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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Cover IMF Working Papers
How Do Transaction Costs Influence Remittances?
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
and
Patrick A. Imam
Using a new quarterly panel database on remittances (71 countries over the period 2011Q1- 2020Q4), this paper investigates the elasticity of remittances to transaction costs in a high frequency and dynamic setting. It adds to the literature by systematically exploring the heterogeneity in the cost-elasticity of remittances along several country characteristics. The findings suggest that cost reductions have a short-term positive impact on remittances, that dissipates beyond one quarter. According to our estimates, reducing transaction costs to the Sustainable Development Goal target of 3 percent could generate an additional US$32bn in remittances, higher that the direct cost savings from lower transaction costs, thus suggesting an absolute elasticity greater than one. Among remittance cost-mitigation factors, higher competition in the remittance market, a deeper financial sector, and adequate correspondent banking relationships are associated with a lower elasticity of remittance to transaction costs. Similarly, remittance cost-adaptation factors such as enhanced transparency in remittance costs, improved financial literary and higher ICT development coincide with remittances being less sensitive to transaction costs. Supplementing the panel analysis, the use of micro data from the USA-Mexico corridor confirm that migrants facing higher transaction costs tend to remit less, and that this effect is less pronounced for skilled migrants and those that have access to a bank account.
Keywords:
Remittances; Transaction Costs; Elasticity; Migration; elasticity of remittance; remittance market; remittances flow; remittance cost; cost-mitigation factor; Income; Exchange rates; Correspondent banking; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Impact of Remittances on Natural Rate of Dollarization—Trends in Caucasus and Central Asia
Rocio Gondo
,
Altynai Aidarova
, and
Mr. Manmohan Singh
This paper discusses migration and remittances trends, and calculates the natural (or benchmark) level of dollarization in Caucasus, Central Asia and others in the region. This natural level of dollarization is conceptually linked to the currency allocation in a portfolio of deposits to maximize welfare, in line with Ize and Levy Yeyati (2003). The fall in remittances due to the economic slowdown since the spread of COVID-19 affects the macroeconomic fundamentals that determine demand for foreign currency deposits. We calculate the natural dollarization level by integrating structural macroeconomic characteristics. We show that despite the reduction in deposit dollarization, there is still a gap with respect to the natural level of dollarization, especially in a scenario of (persistent) lower remittance inflows.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; deposit dollarization; natural rate of dollarization; Russia; COVID; remittances; Central Asia; Caucasus; remittance inflow; dollarization policy; benchmark dollarization; dollarization level; exchange rate depreciation; Dollarization; Exchange rates; Currencies; Income; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus; loan dollarization rate; Migration
Cover IMF Working Papers
Remittances in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia: the Gravity Model
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
Remitances are an important source of external financing in low- and middle-income countries. This paper uses the gravity model to analyze remittance flows in Russia and Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries. Standard gravity determinants, such as GDP in sending and recieiving countries, bilateral distance, existence of common borders and common official language, fit remittance flows well. Remittances also react to inflation and exchange rate movements in recipient countries to sustain their purchasing power. In line with the altruism hypothesis, remittances flow to countries with higher age dependency ratio. Remittances are countercyclical and help stabilize outputs in recipient countries. However, global shocks resulting in sharp output losses of sending countries would lead to large volatility and decline of remittance inflows in recipient countries. The results of the analysis can be used to assess the impact of the COVID-19 shock on projected remittance flows into CCA.
