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Western Hemisphere > Suriname

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 12 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Waiting for Godot? The Case for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Small Island States
Mr. Serhan Cevik
Global warming is the most significant threat to ecosystems and people’s health and living standards, especially in small island states in the Caribbean and elsewhere. This paper contributes to the debate by analyzing different options to scale up climate change mitigation and adaptation. In particular, the empirical analysis indicates that increasing energy efficiency and reducing the use of fossil fuel in electricity generation could lead to a significant reduction in carbon emissions, while investing in physical and financial resilience would yield long-run benefits. From a risk-reward perspective, the advantages of reducing the risks associated with climate change and the health benefits from higher environmental quality clearly outweigh the potential cost of climate change mitigation and adaptation in the short run. The additional revenue generated by environmental taxes could be used to compensate the most vulnerable households, building a multilayered safety net, and strengthening structural resilience.
Keywords:
Climate change; decarbanization; energy efficiency; mitigation; adaptation; carbon tax; green financing; climate change mitigation; risk-reward perspective; Island state; adaptation strategy; climate change adaptation; Greenhouse gas emissions; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring the Redistributive Capacity of Tax Policies
Charles Vellutini
and
Juan Carlos Benitez
This paper presents a novel technique to measure and compare the redistributive capacity of observed tax (or transfer) policies. The technique is based on income distribution simulations and controls for differences in pre-tax income distributions. It assumes that the only information on the pre-tax distribution available in each country-year is the Gini coefficient and the mean (GDP per capita). We illustrate the technique with an application to the personal income tax, using a dataset of 108 countries over the 2007-2018 period.
Keywords:
Income distribution; redistribution; progressivity; personal income tax; novel technique; PIT redistribution; TRANSPLANT-AND-COMPARE method; PIT Progressive; market income Gini Coefficients; Income distribution; Income; Personal income tax; Progressive taxation; Income inequality; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Trinity Strikes Back: Monetary Independence and Inflation in the Caribbean
Mr. Serhan Cevik
and
Tianle Zhu
Monetary independence is at the core of the macroeconomic policy trilemma stating that an independent monetary policy, a fixed exchange rate and free movement of capital cannot exist at the same time. This study examines the relationship between monetary autonomy and inflation dynamics in a panel of Caribbean countries over the period 1980–2017. The empirical results show that monetary independence is a significant factor in determining inflation, even after controlling for macroeconomic developments. In other words, greater monetary policy independence, measured as a country’s ability to conduct its own monetary policy for domestic purposes independent of external monetary influences, leads to lower consumer price inflation. This relationship—robust to alternative specifications and estimation methodologies—has clear policy implications, especially for countries that maintain pegged exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar with a critical bearing on monetary autonomy.
Keywords:
WP; independence; country; inflation dynamics; Macroeconomic trilemma; monetary independence; exchange rate fexibility; inflation; consumer price inflation; inflation aversion; system GMM identification assumption; inflation in the Caribbean; dynamics in a group; GMM estimation; monetary policy autonomy; Monetary policy frameworks; Exchange rate arrangements; Conventional peg; Central bank autonomy; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Investment Scaling-up and Debt Sustainability: The Case of Energy Sector Investments in the Caribbean
Ahmed El-Ashram
The question of how scaling up public investment could affect fiscal and debt sustainability is key for countries needing to fill infrastructure gaps and build resilience. This paper proposes a bottom-up approach to assess large public investments that are potentially self-financing and reflect their impact in macro-fiscal projections that underpin the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis Framework. Using the case of energy sector investments in Caribbean countries, the paper shows how to avoid biases against good projects that pay off over long horizons and ensure that transformative investments are not sacrificed to myopic assessments of debt sustainability risks. The approach is applicable to any macro-critical investment for which user fees can cover financing costs and which has the potential to raise growth without crowding-out.
Keywords:
WP; cost saving; energy investment; investment project; investment scaling-up; management framework; Public Investment; Debt Sustainability; Growth; Energy Reform; Caribbean; User Fees; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public sector
Cover IMF Working Papers
Modeling Appropriate Fiscal Targets and Optimal Consolidation Paths for Resource-Rich Countries: The Case of Suriname
Mr. Daniel S Kanda
and
Mr. Mario Mansilla
This paper first attempts to quantify the natural resource wealth of Suriname from the perspective of its impact on the fiscal position, and then assesses the fiscal sustainability gap in that context. It then presents models to address the question of the optimal path of fiscal consolidation given the outlook for natural resource wealth, macroeconomic conditions, and country authority preferences.
Keywords:
WP; discount rate; Suriname; Natural Resource Wealth; Optimal Fiscal Consolidation; Fiscal Sustainability; Fiscal Targets; sustainability gap; baseline projection; constraint method; commodity exporter; gold price; price projection; Output gap; Fiscal stance; Non-renewable resources; Natural resources; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Labor Market Issues in the Caribbean: Scope to Mobilize Employment Growth
Ms. Magda E. Kandil
,
Mrs. Genevieve M Lindow
,
Mr. Mario Mansilla
,
Mr. Joel Chiedu Okwuokei
,
Jochen M. Schmittmann
,
Qiaoe Chen
,
Xin Li
,
Marika Santoro
, and
Solomon Stavis
The paper examines the determinants of employment growth, drawing on data available across a sample of Caribbean countries. To that end, the paper analyzes estimates of the employment-output elasticity and the response of employment growth to major sources of labor market determinants, in the long and short run. The main determinants of employment include government investment and private sector credit, while the major determinants of external performance are real effective exchange rate, the price of major exporting commodities, the number of tourists, and growth in major trading partners. The paper concludes with a menu of policy recommendations and structural reforms towards sustaining high employment growth and higher living standards in the Caribbean.
