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International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
At the request of the Ministry of Finance, a mission from the International Monetary Fund visited San Jose. The purpose of the mission was to assess the proposal to a universal basic pension and to estimate its fiscal and welfare impact on the budget, on pension schemes, and on old age income poverty. Costa Rica is entering a demographic transition which will see the old age dependency ratios significantly worsen in the coming 20 years. The long-term financial sustainability of the general social security pension scheme (IVM) is a concern, despite various reforms introduced over the past three decades and the scheme’s reserves are expected to be exhausted by the mid-2030s. The government’s proposal intends to address financial sustainability, the adequacy of coverage and of benefit levels, as well as distributional equity through the introduction of a universal basic pension. The IMF team’s assessment is that the proposal is unlikely to fully meet its stated objectives. The proposal will worsen social security pension scheme’s financial sustainability and create additional financing needs. This will translate into an accelerated exhaustion of IVM reserves and, after the reserves are depleted, require significant adjustments to IVM parameters or higher government transfers. Old age income security may be more effectively addressed, with less pronounced fiscal side-effects, through improving coverage and compliance in IVM and expanding the reach of the social pension scheme. The primary instruments of achieving these goals are: (a) amending the rules undermining compliance with registration and wage reporting regulations in the contributory schemes, (b) improving coordination between tax and contribution collection agencies, (c) amending the regulations governing eligibility for noncontributory social pensions and (d) ensuring the noncontributory social pension is adequately financed.
Mr. Benedict J. Clements
,
Frank Eich
, and
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta

Abstract

Pension reform is high on the agenda of many advanced and emerging market economies, for many reasons. First, public pensions often constitute a large share of government expenditure. Second, population aging means that reforms would be needed just to keep pension spending from rising in the future. Third, in many economies, low or falling pension coverage will leave large segments of the population without adequate income in old age and at risk of falling into poverty. Although a number of studies have assessed the effects of pension reforms on fiscal sustainability, a systematic analysis of equity issues in pension systems—and how countries have grappled with these issues—has yet to be undertaken. This book brings together the latest research on equity issues related to pension systems and pension reforms in the post-crisis world. Some of the key issues covered include: the effect of pension systems on intergenerational equity and the impact of pension reforms on poverty, the effects of pension reform measures on fiscal sustainability and equity, and the fiscal consequences of achieving different equity goals. It also presents country case studies. The volume provides a rich menu of material to assist policymakers and academic audiences seeking to understand the latest research in this area, as well as the lessons and challenges for the design of reforms.

International Monetary Fund
This paper presents a Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Republic of Armenia’s Second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Armenia’s poverty and extreme poverty rates declined in 2006 to 26.5 percent and 4.1 percent of the population, respectively—results which surpassed PRSP-1 projections. Inequality also decreased to a rate below the PRSP-1 goal, as measured by a reduction in the Gini coefficient from 0.395 in 2004 to 0.369 in 2006. Prudent fiscal and monetary policies were instrumental in maintaining macroeconomic stability and contributing to poverty reduction.
International Monetary Fund
The report gives details of the economic analysis for the implementation of Chile's inflation targeting framework. It reviews the current state of liquidity in the Chilean fixed-income markets and developments and impediments to the supply of corporate bonds to the market. The paper considers a number of microstructure issues, transparency in the Over-the-Counter (OTC) market, addresses the role of public debt in facilitating development of the financial markets, and discusses a potential debt management framework that would support the development of a liquid public debt market.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Russia’s unexpectedly strong recovery since its 1998 crisis has left people wondering whether it is just a temporary result of higher oil prices and the postcrisis depreciation of the ruble or a sign ofdurable improvements in the much-battered economy. This question is addressed in the book Russia Rebounds, written by members of the IMF’s Russian team and due out later this year. John Odling-Smee, Director of the IMF’s European II Department, spoke with Laura Wallace about Russia’s prospects and its relationship with the IMF during the troubled 1990s. Odling-Smee, a U.K. national, joined the IMF in 1990 and took over responsibility for the IMF’s relations with former Soviet Union countries in 1992. Before that, he served in the U.K. Cabinet Office and Treasury for about 15 years.
International Monetary Fund
India rebounded strongly from its 1991 balance-of-payments crisis, aided by structural reforms and other policy adjustments. The government has sought to reinvigorate the process of structural and fiscal reform. The paper examines trends in interstate differences in rural poverty; reviews India's postal saving system and possible reform issues; describes and evaluates the current system of pensions and provident funds, and discusses reform options. The paper also briefly reviews the structure of and recent developments in the Indian foreign exchange market.
International Monetary Fund
The paper describes recent macroeconomic and financial developments and highlights a number of important medium- and longer-term policy issues. Empirical estimates of potential output growth for the Kyrgyz economy based on a number of different methodologies are presented. Competitiveness and trade policy, social policy issues, namely poverty alleviation and pension reform, are also taken up for discussion. Developments in the banking system since 1998 are described. Fiscal issues are discussed and also statistical data on economic indices are presented.

Abstract

The 14 papers that comprise this book, edited by Ke-young Chu and Sanjeev Gupta, provide a comprehensive review of the IMF's work on social safety nets. Part I provides a broad overview of the social concerns in structural policy and the basic work related to social safety nets. Part II deals with the design of social safety nets. Part III provides case studies on nine countries from different parts of the world.

Abstract

Ukraine has made impressive progress in restructuring and stabilizing its economy over the past two years, and yet much remains to be done to revive output and establish a market economy. The 16 papers included in this volume, edited by Peter K. Cornelius and Patrick Lenain, were presented at a seminar sponsored by the IMF and the World Bank in July 1996, which brought together government officials, academics, and staffs of international organizations to discuss a comprehensive medium- term strategy for Ukraine. The papers cover the medium-term macroeconomic framework; wages, poverty, and social safety net reform; private sector development; trade policies and sectoral reforms; and institution building and good governance.