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Social Science > Poverty and Homelessness

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Will the Economic Impact of COVID-19 Persist? Prognosis from 21st Century Pandemics
Johannes Emmerling
,
Davide Furceri
,
Francisco Líbano Monteiro
,
Mr. Prakash Loungani
,
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
,
Pietro Pizzuto
, and
Massimo Tavoni
COVID-19 has had a disruptive economic impact in 2020, but how long its impact will persist remains unclear. We offer a prognosis based on an analysis of the effects of five previous major epidemics in this century. We find that these pandemics led to significant and persistent reductions in disposable income, along with increases in unemployment, income inequality and public debt-to-GDP ratios. Energy use and CO2 emissions dropped, but mostly because of the persistent decline in the level of economic activity rather than structural changes in the energy sector. Applying our empirical estimates to project the impact of COVID-19, we foresee significant scarring in economic performance and income distribution through 2025, which be associated with an increase in poverty of about 75 million people. Policy responses more effective than those in the past would be required to forestall these outcomes.
Keywords:
impulse response; effects of pandemic; list of pandemic; pandemic event; baseline estimate; impact of COVID-19; COVID-19; Greenhouse gas emissions; Income inequality; Income distribution; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Classifications of Countries Basedon their Level of Development: How it is Done and How it Could Be Done
Lynge Nielsen
The paper analyzes how the UNDP, the World Bank, and the IMF classify countries based on their level of development. These systems are found lacking in clarity with regard to their underlying rationale. The paper argues that a country classification system based on a transparent, data-driven methodology is preferable to one based on judgment or ad hoc rules. Such an alternative methodology is developed and used to construct classification systems using a variety of proxies for development attainment.
Keywords:
WP; balance of payments; country classification system; development country
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Peru: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Peru shows that during the years of strong growth and high commodity prices, the Peruvian authorities have conducted a prudent fiscal policy, maintaining a broadly neutral fiscal stance. During 2004–08, while the revenue-to-GDP ratio increased 3.7 percentage points, the expenditure ratio rose only 0.9 percentage points. Expenditure control focused on current spending and coincided with increasing government investment aimed at enhancing public access to infrastructure and social services. Fiscal policy has also outperformed budgets approved by congress, owing to higher-than-anticipated revenue, as well as the need to limit inflation pressures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; intervention; exchange rate; Peru; intervention function; net-short term position; commodity output; foreign exchange intervention; reserve buffer; revenue capacity; Credit; Exchange rates; Fiscal stance; Currencies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Waiver of Performance Criterion: Staff Report; and Press Release on the Executive Board Consideration
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility for Armenia. Armenia’s economy performs strongly. All end-December 2006 quantitative and all but one structural performance criteria were observed. The main policy challenges are to broaden economic growth, raise tax revenues, and manage large foreign exchange inflows. Fiscal policy remains appropriate. Meeting the ambitious 2007 revenue target will require broadening the tax base and strengthening administration. The stance of monetary policy is appropriate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PRGF loan; PRGF arrangement; PRGF-supported program; government plan; government finance statistics yearbook; Monetary base; Exchange rates; Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Armenia: Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Waiver of Performance Criterion
International Monetary Fund
The staff report for the Second Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility focuses on the Republic of Armenia’s economic environment and policy discussion. Financial sector reforms will focus on improving corporate governance, strengthening regulation and supervision, and deepening financial intermediation. Price developments should be monitored closely and monetary policy tightened further should inflation pressures increase. The authorities’ plan to subsidize the local gas supplier to limit gas tariff increases for end-users is cause for concern.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PRGF loan; PRGF arrangement; PRGF-supported program; SDR; banking system; poverty rate; Monetary base; Exchange rates; Global
Cover Cambodia
Cambodia
Rebuilding for a Challenging Future
Mr. Sumio Ishikawa
,
Ms. Sibel Beadle
,
Mr. Damien Eastman
,
Ms. Srobona Mitra
,
Mr. Alejandro Lopez Mejia
,
Ms. Wafa F Abdelati
,
Mr. Koji Nakamura
,
Mr. Il Houng Lee
,
Ms. Sònia Muñoz
,
Mr. Robert P. Hagemann
,
Mr. David T. Coe
, and
Ms. Nadia Rendak

