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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for Somalia highlights that Somalia continued to face challenges while implementing the Ninth National Development Plan in 2021 and 2022. Since 2020, the country has been struggling with the ongoing impacts of a desert locust infestation, persistent drought, the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and global food and fuel price increases due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. All of these shocks compounded the hardships of the population, including food insecurity. The number of people facing food insecurity due to the drought rose from 3.2 million in January 2022 to5.6 million by end-2022. Parliamentary and Presidential elections that were supposed to commence by end-2020 were not completed until in May 2022, also affecting the timing of external grant disbursements. The mid-term review report addresses concerns raised in staffs’ previous JSAN on Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Completion Point, climate change, and revenue mobilization. In terms of progress toward the HIPC Completion Point, as of September 2023 the government has completed 13 of 14 Completion Point triggers.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The International Monetary Fund’s engagement on social safety net (SSN) issues is likely to expand as member countries respond to growing challenges in the economic and fiscal landscape. SSNs play a crucial role in protecting households from poverty, promoting inclusive growth, and maintaining social stability. This technical note discusses (1) the different channels through which SSN spending may become macro-critical, (2) how to assess the importance of these channels, and (3) the types of policy responses that are appropriate and the trade-offs involved in choosing among them. To facilitate a more comprehensive assessment of SSN spending, the paper also examines the complementary role of labor market programs (for example, unemployment benefits and active labor market programs). The paper emphasizes the importance of early engagement and coordination with development partners with expertise on social safety nets and with different stakeholders when formulating policy advice.
International Monetary Fund
In this study, the ex post assessment (EPA) of longer program engagement with Mauritania is discussed. From this program, macroeconomic stability has been achieved. EPAs are intended to provide an opportunity to step back from continuing program relations to consider an analysis of the economic problems facing the country, review progress under IMF-supported programs, and draw forward-looking lessons for future IMF engagement. The newly designed poverty reduction strategy and ECF-supported program addresses the challenges identified by the EPA.
International Monetary Fund
The Annual Progress Report (APR) provides no estimates or analysis of current poverty levels and the poverty effects of the Liberia Poverty Reduction Strategy (LPRS) in the absence of reliable statistics. IMF staff recommends including a thorough poverty diagnosis that builds on the results of the two Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaires (CWIQs) in the next APR. During the first year of implementation of the LPRS, the authorities have strengthened the environment for sustainable economic growth, development, and poverty reduction. Progress in reforming and activating the productive sectors—particularly forestry, mining, and agriculture—has been slower than expected.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility for Armenia. Armenia’s economy performs strongly. All end-December 2006 quantitative and all but one structural performance criteria were observed. The main policy challenges are to broaden economic growth, raise tax revenues, and manage large foreign exchange inflows. Fiscal policy remains appropriate. Meeting the ambitious 2007 revenue target will require broadening the tax base and strengthening administration. The stance of monetary policy is appropriate.
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for the Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility focuses on the Republic of Armenia’s economic environment and policy discussion. Financial sector reforms will focus on improving corporate governance, strengthening regulation and supervision, and deepening financial intermediation. Price developments should be monitored closely and monetary policy tightened further should inflation pressures increase. The authorities’ plan to subsidize the local gas supplier to limit gas tariff increases for end-users is cause for concern.
Mr. Sumio Ishikawa
,
Ms. Sibel Beadle
,
Mr. Damien Eastman
,
Ms. Srobona Mitra
,
Mr. Alejandro Lopez Mejia
,
Ms. Wafa F Abdelati
,
Mr. Koji Nakamura
,
Mr. Il Houng Lee
,
Ms. Sònia Muñoz
,
Mr. Robert P. Hagemann
,
Mr. David T. Coe
, and
Ms. Nadia Rendak

Abstract

Cambodia's reconstruction and reform efforts have spanned almost 25 years following the Khmer Rouge period, which ended in 1979. Economic reforms began in earnest in the early 1990s, but reform efforts were beset by ongoing internal tensions and civil unrest. Although external factors, including sizable aid inflows and a trade agreement with the United States, helped boost growth in the past decade, the country remains one of the poorest in the region. The current coalition government has announced a strategy aimed at revitalizing economic reforms, and in 2004 Cambodia formally joined the World Trade Organization. But elimination of the garment quota system under the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing is exposing an underlying deterioration in competitiveness, which, coupled with slow growth in the agriculture sector and other structural obstacles to private sector growth, has resulted in a medium-term outlook that remains uncertain.

Mr. Christian H. Beddies
,
Mr. Enrique A Gelbard
,
Mr. James McHugh
,
Ms. Laure Redifer
, and
Mr. Garbis Iradian

Abstract

Since 2000, Armenia's economic performance has been remarkable. Real economic growth has averaged 11 percent a year, annual inflation has averaged 3 percent, and poverty and inequality have fallen. The country has outperformed other low-income countries including other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States. This is particularly impressive given the geographical location of Armenia, the closure of two critical borders, and occasional political turmoil. The key factors behind Armenia's economic performance are prudent monetary and fiscal policies, liberal trade and foreign exchange regimes, rapid and relaively well-sequenced structural reforms, and support from the Armenian diaspora. In addition, the implementation of a poverty reduction strategy since 2002 has complemented the effect of economic growth on reducing poverty. This book assesses the country's economic transformation during the last 10 years and discusses the challenges to sustaining these successes.

International Monetary Fund
Cambodia’s 2004 Article IV Consultation reports that the macroeconomic performance has been generally good, reflecting both favorable external developments and prudent fiscal policy. Exports soared following a bilateral trade agreement with the United States, and large aid inflows helped finance domestic investment and spurred construction activities. Prudent fiscal policy has been the key to ensuring price stability. Overall GDP growth has been robust mainly because of a strong rebound in agricultural production.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Russia’s unexpectedly strong recovery since its 1998 crisis has left people wondering whether it is just a temporary result of higher oil prices and the postcrisis depreciation of the ruble or a sign ofdurable improvements in the much-battered economy. This question is addressed in the book Russia Rebounds, written by members of the IMF’s Russian team and due out later this year. John Odling-Smee, Director of the IMF’s European II Department, spoke with Laura Wallace about Russia’s prospects and its relationship with the IMF during the troubled 1990s. Odling-Smee, a U.K. national, joined the IMF in 1990 and took over responsibility for the IMF’s relations with former Soviet Union countries in 1992. Before that, he served in the U.K. Cabinet Office and Treasury for about 15 years.