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Western Hemisphere > Suriname

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
2024 Selected Issues
Keywords:
C. labor market indicator; I. monetary policy framework; labor market outcome; Suriname mineral health; IMF's transparency policy; Gender inequality; Fiscal rules; Monetary policy frameworks; Women; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Suriname
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Suriname’s Sixth Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. The authorities’ strong policy and efforts to stabilize the economy are yielding positive results: the economy is growing, inflation is on a steady downward trend, and investor confidence is returning. Suriname is implementing an ambitious economic reform agenda aimed at restoring fiscal and debt sustainability through fiscal consolidation and debt restructuring, protecting the vulnerable by expanding social protection, upgrading the monetary and exchange rate policy framework, addressing banking sector vulnerabilities, and advancing the anti-corruption and governance agenda. Monetary policy is supporting disinflation. The authorities’ demonstrated commitment to flexible, market-determined exchange rate is supporting international reserves accumulation. Finalization of the central bank recapitalization plan will help further strengthen its operational independence and financial autonomy. Building on the progress made thus far under the program, continued efforts are needed to entrench fiscal discipline, while protecting the poor and vulnerable, and further strengthen institutions and address governance weaknesses.
Keywords:
FX trading platform; address governance weakness; Policy outlook; Surinamese authorities; banking sector vulnerability; governance agenda; policy reform; State oil company; government T-bill exposure; Arrears; Energy subsidies; Domestic debt; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report on Government Finance Statistics Mission-(October 10–21, 2022)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This technical assistance report on Suriname highlights proceedings of the Government Finance Statistics (GFS) mission. The authorities have partially followed the recommendations from previous mission that took place in April 2022. While there has been significant progress in below-the-line data, little progress has been made in above-the-line data. Compilers from the Statistics Department of the Central Bank of Suriname have compiled a financial balance sheet of the Central Government (CG) to assure the integration of flows with the stocks of financial assets and liabilities. In addition, they perform regular consistency checks of data on the CG deposits and loans with the recordings in the banking system. No developments have been achieved regarding the institutional sector coverage and little progress has been done regarding the above-the-line data compilation. One of the main issues that hamper GFS data quality is that no comprehensive data on the government revenues and expenditure exist in Suriname. The mission provided an extended hands-on training for the main GFS team compiling above-the-line transactions.
Keywords:
government finance Statistics mission; IMF's Statistics department; Suriname debt management office; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; GFS compiler; Government finance statistics; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Commercial banks; Stocks
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Macro-Fiscal Forecasting
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This technical assistance report on Suriname highlights medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting (MTFF). The Economic Affairs Department (EAD) recognizes the desirability of creating a new medium-term macro-fiscal forecasting framework. Existing technical capacity relating to forecasting among most EAD staff is at a basic level. Training, through hands-on exercises using Surinamese data, will play an important role in supporting the development and ultimate adoption of the MTFF. There are several risks to the project’s success, including regarding data quality and availability, as well as competing demands on EAD staff time. Limited data and weak relationships between predictors (economic activity) and fiscal variables would limit the forecast accuracy of the MTFF, though it would still allow for more rigorous and transparent projections than is current practice. Regarding staff time, it is understood that EAD staff have a strong interest in the development and usage of an MTFF, hopefully ensuring sufficient time by a core group of persons is devoted to receiving technical assistance support to develop the tool.
Keywords:
EAD staff; staff time; Suriname debt management office; EAD forecast; MFP staff; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Revenue forecasting; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report on Government Finance Statistics Mission (December 6-17, 2021)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
At the request of the Suriname authorities, a remote technical assistance (TA) mission took place during December 6–17, 2021. The mission was conducted in coordination with the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department. The main objective of the mission was to assist the Ministry of Finance and Planning (MFP) and the Central Bank of Suriname (CBS) to improve the quality of the Government Finance Statistics (GFS) in view of the IMF program. The main tasks were to (i) conduct a diagnostic assessment of the current GFS and public debt compilation process,(ii) explain and reduce statistical discrepancies, (iii) analyze data on arrears and reassess their treatment in GFS, (iv) review the integration of stocks and flows of the gross debt; and (v) update the public sector institutional table, and (vi) deliver a workshop on GFSM 2014 framework and (PSDS).
