:
WP; sub
Cover Developments and Challenges in the Caribbean Region
Developments and Challenges in the Caribbean Region
Mr. Simon Cueva
,
Mr. Stephen Tokarick
,
Mr. Erik J. Lundback
,
Ms. Janet Gale Stotsky
, and
Mr. Samuel P. Itam

Abstract

This paper focuses on the independent states that are full members of the Caribbean Community. It provides background information on recent developments in the Caribbean region and lays out the principal policy issues that countries will need to address in the period ahead. The Caribbean countries face several common problems and must deal with similar economic policy issues. Consequently, concentrating on the regional perspective permits a comparison of the individual responses to similar problems. The regional view throws light on the countries' movement toward convergence. The economic prospects for the region are generally satisfactory over the medium term, but the projections depend importantly on the resolve of governments to pursue appropriate policies, as well as favorable developments in the rest of the world. The relatively favorable outlook for the region is not without risks, such as a slowdown in growth in the major trading partner countries or a term of trade shock.

Keywords:
OP; country; deficit; inflation differential; public sector deficit; Caribbean country; public sector wage bill; inflation in the OECS country; world commodity; Exports; Imports; Public sector; Trade facilitation; Inflation; Caribbean; North America