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Social Science > Poverty and Homelessness

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Cover The Economic Impact of IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries
The Economic Impact of IMF-Supported Programs in Low-Income Countries
Yasemin Bal Gunduz
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Ms. Burcu Hacibedel
,
Ms. Linda Kaltani
,
Ms. Vera V Kehayova
,
Mr. Chris Lane
,
Mr. Christian Mumssen
,
Miss Nkunde Mwase
, and
Mr. Joseph Thornton

Abstract

This paper aims to assess the economic impact of the IMF’s support through its facilities for low-income countries. It relies on two complementary econometric analyses: the first investigates the longer-term impact of IMF engagement—primarily through successive medium-term programs under the Extended Credit Facility and its predecessors (and more recently the Policy Support Instrument)—on economic growth and a range of other indicators and socioeconomic outcomes; the second focuses on the role of IMF shock-related financing—through augmentations of Extended Credit Facility arrangements and short-term and emergency financing instruments—on short-term macroeconomic performance.

Keywords:
OP; IMF staff calculation; IMF engagement; IMF dummy; IMF support; IMF arrangement; Balance of payments need; Debt relief; Poverty reduction; Poverty reduction strategy; Current account balance; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; IMF program support; IMF program engagement; program engagement
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Poverty Estimates: A Sensitivity Analysis
Ms. Camelia Minoiu
and
Ms. Shatakshee Dhongde
Current estimates of global poverty vary substantially across studies. In this paper we undertake a novel sensitivity analysis to highlight the importance of methodological choices in estimating global poverty. We measure global poverty using different data sources, parametric and nonparametric estimation methods, and multiple poverty lines. Our results indicate that estimates of global poverty vary significantly when they are based alternately on data from household surveys versus national accounts but are relatively consistent across different estimation methods. The decline in poverty over the past decade is found to be robust across methodological choices.
Keywords:
WP; poverty estimate; sensitivity analysis; global poverty; household surveys; national accounts; income distribution; international poverty line; consumption poverty; density function; day poverty line; kernel density estimation; nonparametric estimation method; estimate poverty; Personal income; Consumption; Estimation techniques; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Kernel Density Estimation Based on Grouped Data: The Case of Poverty Assessment
Ms. Camelia Minoiu
and
Sanjay Reddy
We analyze the performance of kernel density methods applied to grouped data to estimate poverty (as applied in Sala-i-Martin, 2006, QJE). Using Monte Carlo simulations and household surveys, we find that the technique gives rise to biases in poverty estimates, the sign and magnitude of which vary with the bandwidth, the kernel, the number of datapoints, and across poverty lines. Depending on the chosen bandwidth, the $1/day poverty rate in 2000 varies by a factor of 1.8, while the $2/day headcount in 2000 varies by 287 million people. Our findings challenge the validity and robustness of poverty estimates derived through kernel density estimation on grouped data.
Keywords:
WP; poverty estimate; density estimate; kernel density estimation; headcount ratio; standard deviation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Institutions versus Geography: Subnational Evidence from the United States
Alma Romero-Barrutieta
and
Mr. Eric V. Clifton
Empirical studies of the impact of geography and institutions on growth and development at the international level have become common place, but the high degree of abstraction at that level has led to calls for subnational studies. This paper examines these issues for a region of the United States, Appalachia, where the specific factors at play are identified and measured thus obviating the need for instrumental variable techniques. The evidence suggests that initial conditions, including both geography and institutions, are very important for economic development, having significant effects lasting hundreds of years.
Keywords:
WP; parameter estimate; poverty rate