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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Evolution of Remittances to CAPDR Countries and Mexico During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Aleksandra Babii
,
Ms. Alina Carare
,
Dmitry Vasilyev
, and
Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov
Traditional models relying on standard variables like the U.S. Hispanic unemployment rate fared well in explaining remittances to CAPDR and Mexico during the pre-pandemic period. However, they fail to predict the sustained growth in remittances since June 2020, including the significant increase in the average amount remitted. Using data from over 300 remittances corridors (from 23 U.S. states to 14 Salvadoran departments), we find that this increase is primarily explained by the dynamics of U.S. states real wages, as well as more temporary factors like U.S. unemployment relief (including the extraordinary pandemic support), U.S. states mobility, and COVID-19 infections at home. The paper also analyses what role the change in the modes of transmission of remittances, additional U.S. fiscal stimulus and U.S. labor market developments, especially in the sectors were CAPDR and Mexican migrants preponderantly work, play in explaining aggregate remittances growth.
Keywords:
COVID-19 pandemic; migrant remittances; international migration; remittances dynamics; B. panel Vector Autoregression Model; remittances growth; evolution of remittance; remittances to CAPDR country; Remittances; Real wages; COVID-19; Migration; Unemployment; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Defying the Odds: Remittances During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
,
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
,
Mr. Saad N Quayyum
, and
Vigninou Gammadigbe
This paper provides an early assessment of the dynamics and drivers of remittances during the COVID-19 pandemic, using a newly compiled monthly remittance dataset for a sample of 52 countries, of which 16 countries with bilateral remittance data. The paper documents a strong resilience in remittance flows, notwithstanding an unprecedent global recession triggered by the pandemic. Using the local projection approach to estimate the impulse response functions of remittance flows during Jan 2020-Dec 2020, the paper provides evidence that: (i) remittances responded positively to COVID-19 infection rates in migrant home countries, underscoring its role as an important automatic stabilizer; (ii) stricter containment measures have the unintended consequence of dampening remittances; and (iii) a shift from informal to formal remittance channels due to travel restrictions appears to have also played a role in the surge in formal remittances. Lastly, the size of the fiscal stimulus in host countries is positively associated with remittances as the fiscal response cushions the economic impact of the pandemic.
Keywords:
Remittances; COVID-19; Shocks; impulse response function; infection rate; home economy; remittance flow; corridor data; Fiscal stimulus; Migration; Inward remittances; Global
Cover Policy Papers
2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on The Surveillance Priority Preempting and Mitigating Spillovers
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The Fund has a range of modalities and tools to cover spillovers. However, there remains scope to enhance synergies between global and country-specific spillover coverage and to foster cross-country dialogue. Practical guidance and enhanced information-sharing would also allow for more systematic surveillance of spillovers. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the need to continue expanding the research frontier covering new spillovers and channels and developing new tools and data sets. Therefore, filling these remaining gaps in the Fund’s spillover work would allow for a more coordinated and evenhanded surveillance of spillovers.
Keywords:
spillover discussion; WEO spillover chapter; spillover coverage; transparency policy; Policy spillover; Spillovers; COVID-19; International monetary system; Migration; Financial sector stability; Global; Trade tensions
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Colombia highlights that with the disruptions associated with the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and with lower oil prices, real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by 2.4 percent in 2020. In the near term, disruptions associated, directly and indirectly, with the pandemic are expected to generate a recession of -2.4 percent in 2020. Weaker domestic demand from the shutdown efforts is expected to partially offset lower external demand and commodity prices, such that the current account deficit is projected to rise to 4.7 percent of GDP. In the wake of exceptional shocks and risks, recent monetary easing is welcomed by the IMF and accommodation should continue to support the economy if underlying inflation and inflation expectations remain moderate. Continued liquidity support should be provided as required, and available capital buffers in the banking system should be used as needed. All available space under the fiscal rule can be used to meet unforeseen health expenditures and for countercyclical spending to further support the economy through recession.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; inflation expectation; Banco de la República; monetary policy interest rate; fully-fledged inflation targeting regime; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Oil prices; Global; COVID-19; Migration
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This issue of Finance & Development discusses link between demographics and economic well-being. In the coming decades, demographics is expected to be more favorable to economic well-being in the less developed regions than in the more developed regions. The age structure of a population reflects mainly its fertility and mortality history. In high-mortality populations, improved survival tends to occur disproportionately among children. The “demographic dividend” refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital accumulation. Population aging is the dominant demographic trend of the twenty-first century—a reflection of increasing longevity, declining fertility, and the progression of large cohorts to older ages. Barring a change in current trends, the industrial world’s working-age population will decline over the next generation, and China’s working-age population will decline as well. At the same time, trends toward increased labor force participation of women have played out with, for example, more women than men now working in the United States.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance & Development, March 2020
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
Finance & Development
Keywords:
FD; F&D; country; shrinking population; tried-and-tested policy solution; interest rate; policy choices matter