Social Science > Poverty and Homelessness

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Johannes Emmerling
,
Davide Furceri
,
Francisco Líbano Monteiro
,
Mr. Prakash Loungani
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
,
Pietro Pizzuto
, and
Massimo Tavoni
COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes.
International Monetary Fund
The Joint Staff Advisory Note report assesses that Maldives has achieved notable development progress through sound macroeconomic management, tourism development, and public service provision improvement under the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Executive Directors emphasized the need to strengthen the fiscal policy framework, develop institutions, implement structural reforms and a realistic budget to mitigating risks, and ensure macroeconomic stability. Directors welcomed the Seventh National Development Plan, the new Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper, and stressed the need for significant efforts to ensure the successful implementation of the economic development program.
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews the joint advice of the staffs of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund on the Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRSP). This I-PRSP outlines the main areas envisaged to reduce poverty and the measures for the implementation of the full Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS). The full PRSP could improve on the I-PRSP by building on its strength of inclusiveness, strengthening its policy focus, including the link between policy and resource use, and elaborating a clear framework for the coordination and monitoring of the strategy.