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Social Science > Poverty and Homelessness

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Cover Policy Papers
Macroeconomic Developments and Prospects For Low-Income Countries—2024
International Monetary Fund
and
World Bank
The outlook for Low-Income Countries (LICs) is gradually improving, but they face persistent macroeconomic vulnerabilities, including liquidity challenges due to high debt service. There is significant heterogeneity among LICs: the poorest and most fragile countries have faced deep scarring from the pandemic, while those with diversified economies and Frontier Markets are faring better. Achieving inclusive growth and building resilience are essential for LICs to converge with more advanced economies and meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Building resilience will also be critical in the context of a more shock-prone world. This requires both decisive domestic actions, including expanding and better targeting Social Safety Nets (SSNs), and substantial external support, including adequate financing, policy advice, capacity development and, where needed, debt relief. The Fund is further stepping up its support through targeted policy advice, capacity building, and financing.
Keywords:
Low-Income Countries; Heterogeneity; Debt vulnerability; Resilience building; Inclusive growth towards SDGs; Financing needs and external support; Social Safety Nets; poverty rate; means testing; poverty gap; aggregate poverty gap; SSNS spending; prospects in low-income countries; poverty threshold exit poverty; reform scenario; transparency policy; FAD financing tool; financial support; Poverty reduction; Household consumption; Inflation; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Rising Child Poverty in Europe: Mitigating the Scarring from the COVID-19 Pandemic
Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert
,
Iglika Vassileva
, and
Tingyun Chen
Child poverty increased dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020 alone, the number of children suffering from poverty in the EU increased by 19 percent, or close to 1 million. Left unaddressed, this would not only affect individuals’ life prospects and well-being but also have long-term economic implications. This paper argues that, to limit this potential scarring effect of the pandemic, policies should be deployed to reduce rapidly the number of children affected by poverty and mitigate the long-term impact of poverty. Reducing the number of children affected by poverty can be achieved by (i) labor policies and reforms that increase parental work and the labor income of poor parents and (ii) fiscal spending on family and children that can have a powerful and immediate impact. These policies need to be complemented by public investment in education and childcare, health, and housing to mitigate the long-term impact of child poverty.
Keywords:
child poverty; EU assistance; scarring effect; C. measuring poverty; summary plot; labor income; COVID-19; Income; Poverty reduction; Social protection spending; Europe
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Options to Strengthen the Social Safety Net in Japan: Japan
Zhiyong An
and
Kohei Asao
Japan’s unemployment rate remains relatively low compared to other OECD countries. However, Japan’s poverty rate among the working-age population is one of the higher ones among OECD countries. The public assistance program in Japan does not provide adequate income support for the working poor and creates inherent work disincentives. In this context, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) warrants consideration to strengthen the social safety net and relieve poverty of the working poor in Japan. This paper provides an overview of the theoretical and practical issues of EITC, aiming to support its potential introduction in Japan.
Keywords:
Social safety net; working poor; inequality; public assistance; in-work benefits; Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC); Japan; program in Japan; public assistance program; Japan's poverty rate; Japan's unemployment rate; EITC program; Income; Wages; Employment; Social assistance spending; Income tax systems
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
IMF Engagement on Social Safety Net Issues in Surveillance and Program Work
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The International Monetary Fund’s engagement on social safety net (SSN) issues is likely to expand as member countries respond to growing challenges in the economic and fiscal landscape. SSNs play a crucial role in protecting households from poverty, promoting inclusive growth, and maintaining social stability. This technical note discusses (1) the different channels through which SSN spending may become macro-critical, (2) how to assess the importance of these channels, and (3) the types of policy responses that are appropriate and the trade-offs involved in choosing among them. To facilitate a more comprehensive assessment of SSN spending, the paper also examines the complementary role of labor market programs (for example, unemployment benefits and active labor market programs). The paper emphasizes the importance of early engagement and coordination with development partners with expertise on social safety nets and with different stakeholders when formulating policy advice.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Social Protection; Social Safety Nets; Spending adequacy; Spending Efficiency; Fiscal Sustainability; SSN spending; labor market program; benefit incidence; SSN program; Benefit-cost ratio; Social assistance spending; Income; Labor markets; Poverty reduction; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features
Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre
and
Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan
To shed light on the possible scarring effects from Covid-19, this paper studies the economic effects of five past pandemics using local projections on a sample of fifty-five countries over 1990-2019. The findings reveal that pandemics have detrimental medium-term effects on output, unemployment, poverty, and inequality. However, policies can go a long way toward alleviating suffering and fostering an inclusive recovery. The adverse output effects are limited for countries that provided relatively greater fiscal support. The increases in unemployment, poverty, and inequality are likewise lower for countries with relatively greater fiscal support and relatively stronger initial conditions (as defined by higher formality, family benefits, and health spending per capita).