Abstract

Cambodia's reconstruction and reform efforts have spanned almost 25 years following the Khmer Rouge period, which ended in 1979. Economic reforms began in earnest in the early 1990s, but reform efforts were beset by ongoing internal tensions and civil unrest. Although external factors, including sizable aid inflows and a trade agreement with the United States, helped boost growth in the past decade, the country remains one of the poorest in the region. The current coalition government has announced a strategy aimed at revitalizing economic reforms, and in 2004 Cambodia formally joined the World Trade Organization. But elimination of the garment quota system under the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing is exposing an underlying deterioration in competitiveness, which, coupled with slow growth in the agriculture sector and other structural obstacles to private sector growth, has resulted in a medium-term outlook that remains uncertain.

Keywords:
ISI; SI; government; FDI inflow; judicial system; CPI inflation; garment export; growth performance; Legal support in revenue administration; Currencies; Exports; Exchange rates; Asia and Pacific; Southeast Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East; Global; A. dollarization trend; inequality poverty decomposition; Aid flows
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
The strategy underlying the Arusha agreement envisaged a three-year transition period, involving further national reconciliation steps, implementation of lasting power-sharing arrangements, and initiation of national reconstruction. To overcome poverty, Burundi should diversify its economy and establish new sources of economic growth. The increasing regional integration will also help to accelerate economic growth. The parallel market in Burundi is still sizable, and the exchange rate differential remains a source of financial distortion. The statistical data of economic indices of Burundi are presented in this paper.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Burundi; government; peace process; market; exchange rate; foreign currency; U.S. dollar; Arusha agreement; Exchange rate arrangements; Exchange rates; Currency markets; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bangladesh: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix examines Bangladesh’s nonfinancial state-owned enterprises. The paper argues that, given the overall policy environment and external vulnerabilities, the usefulness of the fixed exchange rate system in Bangladesh has run its course. Greater exchange rate flexibility is needed to ensure that the exchange rate sends appropriate market signals, and to enhance the authorities’ ability to address more effectively and timely both domestic imbalances and external real shocks arising from a rapidly changing global environment. The paper also outlines the structure and recent performance of the commercial banking sector.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; bank; production function; Bangladesh banking system; TFP growth; SOEs performance; is total factor productivity; physical capital accumulation; SOEs investment program; authorities' adherence; asset quality; Exchange rate arrangements; Privatization; Commercial banks; Exchange rate flexibility; Global; South Asia
Cover IMF Policy Discussion Papers
Challenges in Expanding Development Assistance
Mr. Peter S. Heller
and
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
This paper highlights the macro and microeconomic challenges associated with success of the effort to mobilize 0.7 percent of GNP for official development assistance (ODA). To promote achievement of the Millennium Development Goals, enhanced ODA must be as productive as possible. In weighing the distribution of enhanced ODA among countries, the paper emphasizes the need to limit potentially adverse “real transfer effects.” It recommends a multi-pronged approach to ODA that includes, inter alia, in addition to direct bilateral transfers, enhanced use of trust funds and the financing of global public goods.
Keywords:
PDP; recipient country; country partnership; donor country; low income; transition country; ODA; poverty; absorptive capacity; international public goods; country market; distributional criterion; public goods; commitments of the European Union; countries of the world; Personal income; Real exchange rates; Extra-budgetary funds; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, June 2002
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This paper highlights that despite unprecedented gains in living standards in some countries over the past few decades, poverty continues as a harsh reality in too much of the developing world. The causes lie in part with poor country governments that have not followed through on the policies and programs needed to accelerate growth and eradicate poverty. But they also reflect the uneven record of development assistance and protectionist trade policies and agricultural subsidies in industrial countries, which have dampened profitable investment and growth in the developing world.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; government; debt; oil fund; poverty count; exchange rate volatility; policy development; Johannesburg summit; Poverty reduction strategy; Poverty reduction; Value-added tax; Exchange rates; Global; Africa; Europe; Eastern Europe; Baltics