Social Science > Poverty and Homelessness

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Elin Baldárrago
and
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
While trade integration has been an engine of global growth and prosperity, as suggested by theory, some sectors have been negatively affected by increased import competition. We test if this negative effect is significant in a context of high intranational migration, as theory indicates that labor mobility could reduce it. We focus on the 2004-14 period of trade liberalization in Peru (a major beneficiary of trade integration), which allows for methodological improvements relative to similar studies. We find that districts competing with liberalized imports experienced significantly lower growth in consumption per capita despite some emigration in response to increased import competition. This underscores the need to support the “losers of trade liberalization” even amidst high labor mobility.
Petia Topalova
This paper uses the 1991 Indian trade liberalization to measure the impact of trade liberalization on poverty, and to examine the mechanisms underpinning this impact. Variation in sectoral composition across districts and liberalization intensity across production sectors allows a difference-in-difference approach. Rural districts, in which production sectors more exposed to liberalization were concentrated, experienced slower decline in poverty and lower consumption growth. The impact of liberalization was most pronounced among the least geographically mobile, at the bottom of the income distribution, and in Indian states where inflexible labor laws impeded factor reallocation across sectors.
Mr. Robert Gillingham

Abstract

The Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) is used by the IMF to provide support for countries’ implementation of their poverty reduction and growth strategies. A key requirement in the design of PRGF programs is understanding the effects of reform program measures on vulnerable groups—particularly the poor—and how to devise measures to mitigate any negative effects. Poverty and social impact analysis (PSIA) is a critical instrument for pursuing this goal. The IMF has therefore established a small group of staff economists to facilitate the integration of PSIA into PRGF-supported programs. In this book, the group’s members review analytical techniques used in PSIA as well as several important topics to which PSIA can make valuable contributions. These reviews should prove useful and interesting to readers interested in PSIA in general and the IMF’s PSIA efforts in particular.

International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.
Sarosh Sattar
and
Mr. Clinton R. Shiells

Abstract

The CIS-7 Initiative was launched in 2002 and endorsed by ministers from the CIS-7 and donor countries, with the objective of promoting poverty reduction, economic growth, and debt sustainability among the seven poorest countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This volume draws from the follow-up conference held in Lucerne, Switzerland, in January 2003. The objective of this conference was to achieve an understanding of the development agenda in the seven countries and the key policy measures to be taken by the governments and donors to improve future prospects for the countries’ populations.

International Monetary Fund
This paper provides an analysis of important factors that have affected the Angolan economy in recent years. The paper summarizes political developments since 1992 and provides an overview of developments in each major sector of the economy. The paper surveys the trade regime and reform priorities affecting it, summarizes available information on poverty, and describes issues affecting development of the diamond sector, formerly a mainstay of the Angolan economy. The paper also provides a technical analysis of the authorities’ current monetary rule, and a summary of the tax system.
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes economic developments in Madagascar during the 1990s. The paper highlights that Madagascar achieved financial stabilization in 1996 owing to the stepwise implementation of sweeping reforms that started in 1994 with the establishment of an interbank foreign exchange market. The paper focuses on selected aspects of Madagascar’s medium-term economic strategy, deals with poverty issues in Madagascar, and provides an analysis of the Malagasy civil service and a strategy for its reform. The paper also examines Madagascar’s trade regime and export processing zone.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper finds scope for some optimism that the empirical modeling of exchange rates will someday lead to significantly better-than-random explanations. The first part of the paper focuses on the relationships among exchange rates, national price levels, interest rates, and international balances of payments and provides perspectives on some elements of truth about these relationships that are consistent with the past decade of modeling failures. The lessons emphasize the importance of analyzing exchange rates within complete macroeconomic frameworks and of assuming that expectations are formed in ways consistent with the structural models or with information that can be easily extracted from time series of relevant variables. The open issues include the questions of whether it is adequate or appropriate to treat assets as perfect substitutes or, equivalently, to use the uncovered interest rate parity hypothesis. To the extent that efforts are devoted to modeling exchange rates in general equilibrium frameworks that do not treat assets as perfect substitutes, a second open issue is how to distinguish assets and to specify a basis for portfolio preferences that has solid microeconomic foundations.