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Social Science > Emigration and Immigration

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Why U.S. Immigration Matters for the Global Advancement of Science

Ruchir Agarwal

Patrick Gaulé

, and

Geoff Smith

This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network—representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge producers. Second, using novel survey data and hand-curated life-histories of International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists, we show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries—even after accounting for talent during one’s teenage years. Third, financing costs are a key factor preventing foreign talent from migrating abroad to pursue their dream careers, particularly for talent from developing countries. Fourth, certain ‘push’ incentives that reduce immigration barriers—by addressing financing constraints for top foreign talent—could increase the global scientific output of future cohorts by 42 percent. We concludeby discussing policy options for the U.S. and the global scientific community.

Keywords:: Immigration; Science; Talent; Universities; WP; IMO medalist; migrants to the U.S.; IMO participant; productivity regression; IMO point; Migration; Productivity; Income; Global

Type:: Journal Issue

Source Title:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2021: Issue 042

Series:: IMF Working Papers

Publisher:: International Monetary Fund

Publication Date:: 19 Feb 2021

Language:: English

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513570006.001

ISBN:: 9781513570006

Type:: Journal Issue

Source Title:: IMF Working Papers

Volume/Issue:: Volume 2021: Issue 042

Series:: IMF Working Papers

Publisher:: International Monetary Fund

Publication Date:: 19 Feb 2021

Language:: English

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513570006.001

ISBN:: 9781513570006

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Finance & Development, March 2020

International Monetary Fund. Communications Department

This issue of Finance & Development discusses link between demographics and economic well-being. In the coming decades, demographics is expected to be more favorable to economic well-being in the less developed regions than in the more developed regions. The age structure of a population reflects mainly its fertility and mortality history. In high-mortality populations, improved survival tends to occur disproportionately among children. The “demographic dividend” refers to the process through which a changing age structure can spur economic growth. It depends, of course, on several complex factors, including the nature and pace of demographic change, the operation of labor and capital markets, macroeconomic management and trade policies, governance, and human capital accumulation. Population aging is the dominant demographic trend of the twenty-first century—a reflection of increasing longevity, declining fertility, and the progression of large cohorts to older ages. Barring a change in current trends, the industrial world’s working-age population will decline over the next generation, and China’s working-age population will decline as well. At the same time, trends toward increased labor force participation of women have played out with, for example, more women than men now working in the United States.