Keywords:
IMF's Statistics Department; Suriname debt management office; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; government finance Statistics mission; CBS accounting report; Government finance statistics; Stocks; Fiscal accounting and reporting
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues explores ways for strengthening the current fiscal framework in Suriname and considers options for a new fiscal anchor. The paper provides an overview of mineral natural resources and their importance for the budget. It also lays out the current framework for fiscal planning and budget execution in Suriname and discusses the analytical underpinnings of modernizing it to make it more robust. The paper also presents estimates of long-term sustainability benchmarks based on the IMF’s policy toolkit for resource-rich developing countries. Suriname’s fiscal framework can be strengthened through a fiscal anchor rooted in the non-resource primary balance. Given the size of fiscal adjustment required to bring the non-resource primary balance in line with the long-term sustainability benchmark, a substantial transition period is needed to implement it. The IMF Staff’s adjustment scenario—designed to put public debt on the downward path—closes the current gap by less than half, implying that adjustment would need to continue beyond the 5-year horizon.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Suriname; IoT data; GIMF model; GDP data; high frequency data; tariffs vis-a-vis; Current spending; Public investment spending; Fiscal governance; Natural resources; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Technical Assistance Report-National Accounts Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance Report discusses measures required to improve the national accounts of Suriname, including consistency with the System of National Accounts 2008. The General Bureau of Statistics (GBS) is expected to implement the recommendations of the IMF mission progressively over a five-year period. Given the staff time wasted on data entry and potential transcription errors, the GBS should give high priority to requesting the Ministry of Finance to provide the Government accounts data in Excel format for 2015 onward. With the support of the Finance Minister, the GBS also needs to implement a formal agreement with the Tax Department to share tax registration data, company income tax returns and sales tax returns.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; estimate; GDP; center; price index; KPV estimate; GDP-p estimate; GDP estimate; SUT estimate; CPV estimate; GDP-e estimate; current price; BM estimate; GDP-P estimate; Consumer price indexes; Data collection; Price indexes; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Investment Scaling-up and Debt Sustainability: The Case of Energy Sector Investments in the Caribbean
Ahmed El-Ashram
The question of how scaling up public investment could affect fiscal and debt sustainability is key for countries needing to fill infrastructure gaps and build resilience. This paper proposes a bottom-up approach to assess large public investments that are potentially self-financing and reflect their impact in macro-fiscal projections that underpin the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis Framework. Using the case of energy sector investments in Caribbean countries, the paper shows how to avoid biases against good projects that pay off over long horizons and ensure that transformative investments are not sacrificed to myopic assessments of debt sustainability risks. The approach is applicable to any macro-critical investment for which user fees can cover financing costs and which has the potential to raise growth without crowding-out.
Keywords:
WP; cost saving; energy investment; investment project; investment scaling-up; management framework; Public Investment; Debt Sustainability; Growth; Energy Reform; Caribbean; User Fees; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public sector
Cover IMF Working Papers
Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence From the Caribbean
Ms. Lisa Drakes
,
Ms. Chrystol Thomas
,
Roland Craigwell
, and
Kevin Greenidge
This paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in the Caribbean. The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 55–56 percent. Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is reached. Specifically, at debt levels lower than 30 percent of GDP, increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio are associated with faster economic growth. However, as debt rises beyond 30 percent, the effects on economic growth diminishes rapidly and at debt levels reaching 55-56 percent of GDP, the growth impacts switch from positive to negative. Thus, beyond this threshold, debt becomes a drag on growth.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; least squares; percentage point; Debt Problems; Debt Threshold; Panel Data; Threshold Regressions; threshold estimation technique; growth rate; GDP ratio; growth-reducing effect debt; CARICOM government; threshold debt regression; debt variable; debt level; government spending; GDP cost; threshold estimation techniques of Hansen; Threshold analysis; Fiscal stance; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Suriname: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Suriname during 1994–96. In 1995, there was a major turnaround in Suriname’s economic and financial situation following the expansionary fiscal and monetary policies pursued in the first half of the 1990s and the political and economic disruptions of the 1980s. The marked improvement was owing to the restoration of financial discipline, a strengthening of international bauxite prices, and the unification and subsequent stabilization of the exchange rate. The inflation fell further to less than 1 percent in 1996.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Suriname; wage award; government study; rate; government of Suriname; government ministry; wage agreement; rate of inflation; Pensions; Commercial banks; Civil service; Pension spending; Tariffs; Caribbean