Keywords:
WP; employment growth; labor market; employment-output elasticity; business cycles; Caribbean; macro policies; structural reforms; private sector; elasticity estimate; government employment program; determination flexibility; job content; Employment; Labor markets; Unemployment rate; Unemployment; Labor force; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean
Ms. Magda E. Kandil
The paper investigates asymmetry in the allocation of aggregate demand shocks between real output growth and price inflation over the business cycle in a sample of fifteen Caribbean countries. In most countries, the evidence indicates the existence of structural constraints, implying that positive demand shocks feed predominantly into prices while negative demand shocks mainly affect output. The high variability of aggregate demand in Caribbean countries, frequently exposed to shocks that are exacerbated by pro-cyclical policy stance, tends to create an upward bias on inflation and a downward bias on real output growth, on average, over time. The analysis highlights the benefits of eliminating structural rigidities responsible for asymmetric real and inflationary effects and points to the dangers of procyclical macroeconomic policies that exacerbate the adverse effects of demand variability.
Keywords:
WP; price inflation; demand variability; output growth; trend inflation; energy price; price rigidity; trade balance; Demand Shocks Asymmetric Effects Contractionary and Inflationary Biases; price uncertainty; price flexibility; output contraction; price inflation to expansionary demand shocks; product price; real growth; inflation bias; expansionary demand shock; inflation to expansionary demand shocks; Inflation; Exchange rates; Production growth; Sticky prices; Exchange rate arrangements; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence From the Caribbean
Ms. Lisa Drakes
,
Ms. Chrystol Thomas
,
Roland Craigwell
, and
Kevin Greenidge
This paper addresses the issue of threshold effects between public debt and economic growth in the Caribbean. The main finding is that there exists a threshold debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of 55–56 percent. Moreover, the debt dynamics begin changing well before this threshold is reached. Specifically, at debt levels lower than 30 percent of GDP, increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio are associated with faster economic growth. However, as debt rises beyond 30 percent, the effects on economic growth diminishes rapidly and at debt levels reaching 55-56 percent of GDP, the growth impacts switch from positive to negative. Thus, beyond this threshold, debt becomes a drag on growth.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; least squares; percentage point; Debt Problems; Debt Threshold; Panel Data; Threshold Regressions; threshold estimation technique; growth rate; GDP ratio; growth-reducing effect debt; CARICOM government; threshold debt regression; debt variable; debt level; government spending; GDP cost; threshold estimation techniques of Hansen; Threshold analysis; Fiscal stance; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth from International Capital Flows: The Role of Volatility Regimes
Antu Panini Murshid
and
Mr. Ashoka Mody
Recent commentary has downplayed the growth dividend from international financial integration, highlighting the possibly negative correlation between capital inflows and long-run growth. This paper presents new evidence consistent with standard economic theory and a more benign interpretation of cross-border private capital flows. The key observation is that a country’s growth volatility changes over time. With volatility below a threshold, an inflow of foreign capital has promoted growth. However, during periods of volatile growth, more flows have been associated with slower growth. Volatility levels and changes reflect an interaction of domestic production and institutional structures with global factors.
Keywords:
WP; dependent variable; volatility regime; capital flow; government type
Cover IMF Working Papers
Regional Financial Integration in the Caribbean: Evidence From Financial and Macroeconomic Data
Goohoon Kwon
and
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
This paper assesses the extent of regional financial integration in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) by analyzing equity prices in the region and rigidity of external financing constraints. The results are presented in a cross-regional perspective. The Caribbean stock markets are not as well integrated as one would expect from the extent of cross-listing and importance of regional banking groups: price differentials of cross-listed stocks reach an average of 5 percent. Auto-Regressive models suggest that these price differentials are only slowly arbitraged away, with half-lives exceeding 7 worked days, even when looking only at large arbitrage opportunities (using a Threshold Auto-Regressive model). A speculative methodology using macroeconomic data seems to confirm these findings. A strong mean reversion of the current account (respectively regional trade imbalances) is interpreted, following Obstfeld and Taylor (2004), as a lack of ways to finance current account deficits, i.e. a lack of global (respectively regional) financial integration. The region appears to be much less integrated than the EU15 or the ASEAN+3 groups, although it fares well compared to other LDCs.
Keywords:
WP; market capitalization; trade balance; exchange rate; CARICOM; cross-market premium; cross-listed stock; Threshold Auto-Regressive model; current account dynamics; CARICOM group; CARICOM community; CARICOM firm; price convergence; balance of payments; liquid asset; Financial integration; Stock markets; Stocks; Current account; Regional integration; Caribbean; Global