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Social Science > Poverty and Homelessness

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Cover Policy Papers
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects For Low-Income Countries—2024
International Monetary Fund
and
World Bank
The outlook for Low-Income Countries (LICs) is gradually improving, but they face persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including liquidity challenges due to high debt service. There is significant heterogeneity among LICs: the poorest and most fragile countries have faced deep scarring from the pandemic, while those with diversified economies and Frontier Markets are faring better. Achieving inclusive growth and building resilience are essential for LICs to converge with more advanced economies and meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Building resilience will also be critical in the context of a more shock-prone world. This requires both decisive domestic actions, including expanding and better targeting Social Safety Nets (SSNs), and substantial external support, including adequate financing, policy advice, capacity development and, where needed, debt relief. The Fund is further stepping up its support through targeted policy advice, capacity building, and financing.
Keywords:
Low-Income Countries; Heterogeneity; Debt vulnerability; Resilience building; Inclusive growth towards SDGs; Financing needs and external support; Social Safety Nets; poverty rate; means testing; poverty gap; aggregate poverty gap; SSNS spending; prospects in low-income countries; poverty threshold exit poverty; reform scenario; transparency policy; FAD financing tool; financial support; Poverty reduction; Household consumption; Inflation; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Pandemic, Poverty, and Inequality: Evidence from India
Surjit Bhalla
,
Karan Bhasin
, and
Mr. Arvind Virmani
The paper presents estimates of poverty [extreme poverty PPP$1.9 and PPP$3.2] and consumption inequality in India for each of the years 2004-5 through the pandemic year 2020-21. These estimates include, for the first time, the effect of in-kind food subsides on poverty and inequality. Extreme poverty was as low as 0.8 percent in the pre-pandemic year 2019, and food transfers were instrumental in ensuring that it remained at that low level in pandemic year 2020. Post-food subsidy inequality at .294 is now very close to its lowest level 0.284 observed in 1993/94.
Keywords:
Poverty Measurement; Pandemic; food transfer; consumption inequality; consumption expenditure; poverty PPP; estimates of poverty; Consumption; Income inequality; Agricultural commodities; Household consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics
Johannes Emmerling
,
Davide Furceri
,
Francisco Líbano Monteiro
,
Mr. Prakash Loungani
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
,
Pietro Pizzuto
, and
Massimo Tavoni
COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes.
Keywords:
impulse response; effects of pandemic; list of pandemic; pandemic event; baseline estimate; impact of COVID-19; COVID-19; Greenhouse gas emissions; Income inequality; Income distribution; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk: Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania
Mr. Matthieu Bellon
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
, and
Mr. Roberto Perrelli
Economic volatility remains a fact of life in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Household-level shocks create large consumption fluctuations, raising the incidence of poverty. Drawing on micro-level data from South Africa and Tanzania, we examine the vulnerability to shocks across household types (e.g. by education, ethnic group, and economic activity) and we quantify the impact that reducing consumption volatility would have on aggregate poverty. We then discuss coverage of consumption insurance mechanisms, including financial access and transfers. Country characteristics crucially determine which household-level shocks are most prevalent and which consumption-smoothing mechanisms are available. In Tanzania, agricultural shocks are an important source of consumption risk as two thirds of households are involved in some level of agricultural production. For South Africa, we focus on labor market risk proxied by transitions from formal employment to informal work or unemployment. We find that access to credit, when available, and government transfers can effectively mitigate labor market shocks.
Keywords:
WP; Tanzania; consumption volatility; food consumption; consumption fluctuation; consumption deviation; consumption level; counterfactual consumption allocation; consumption loss; Consumption; Income; Household consumption; Employment; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Poverty; South Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on macro-critical issues related to governance and corruption in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Third-party indicators suggest that governance has been poor and corruption widespread in the country. Conducting an audit of the civil service and improving the transparency of its remuneration system, simplifying tax payment processes, and merging the activities of the numerous revenue agencies would boost public efficiency and improve the business environment. Contract enforcement and protection of property rights could be enhanced by insulating the courts from external influence. Limited information on the budget annexes and special accounts and little or no oversight by the central government, Parliament, and civil society, create scope for corruption. The multiplicity of special taxes and fees, some accruing to special accounts outside the Treasury, generate opportunities for corruption and informalization of economic activity. Despite some progress in strengthening public financial management, budget execution remains deficient. The government has formalized the four stages of the expenditure chain and introduced budget commitment plans to align expenditures with revenues.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Congo; country; government; DRC government expenditure; bank rating; natural resource; B. government strategy; resource sector; revenue agency; curse thesis; FBNBANK DRC; Mining sector; Natural resources; Budget planning and preparation; Corruption; Global; Southern Africa; Central Africa
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Seizing the Momentum
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

Keywords:
REO; country abbreviation; commodity exporter; commodity
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Seizing the Momentum
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

Keywords:
REO; country abbreviation; commodity exporter; commodity; tourism dependent; IMF staff calculation; commodity price; Fiscal consolidation; Inflation; Income inequality; Caribbean; Global; Central America; South America; Western Hemisphere; inflation expectation; nominal GDP; central bank credibility; headline inflation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Economic Development Document
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Economic Development Document highlights the Moldova 2020 National Development Strategy focus on producing a social and economic impact on various development priorities. Poverty reduction has progressed significantly during the past eight years: the national poverty rate decreased from 26.4 percent in 2008 to 9.6 percent in 2015. Remittances by emigrants and higher agricultural income, salaries, and social benefits were the major drivers of poverty reduction. The means-tested social assistance program had a significant impact. This social aid has proved to be the most efficient social protection against poverty; however, social support programs that are not means tested are ineffective.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Moldova; absolute poverty; poverty rate; bullet; government of the Republic of Moldova; labour market; poverty level; feasibility study; development program; company manager; Renewable energy; Development strategy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Being Poor, Feeling Poorer: Inequality, Poverty and Poverty Perceptions in the Western Balkans
Zsoka Koczan
Emerging Europe has undergone a major economic transformation over the past 25 years. Most countries experienced initial drops in output during transition, followed by recovery in the second half of the 1990s. The path of transition in the Western Balkans has however been particularly uneven. The effects of transition also seem to have been more traumatic and persistent in the Western Balkans, and nostalgia for the past appears to be more prevalent here than in other former communist regions. Such dissatisfaction has important implications for the political economy of further reforms. This paper aims to inform policy by complementing the analysis of standard macro-level measures of inequality and poverty with a household-level analysis of subjective perceptions of poverty. We find that many more people appear to feel poor than are classified as such using purely income-based measures. Uncertainty, in particular related to expectations of future income and vulnerability to shocks, appears to be a key driver behind this discrepancy.
Keywords:
WP; center; poverty perception; poverty measure; capital expenditure; household expenditure; Inequality; Poverty; Western Balkans; Subjective poverty measures; farm income; poverty indicator; poverty gap; poverty in the Western Balkans; Personal income; Income inequality; Poverty measurement; Central and Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinea-Bissau: Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents the Joint Staff Advisory Note on Guinea-Bissau’s Second National Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP II) covering 2011–15. The PRSP II, adopted by the government in July 2011, provides the framework for the implementation of a comprehensive strategy aimed at consolidating macroeconomic stabilization and strengthening recent improvements in economic governance. Its successful implementation would help the country enhance its economic growth conditions, strengthen the rule of law, and accelerate progress toward the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PRSP II; cooperating partner; II policy; government address personnel management; II note; II program; II strategy; government plan; II priority; demonstrated commitment; forthright assessment; candid assessment; Natural resources; Africa; Global; West Africa