Keywords:
pandemics; output; unemployment; poverty; inequality; fiscal support; informality; social expenditure; health expenditure.; increases in unemployment; copyright page; potential GDP; group four; expenditure group; COVID-19; Income inequality; Health care spending; Maternity and childcare benefit spending; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Poverty and Social Protection in Bulgaria
Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert
Absolute poverty has dropped markedly in Bulgaria but income inequality has increased substantially in the aftermath of the GFC. This increase is due to a rise in market income inequality that was compounded by a reduction in fiscal redistribution. The redistributive role of direct taxation has declined with the introduction of a flat tax and social spending is relatively low and decreasing (as a share of GDP), is concentrated on a few social risks, and experienced a decline in its redistributive efficiency. The COVID-19 crisis is likely to deepen income inequality, increasing the room for redistributive policies.
Keywords:
WP; share ratio; EU average; EU spending; inequality in Bulgaria; test level; cash income; Income inequality; Income; Income distribution; Fiscal redistribution; Europe; Eastern Europe; Inequality; Poverty; Social Protection; Bulgaria; European Union
Cover IMF Working Papers
Designing Fiscal Redistribution: The Role of Universal and Targeted Transfers
Mr. David Coady
and
Nghia-Piotr Le
There is a growing debate on the relative merits of universal and targeted social assistance transfers in achieving income redistribution objectives. While the benefits of targeting are clear, i.e., a larger poverty impact for a given transfer budget or lower fiscal cost for a given poverty impact, in practice targeting also comes with various costs, including incentive, administrative, social and political costs. The appropriate balance between targeted and universal transfers will therefore depend on how countries decide to trade-off these costs and benefits as well as on the potential for redistribution through taxes. This paper discusses the trade-offs that arise in different country contexts and the potential for strengthening fiscal redistribution in advanced and developing countries, including through expanding transfer coverage and progressive tax financing.
Keywords:
WP; income; cost; earned income; taxation framework; consumption taxation; transfer program; income tax schedule; efficiency cost; poverty impact; redistribution objective; means testing; income share; public spending; income redistribution objective; progressive tax; poverty line; Personal income; Income tax systems; Fiscal redistribution; Income inequality; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; East Africa; transfers; taxes; targeted; universal; income transfer
Cover IMF Working Papers
Household Consumption Volatility and Poverty Risk: Case Studies from South Africa and Tanzania
Mr. Matthieu Bellon
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
, and
Mr. Roberto Perrelli
Economic volatility remains a fact of life in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Household-level shocks create large consumption fluctuations, raising the incidence of poverty. Drawing on micro-level data from South Africa and Tanzania, we examine the vulnerability to shocks across household types (e.g. by education, ethnic group, and economic activity) and we quantify the impact that reducing consumption volatility would have on aggregate poverty. We then discuss coverage of consumption insurance mechanisms, including financial access and transfers. Country characteristics crucially determine which household-level shocks are most prevalent and which consumption-smoothing mechanisms are available. In Tanzania, agricultural shocks are an important source of consumption risk as two thirds of households are involved in some level of agricultural production. For South Africa, we focus on labor market risk proxied by transitions from formal employment to informal work or unemployment. We find that access to credit, when available, and government transfers can effectively mitigate labor market shocks.
Keywords:
WP; Tanzania; consumption volatility; food consumption; consumption fluctuation; consumption deviation; consumption level; counterfactual consumption allocation; consumption loss; Consumption; Income; Household consumption; Employment; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Poverty; South Africa
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Inequality and Poverty across Generations in the European Union
Tingyun Chen
,
Mr. Jean-Jacques Hallaert
,
Mr. Alexander Pitt
,
Mr. Haonan Qu
,
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Ms. Alaina P Rhee
,
Ms. Anna Shabunina
,
Mr. Jerome Vandenbussche
, and
Irene Yackovlev
This SDN studies the evolution of inequality across age groups leading up to and since the global financial crisis, as well as implications for fiscal and labor policies. Europe’s population is aging, child and youth poverty are rising, and income support systems are often better equipped to address old-age poverty than the challenges faced by poor children and/or unemployed youth today.
Keywords:
SDN; youth poverty; youth unemployment; IMF staff calculation; absolute poverty; labor market policy; Inequality; Poverty; Europe; Redistribution; income inequality; personal income; labor market institution; Income inequality; Personal income; Aging; Unemployment; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Pakistan: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Joint Staff Advisory Note
International Monetary Fund
The government of Pakistan completed its second full Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-II) in December 2008. PRSP-II builds on the first Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-I), which was adopted in December 2003, but is shaped by recent political and economic developments. Against this background, PRSP-II focuses on regaining macroeconomic stability and the growth momentum of 5–7 percent a year, while protecting the poor and vulnerable—objectives that are supported by the IMF’s Stand-By Arrangement and the World Bank’s proposed Poverty Reduction and Economic Support Operation.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; Pakistan; poverty diagnostic; headcount rate; poverty scorecard; cash management; poverty headcount; government of Pakistan; government's strategy; poverty measurement; district governments' capability; Poverty reduction strategy; Social assistance spending; Poverty reduction; Global