Keywords:
WP; remittance; country; remittance flow; international remittances; migration; gravity model; recipient country; country j; bilateral remittance; pair level; sending country; Remittances; Gravity models; Oil prices; Exchange rates; Outward remittances; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia investigates the macroeconomic impact of remittances on long-run external sustainability and growth. The paper presents stylized facts pertaining to the characteristics of remittances in Macedonia, highlighting their countercyclicality and importance in sustaining the purchasing power of domestic agents. The paper reviews to help set up a theoretical framework for assessing their macroeconomic impact, highlighting the possible risk of “Dutch disease” developments. The paper uses a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model to empirically investigate both hypotheses of countercyclicality and Dutch disease effects and puts forward a few policy options that may be explored to better harness remittances to support investment and long-term growth. The paper suggests that strong political engagement in support of diaspora projects is a key point. The mobilization of diaspora savings for private and public investment would maximize the long-term benefits of remittances.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; remittance; GDP; Macedonia; financing; exchange rate; exogenous remittance; remittance transfer; central bank; workers' remittance; foreign currency; remittance shock; small business; FYR Macedonia; interest rate; excess demand; bond feature; Remittances; Outward remittances; Real exchange rates; Migration; Bonds; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Bangladesh: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the surprising strength of remittances in Bangladesh and other countries in South Asia and the Philippines in 2009. The empirical analysis suggests that the continued strong growth of remittances in these countries is related to the resilience of non-oil GDP growth in the GCC countries and the surge in the GCC countries’ hiring of migrant workers from South Asia during 2006–08. The remittances-to-GDP ratio in South Asia and the Philippines are likely to remain robust in the near term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; remittance; Bangladesh; exchange rate; current account norm; migrant; remittances to GDP ratio; U.S. dollar; host-country GDP; GCC country; RMG sector; merchandise export; Remittances; Current account; Current account balance; Migrant labor; Real effective exchange rates; South Asia; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exchange Rates and Wages in an Integrated World
Mr. Antonio Spilimbergo
and
Ms. Prachi Mishra
We analyze how the pass-through from exchange rate to domestic wages depends on the degree of integration between domestic and foreign labor markets. Using data from 66 countries over the period 1981–2005, we find that the elasticity of domestic wages to real exchange rate is 0.1 after a year for countries with high barriers to external labor mobility, but about 0.4 in countries with low barriers to mobility. The results are robust to the inclusion of various controls, different measures of exchange rates, and concepts of labor market integration. These findings call for including labor mobility in macro models of external adjustment.
Keywords:
WP; pay; unemployment rate; Migration; exchange rates; labor market integration; wage data; reservation wage; exchange rate movement; wages of immigrant; emigration rate; wage rate; Wages; Real exchange rates; Labor markets; Middle East; Eastern Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Emigrant Deposits in Cape Verde
International Monetary Fund
In the last decade Cape Verde has experienced a strong accumulation of emigrant deposits. These deposits have provided much needed foreign exchange to the country, adding support to the exchange rate peg. This paper studies the long-run determinants of emigrant deposits with respect to risk, wealth, and return variables, isolating speculative and altruistic motives underlying the accumulation of flows. The study suggests that the temporary character of recent emigration is responsible for the rise in the share of flows driven by altruism. Finally, the paper discusses policy implications in light of the empirical findings and the recent literature on this topic.
Keywords:
WP; emigrant deposit; deposit; ED flow; emigrant deposits indicator
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes macroeconomic fluctuations in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). The paper describes data, along with the estimation technique used to ensure stationarity of the data. The empirical regularities of macroeconomic fluctuations in the ECCU are described, examining the relationship between a set of macroeconomic time series and domestic output, for each of the six IMF members of the ECCU. The paper also explores the determinants of macroeconomic volatility in the ECCU.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECCU country; emigration loss; government; ECCU economy; ECCU government; member government; Migration; Exchange rate arrangements; Fiscal stance; Natural disasters; Caribbean; North America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
New Zealand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the effect of international migration on unemployment in New Zealand. The empirical results in this paper suggest that net migration inflows give rise to a fall in the unemployment rate. The paper estimates a system of equations including the unemployment rate, real wage, net migration rate, and labor force participation rate, taking into account the interdependence of the variables. It also examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on export firms’ decisions to hedge foreign exchange exposure.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; OECD labor market Data.; interest rate; consumer spending; productivity; migration inflow; OECD labor market data; boosting productivity; household debt; OECD standard; Migration; Aging; Exchange rates; Consumption; Australia and New Zealand
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
New Zealand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper presents an empirical comparison of New Zealand’s growth performance with that of Australia during the post-reform period. The paper shows that most of the divergence in income per capita between the two countries has been the result of lower accumulation of capital per hour worked, and to a lesser extent, lower efficiency in utilizing resources in New Zealand. The paper also examines how migration has affected the income and welfare of New Zealand nationals.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; exchange rate; price; pass-through; import price; exchange rate pass-through; wage difference; error correction model; household portfolio; Migration; Import prices; Exchange rates; Inflation; Exchange rate pass-through; Australia and New Zealand