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Social Science > Poverty and Homelessness

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Pandemic, Poverty, and Inequality: Evidence from India
Surjit Bhalla
,
Karan Bhasin
, and
Mr. Arvind Virmani
The paper presents estimates of poverty [extreme poverty PPP$1.9 and PPP$3.2] and consumption inequality in India for each of the years 2004-5 through the pandemic year 2020-21. These estimates include, for the first time, the effect of in-kind food subsides on poverty and inequality. Extreme poverty was as low as 0.8 percent in the pre-pandemic year 2019, and food transfers were instrumental in ensuring that it remained at that low level in pandemic year 2020. Post-food subsidy inequality at .294 is now very close to its lowest level 0.284 observed in 1993/94.
Keywords:
Poverty Measurement; Pandemic; food transfer; consumption inequality; consumption expenditure; poverty PPP; estimates of poverty; Consumption; Income inequality; Agricultural commodities; Household consumption; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Commodity Cycles, Inequality, and Poverty in Latin America
Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan
,
Sandra Lizarazo
,
Marika Santoro
,
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
, and
Mr. Mauricio Vargas
Over the past decades, inequality has risen not just in advanced economies but also in many emerging market and developing economies, becoming one of the key global policy challenges. And throughout the 20th century, Latin America was associated with some of the world’s highest levels of inequality. Yet something interesting happened in the first decade and a half of the 21st century. Latin America was the only region in the World to have experienced significant declines in inequality in that period. Poverty also fell in Latin America, although this was replicated in other regions, and Latin America started from a relatively low base. Starting around 2014, however, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit, poverty and inequality gains had already slowed in Latin America and, in some cases, gone into reverse. And the COVID-19 shock, which is still playing out, is likely to dramatically worsen short-term poverty and inequality dynamics. Against this background, this departmental paper investigates the link between commodity prices, and poverty and inequality developments in Latin America.
Keywords:
latin America; Commodity Cycles; Inequality; Poverty; Equilibrium Models; commodity exporter; commodity cycle; IMF staff calculation; commodity price boom; natural resource; commodity endowment; Headcount ratio; poverty in Latin America; Income inequality; Income; Income distribution; South America; Central America; Western Hemisphere; Caribbean
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Seizing the Momentum
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

Keywords:
REO; country abbreviation; commodity exporter; commodity; tourism dependent; IMF staff calculation; commodity price; Fiscal consolidation; Inflation; Income inequality; Caribbean; Global; Central America; South America; Western Hemisphere; inflation expectation; nominal GDP; central bank credibility; headline inflation
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
Seizing the Momentum
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.

Abstract

The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook, however, medium-term prospects are tilted downwards. Growth prospects for advanced economies are subdued and many emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow in per capita terms more slowly than advanced economies, raising concerns about income convergence. While risks appear broadly balanced in the near term, they skew to the downside over the medium term, including a possible sharp tightening of financial conditions, waning popular support for global economic integration, growing trade tensions and risks of a shift toward protectionist policies, and geopolitical strains.

Keywords:
REO; country abbreviation; commodity exporter; commodity
Cover IMF Working Papers
Syria’s Conflict Economy
Jeanne Gobat
and
Ms. Kristina Kostial
Five years into the ongoing and tragic conflict, the paper analyzes how Syria’s economy and its people have been affected and outlines the challenges in rebuilding the economy. With extreme limitations on information, the findings of the paper are subject to an extraordinary degree of uncertainty. The key messages are: (1) that the devastating civil war has set the country back decades in terms of economic, social and human development. Syria’s GDP today is less than half of what it was before the war started and it could take two decades or more for Syria to return to its pre-conflict GDP levels; and that (2) while reconstructing damaged physical infrastructure will be a monumental task, rebuilding Syria’s human and social capital will be an even greater and lasting challenge.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; financial system; U.S. dollar; foreign currency; central bank; Syrian pound; Macroeconomics; Economic Development; Syria; government debt market; government control; Syria's government institution; government obligation; Infrastructure; Agricultural commodities; Oil; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burundi: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Second Implementation Report
International Monetary Fund
The implementation of the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Framework (GPRSF) first describes the characteristics of poverty in Burundi before proceeding to review progress made in terms of each strategic axis. The analysis of macroeconomic performance, including the real sector, inflation, budgetary framework, the real sector [sic], and currency completes this report. In this context of extreme poverty and given the link between population numbers and poverty reduction, it is crucial that issues related to demographic pressure be clearly taken into account in all development programs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; private sector; U.S. dollar; civil society; exchange rate; financial support; nominal GDP; real GDP; land tenure; palm oil; human resources; natural resource; Agricultural commodities; Global; East Africa; Southern Africa; Central Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Côte d’Ivoire: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Joint Staff Advisory Note
International Monetary Fund
This Joint Staff Advisory Note focuses on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Côte d’Ivoire, and discusses poverty trends, the PRSP’s strategic pillars, and key outcomes sought, including a sound macroeconomic framework, and monitoring and evaluation arrangements. IMF staff supports the authorities’ plans to link the strategic priorities of the PRSP with budgetary allocations and processes. The IMF staff also agrees with the assessment of poverty made in the PRSP, and urges an immediate and focused effort to reverse the rising trend in poverty.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PRSP estimate; PRSP implementation; PRSP target; PRSP project; PRSP secretariat; Poverty reduction strategy; Agricultural commodities; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper-Progress Report
International Monetary Fund
This report describes the progress made in implementing the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper for Sierra Leone covering the period 2005–07. Efforts to reform the public sector were not successful. Management and Functional Reviews were conducted for several ministries, departments, and agencies but the recommendations were not implemented. A Senior Executive Service program was also developed but government and development partners could not agree on an implementation strategy and therefore the funds required for implementation were not provided.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; line item; job creation; management system; cash budget; financial support; government programme; public funds; trade diversion; discretionary government expenditure; government of Sierra Leone; government approval; girl child support policy; government consumer; Agricultural commodities; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burkina Faso: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Annual Progress Report Joint Staff Advisory Note
International Monetary Fund
This annual progress report reviews the joint staff advisory note on Burkina Faso’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs). IMF staff highlights the importance of increasing public revenue mobilization and strengthening expenditure management and efficiency, and securing financing in the form of grants, which would create space for an increase in pro-poor spending. Increasing spending on basic services and enhancing the management and efficiency of public expenditure in health and education, and continued progress on decentralization are critical to achieve the PRS public service delivery targets.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; APR note; government increase effort; APR detail; APR point; public finance; government's effort; control institutions of the State; Poverty reduction strategy; Budget planning and preparation; Agricultural commodities; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper: Joint Staff Advisory Note
International Monetary Fund
This Joint Staff Advisory Note provides World Bank and IMF staff analysis, and advices on key priorities to be strengthened during the implementation of the second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-2) in Mauritania. The PRSP-2 conveys an ambitious poverty reduction strategy based on a set of sound macroeconomic, structural, and sectoral policies to be implemented by 2015. The achievement of the PRSP-2 objectives will be difficult and will require a better prioritization in the context of absorptive capacity constraints and increasing and highly volatile public resources.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; PRSP-2; authority; PRSP call; poverty diagnosis; poverty incidence; oil revenue; poverty analysis; poverty assessment; government of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania; Poverty reduction strategy; Poverty reduction; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Global